Analysis: Timing, squad turnover and the arrival of a new manager are as important as talent for U20 players breaking into senior teams
A few weeks ago, I wrote that minor success is not a reliable predictor of future senior representation. The response was lively. Several people rightly pointed out that the senior intercounty team is a bottleneck and there is only so much room. Even if an underage team is stacked with talent, there is still only one senior team they can graduate to and there are a finite amount of places. It’s like a roundabout with traffic coming in from every road (different years of underage teams) - everyone’s indicating to get in, but the circle is already full.
All that said, there has long been a perception that the U21 (now U20) grade is a better indicator, than minor, of who will play senior football for Kerry. The logic is obvious: players are older, stronger and closer to senior standard. But the numbers, and the patterns behind them, tell a more complex story of the county. This follow-on to the minor piece looks at that story in more detail and at one crucial factor entirely outside a player’s control: timing.
Measuring the yield
From 1994 to 2024, I tracked every Kerry U20/U21 panel and counted how many eventually started a senior championship match for Kerry. For the record, Kerry won All-Ireland U21 titles in 1995, 1996, 1998, and 2008. As with the minor article, players could only be counted once (their final year). For instance, Noel Kennelly was a four year Kerry U21 from 1997 to 2000, but was only counted in the 2000 crop.
Across those 31 seasons, the average yield is just over three starters per year. Some cohorts have produced no graduates - 2014, 2023, and 2024 have yet to deliver a senior championship starter - while others produced the backbone of a team, such as 1996 (10 players – numbers in brackets throughout indicate the number of players), 2011 (nine), and 2017 (nine).
The peaks: when the stars align
The most productive stretch came between 1995 and 1999, when Kerry won the U21 All-Ireland in 1995, 1996 and 1998. These years produced the core of the 2004 to 2009 golden era which saw six All-Ireland finals in six seasons and four Sam Maguires.
The 1996 team alone yielded 10 senior starters, the highest on record, many of whom won the 1997 All-Ireland and carried the team into the next decade.
Each significant spike in the past 30 years has come when a new manager arrived and fresh faces were needed
Other notable spikes came in 2011 (nine) - thrashed 2-24 to 0-8 by Cork in the Munster final that year, yet several were All-Ireland senior champions in 2014 - and 2017 (nine) - beaten by Galway in the All-Ireland semi-final, yet supplied several key players to the present squad.
The importance of timing
This is one of those occasions where the numbers do not give the context. On the surface, you'd think these spikes represented exceptional crops. However, the numbers don’t capture the role of luck and timing in a young player’s break. Each significant spike in the past 30 years has come when a new manager arrived and fresh faces were needed, often after senior retirements signalled the end of a managerial cycle.
Páidí Ó Sé's new tenure in 1996 brought in the 1995 and 1996 crop. Éamonn Fitzmaurice in 2012 introduced the 2011 group. Peter Keane in 2019 added more of the 2017 group, although Fitzmaurice had already begun integrating them in 2018. Keane’s arrival came just after more than 10 senior players had retired between 2013 and 2016. In each case, the door opened not just because of quality, but because circumstance happened to turn the key.
When the door stays shut
However, some years yield almost nothing. 2014, 2023 and 2024 have seen no senior starters to date. 2002, 2003, 2012, 2013, 2019, 2020 and 2021 have just one apiece. These low-yield years usually coincide with a settled, successful senior panel and management team. The 2020 and 2021 groups, for instance, have been trying to break into a team in its peak years. The starting side that beat Donegal in the 2025 All-Ireland final had an average age of 27.33, right in the sweet spot of a team's lifespan. The funnel narrows dramatically when a team is both experienced and winning.
For players, this can mean years of frustration or being limited to panel roles. Some patient players eventually break through, but history shows that for many, the window doesn’t open before they call it quits on their senior dreams.
The last major intake came from the 2017 cohort, and they remain the spine of the current team. Between 2018 and 2022, yields have been modest (one to four players), and the 2023–2024 cohort have yet to produce a starter.
This suggests Kerry could face a five year stretch with minimal senior turnover. That stability is good for results now and the current players, but bad news for those on the fringe and risky for succession planning. It can lead to sudden, mass retirements and a scramble to replace experience. This is precisely what happened at the end of the Kerry Golden Years era (1975–1986). A "famine" ensued where Kerry didn’t win an All-Ireland between 1986 and 1997.
How can teams deal with this replacement issue?
One partial solution to replacing players still performing above the level of those coming through is an extended development squad for players aged 21 to 25. This is a group beyond the U20 grade who are kept in a structured, high-performance environment. Several counties already run similar systems, giving players above the U20 grade but not yet ready for senior football tailored programmes. Éamonn Fitzmaurice introduced a version of this during his tenure.
The challenge is keeping players motivated during these "waiting years" and meeting the cost to the County Board. You are, in effect, running two senior teams. A formalised plan for this development squad could include strength and conditioning to senior standards; skills and tactical work aligned with the senior team and organised matches against other counties.
A player who started in the 2019 final against Dublin told me about the last 10 minutes of that drawn game. For him, it was a blur. The Dublin players, in contrast, seemed in total control. They were in their sixth final. No young player can shortcut those experiences. Those same Kerry players now have, in many cases, four finals behind them. They carry the same assured mindset Dublin had in 2019. A newer member of the extended Kerry panel simply does not have that experience. How could they?
Looking at the current age profile, the "ideal" time to be a Kerry U20 might be in three years' time, depending on the position they are vying for. But there is no ideal in sport. It is a game of cycles outside of the control of most. As much as we try to apply logic and reduce the role of chance, sometimes a player chasing the number 13 jersey is simply born in the wrong decade. Unless you’re David Clifford.
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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
