Will recognition of Palestine as a state make a real difference?

Analysis: The growing wave of recognition of Palestine marks a strategic turning point which could open new opportunities for Palestinian statehood

The recent recognition of Palestine by France has attracted global attention and has subsequently influenced the stance of the UK, Canada and several EU member states. This follows the recognition of Palestine as a state by Ireland in May 2024.

While most countries have welcomed these decisions, viewing them as important tools to pressure Israel to halt the genocide in Gaza, many pro-Palestinian groups see these acts of political recognition as merely symbolic and performative. The US and Israel oppose the recognition of Palestine, claiming it undermines rather than helps conflict resolution. Will this recent wave of recognition of Palestine make a real difference?

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From RTÉ Radio 1's This Week, will a promise by three G7 countries to recognise the State of Palestine change anything in Gaza?

What does diplomatic recognition mean?

Diplomatic recognition is seen as a double-edged phenomenon in world politics. It can lead to the birth or even the demise of a state. It can be the cause of both war and peace. It can be a source of justice, but it can also lead to discrimination and oppression. It can act as a constraint on expanding the state and international order, but it can also foster collective self-determination and liberation. In essence, it can reinforce existing state systems but also serve as an open space for normative change and emancipation.

The recognition of a state is loosely regulated in international law, and it has been subject to many debates and controversies. There is no consensus on who is entitled to statehood and recognition, who is authorised to recognise states, how many and whether diplomatic recognition makes states.

States do not have codified policies and often coat their political decisions with different normative and geopolitical justifications. Thus, recognition has always been and likely will continue to be a flexible political instrument: a bargaining chip for national interests, a retaliatory measure to discipline norm-breaking states, a symbol of shifting alliances, or, on the positive side, an empowering act to foster peace, justice, and address past injustices.

From RTÉ News, Canada plans to recognise the state of Palestine

'A powerful tool in diplomacy'

Yet diplomatic recognition has proven to be a powerful tool in diplomacy time and again. Opponents of Palestine recognition tend to minimise the significance of such acts, while supporters view it as insufficient to end the war, establish peace and achieve Palestinian statehood. But both are mistaken. Although recognition might be a performative speech act, it is not disconnected from the real world. It is a spoken and written declaration that creates new political realities and has tangible real-world consequences.

Recognition acts as a foundation for diplomatic relations. It is a commitment that forms contractual ties, sets expectations, and has legal and political consequences, paving the way for other connections. Therefore, contrary to sceptics, Palestine's recognition by Ireland, Norway, and Spain last year, along with the recent announcements of recognition by France, the UK, Canada, and others carries legal, diplomatic, and moral significance.

A stepping stone to full UN membership?

For states such as Palestine, membership of the United Nations is far more than a mere badge of diplomatic prestige. It is a vital bulwark against the coercion and marginalisation that non-member territories so often endure. As a collective recognition of statehood, UN membership confers not only moral legitimacy but tangible legal protections.

From RTÉ News, what does Ireland's formal recognition of the state of Palestine actually mean?

By contrast, states locked out of the UN fold - barred not by choice, but by the vetoes and veto-wielding politics of more powerful capitals - find themselves condemned to limbo. They are cut off from essential UN agencies and trade networks, vulnerable to annexation and isolation and prey to the geopolitical whims of patron states.

However, Palestine has been recognised bilaterally by more than 75% of UN member states. It warrants full UN membership on both normative and procedural grounds. Nonetheless, the US remains the main obstacle to full membership as it holds the veto power in recommending Palestine's admission to the UN General Assembly.

Yet, due to extensive bilateral recognition, primarily from Muslim states and the Global South, Palestine has held non-member Permanent Observer status at the UN since 2012, granting it nearly full membership rights and access to UN bodies and agencies. Now that France and the UK are likely to formalise their announced recognition of Palestine, the US will be the only UN Security Council permanent member to block Palestine's UN membership.

From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, Eithne Dodd speaks to Palestinians in Ireland about the Government's formal recognition of a Palestinian state

Recognition by France, the UK and other countries can be a game changer. It will lead to further isolation of Israel and make it harder for the US to continue supporting Israel's destructive policies unconditionally. It also indicates that European powers are capable of exercising their strategic autonomy from the US and are not merely vassals to the US grand strategy despite close transatlantic ties. The current wave of recognition may also have regional implications, where the EU might gradually distance itself from Israel in terms of trade, research, and security.

Furthermore, the growing support for Palestine sparked by the Gaza genocide, coupled with the increasing diplomatic recognition of the State of Palestine, may create opportunities previously thought unattainable. There will be heightened global focus on Israel's occupation and violence against Palestinians, alongside increased backing for the realisation of a viable Palestinian state. But, it is unlikely to secure full UN membership unless the US changes its position.

The increasing cost of independent statehood

While states might have an inalienable right to self-determination, their recognition by other states is unfortunately not a given. While some states or entities might be lucky and receive diplomatic recognition without much struggle, it is a very painful, unpredictable and costly endeavour for many groups. From Bangladesh and Eritrea to Timor-Leste, Kosovo and South Sudan, newly formed and recognised states have achieved their statehood only after enduring genocide-like repression by the base state.

The more states recognise Palestine, the more they become invested in supporting the realisation of Palestinian statehood

Palestine is perhaps an extreme case of securing gradual diplomatic recognition as compensation for decades-long suffering and injustices. The more states recognise Palestine, the more they become invested in supporting the realisation of Palestinian statehood. The power of recognition is not merely symbolic, but it can preserve the hope for statehood for cases such as Palestine. It can reverse the occupation of Palestinian territories and serve as moral compensation for the collective failure to protect civilians.

But as long as issues related to statehood and recognition remain unregulated and governed by arbitrary state practices, we are likely to witness more prolonged statehood conflicts and higher costs for diplomatic recognition.

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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ