Analysis: There are growing signs of division in the ranks, on issues such as conspiracy theories, the cost of living and foreign policy
Any Trump-watchers waiting for some cracks to show in the thus-far united entity that is MAGA-land may be taking note and reaching for the popcorn. Recently, there are signs of division in the ranks, on issues spanning from conspiracy theories to the economy and foreign policy. The 47th president is hardly the first leader to eventually cause loyalist dismay. As history demonstrates, such a trajectory from the poetry of promise to the prose of delivery is all but inevitable.
In 1930, Sigmund Freud's ground-breaking work Civilisation and its Discontents was publis hed. It considers, among much else, human unhappiness in contemporary civilisation. Almost a century on, the tensions between individual desires and societal demands continue to play out. In the current instance, it is Trump's MAGA base demonstrating their dissatisfaction with a range of political realities. Some of the president’s most devoted supporters are voicing their frustrations. Issues causing the greatest concern include the cost of living, aid to Ukraine and government handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, Wall Street Journal reports Trump's name was on 2003 birthday letter to Jeffrey Epstein
First and foremost is an issue that matters to all voters, regardless of political allegiance. Trump's trade war is hitting Americans in their pockets. Promises of short term pain being rewarded by long term gain are increasingly being met with frustration as 'Tariff Man’ outlined plans to reshape the nation’s economy. The MAGA base was willing to shoulder a temporary burden, but a measure of the consumer challenges ahead is the availability of a one-dollar option on the McDonalds menu. Come the next election day, there may not be one.
In June, US inflation rose to its highest level in months, and consumer prices inceased 2.7% on the previous year. Beyond small rises in petrol and food prices, there have been significant upsurges in the cost of imported goods such as clothes, shoes and electronics. Economist Eric Winograd explained that such developments are'scattered bits of the tariff inflation regime' filtering in.
As of mid July, the respected Silver Bullet website listed the top 10 US polling sources to show that the public disapproved more than approved of the president in each one. This is no surprise. In each of Trump's three presidential contests, he received less than 50% of the popular vote and his support has been steady rather than expanding . A key message of his 2024 campaign was a promise to improve the lot of the middle classes. As the Chairman of the Federal Reserve warns of price hikes and a slowing economy on the back of Trump’s tariffs, this flies in the face of those upbeat campaign pledges.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Today with Claire Byrne, are tariffs rattling the US economy?
Another cornerstone of MAGA support is based on Trump's America First foreign policy which prioritises a move away from distant wars. Therefore, the president’s recent change of heart regarding sending military aid to Ukraine has irked many.
To date, Trump’s sympathy and patience was clearly with Putin rather than Zelenskyy, thereby upending decades of US policy towards its traditional foe. Unnecessary expenditure and over-extension were considered Biden-esque priorities and so anathema to the MAGA president and his followers.
As of this week, there has been a change of message emanating from the White House. The president has now personally approved a $300 million military aid package for Kiev, while displaying disappointment, even annoyance, with the Russian leader for the first time. Experts have long watched in bewilderment as Trump appeared oblivious to the former KGB agent’s capacity for manipulation.
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From RTÉ News, Trump gives Russia 50 days to deal with Ukraine stalemate or face sanctions
The GOP position is mixed. Conservative stalwart Newt Gingrich wrote on X that 'American military aid to Ukraine should be dramatically increased in quantity, quality and freedom to use it anywhere – including in Russia.’ Some MAGA elites, many of whom view Putin as a strongman upholder of ‘traditional values’ were quick to criticise. Georgia Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Green complained on X that the president’s supporters ‘did not vote for more weapons to Ukraine.’ Right now, MAGA appears split in response to Trump’s about-face.
A particularly emotive flash-point for the more conspiracy-minded among the president's core supporters is the administration’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files. On the 2024 campaign trail, Trump said that he would release files relating to the deceased and disgraced financier and sex-offender should he win.
A recent government review concluded that Epstein died by suicide in 2019 and the FBI stated that there was no evidence that he had a 'client list.’ This reference was to the still unreleased Epstein files, which MAGA conspiracy theorists spent inordinate amounts of time speculating about possible political opponents mentioned within. Much to their chagrin, Attorney General Pam Bondi publicly shut down the claims.
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From RTÉ Behind the Story, former RTÉ presenter Caitríona Perry joins the team to discuss how conspiracies surrounding the release of the Epstein files mean trouble for Trump
As the more extreme elements among Trump’s right wing supporters increasingly demonstrated their frustration, the administration capitulated. On July 17th, the president announced that he has requested the release of grand jury testimony in relation to the trial.
This is a significant juncture between Trump and his fervent fans. Perhaps the acrimony will dissipate, and the MAGA base will continue to focus on the strengths of their leader or the seeds of discontent could grow. The psychoanalyst from Austria might remind us that the id of populist desire will inevitably one day meet the superego of institutional constraint. But gleeful liberals should beware: sex-trafficking conspiracy theories aside, an economic dip and a flip-flopping foreign policy benefits no-one - and an emboldened post-Trump MAGA movement does not bode well for the future.
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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
