Analysis: Kerry and Donegal have demonstrated exceptional shooting efficiency this year, particularly when it comes to vital two-point scores
By Kevin McDaid, Dundalk Institute of Technology and Michael Rogers, Bush Post Primary School
The introduction of the two-point arc has transformed Gaelic football. Teams can now quickly open or close gaps on the scoreboard with these long-range efforts, altering game momentum in moments. Although riskier, the double reward makes them a vital scoring weapon during periods of dominance.
Ahead of the All-Ireland semi-finals this weekend involving Kerry, Tyrone, Meath and Donegal, quarter-final performances revealed contrasting approaches to this new rule. Using a statistical model based on over 4,000 inter-county shots, we can measure how effectively elite teams convert scoring opportunities, including two-point attempts.
We need your consent to load this rte-player contentWe use rte-player to manage extra content that can set cookies on your device and collect data about your activity. Please review their details and accept them to load the content.Manage Preferences
From RTÉ GAA Podcast, Tomás Ó Sé and Ciarán Whelan join Jacqui Hurley to preview the All-Ireland SFC semi-finals and Tailteann Cup final.
The model predicts shot success by factoring in team level, shot location, whether it's a free or from open play, defensive pressure, and wind conditions. This produces an Expected Points (xP) value showing the average points each shot should yield, reflecting its difficulty.
For example, a two-point free by a top team from 40m has an 80% success rate, so 10 such shots would on average yield 8 scores for 16 points, giving an xP value of 1.6 points. If a team scored 9 of 10 such frees, their efficiency would be 18 points compared to the expected 16, yielding an efficiency of 1.1, or 10% above average.
Similarly, a two-point shot from play at 40m under low pressure from opponents has an xP of 0.98, dropping to 0.66 under high pressure. Speculative open-play attempts from 50m under high pressure yield xP of just 0.39. Elite teams build attacks to create shots with an xP of at least 0.4. Of the 267 shots taken in the quarter-finals, only 10 had an xP below 0.4, with just three of these scored.
From RTÉ Sport, highlights of Donegal's quarter-final win over Monaghan
Donegal's ruthless efficiency
Donegal beat Monaghan with a perfect two-point record, scoring all three attempts. Each was taken from open play within 45m, with a total xP of 2.4 points. The six-point return gave them an exceptional efficiency of 2.5 which is 150% above the average value of 1, and the highest of all semi-finalists. While the number of two-point shots created was low, Donegal will certainly aim to create more such opportunities, as their efficiency proves they will punish any defence that allows them these long-range efforts.
Tyrone' high volume and solid returns
Tyrone attempted the most two-point shots, scoring five of nine against Dublin with an impressive six different players shooting. Their shots shown below had a total xP of 6.8. Notably, Niall Morgan’s successful dead-ball attempt from 56m had an xP of just 0.4, illustrating his long-range mastery. The ten-point haul gave the team an efficiency of 1.5, giving them a shooting efficiency roughly 50% above the average for two-point attempts. In contrast, Dublin missed both their low-difficulty two-point attempts, giving an efficiency of 0 and highlighting their failure to exploit the new scoring rules.
Meath are all about the goals
Meath missed both their two-point attempts against Galway but compensated with goals to win. They created five goal-scoring opportunities, the most of any of the semi-finalists, resulting in two goals and a point at an impressive efficiency of 1.3, based on a total xP of 5.5. To challenge Donegal in the semi-final, they will look to both continue their accuracy in front of goal and also to create and convert more long-range opportunities.
Kerry's two-pointers from the big two
Jack O'Connor's side overcame Armagh with impressive shooting, particularly from distance. Kerry attempted eight two-point shots (xP=5.9), scoring five for an efficiency of 1.7, second only to Donegal. Sean O'Shea landed all three of his attempts at an outstanding efficiency of 2.6 – two and a half times the inter-county average.
From RTÉ Sport, highlights of Kerry's quarter-final win over Armagh
David Clifford scored two from three. Importantly, he was forced further out and placed under much higher defensive pressure, resulting in his three two-point shots having a lower combined xP of 1.8, compared to Sean’s three shots with an xP of 2.3 points. Unsurprisingly, Clifford still delivered an excellent efficiency of 2.3. Opponents must reduce Kerry’s two-point chances and increase defensive pressure on Kerry’s two key long-range shooters to curtail their threat.
Scoring bursts determine games
All four quarter-finals involved decisive scoring bursts. The clearest was Kerry’s second-half blitz against Armagh, where they scored 14 points from 13 shots, including two of three two-point efforts, between the 6th and 20th minutes. All shots in this period had an xP of 0.5 or higher, indicating high-quality build up play, combined with a ruthless efficiency of 1.8. Armagh failed to respond, missing both their shots in this period.
Ruthless efficiency was the theme of Kerry’s play throughout the entire quarter-final. Examining all shots in the game, Kerry’s total xP was 22.5, but they scored 32 points, giving them an outstanding efficiency of 1.4. Armagh actually did very well in general play with a total xP of 23.0, marginally higher than Kerry, but their average efficiency of just over 1 effectively cost them the game.
Donegal's match showed a similar pattern. Shane O'Donnell’s score ten minutes into the second half sparked a 15-point streak including a goal and a two-point score from 15 shots with an xP of 10.9, yielding an excellent efficiency of 1.4. While they finished with an excellent two-pointer from David Garland, Monaghan scored just one of their 11 shots during Donegal's purple patch. This was despite these having a total xP of 7.75, meaning average shooting would have kept them in contention. Overall, Monaghan had a total xP of 22.4 compared to Donegal’s 19.8, underlining how efficiency rather than chance creation proved decisive.
So who is going to win?
While favourites to progress to the final, Kerry and Donegal have relied less on overall dominance of play in the creation of shooting opportunities, and more on excellent shooting efficiency, particularly for two-point attempts. This weekend will reveal whether they can maintain this exceptional shooting standard in their drive for All-Ireland glory, or if Tyrone and Meath can put the shackles on them and upset the odds.
Follow RTÉ Brainstorm on WhatsApp and Instagram for more stories and updates
Dr Kevin McDaid is a lecturer in Computing and Data Analytics at Dundalk Institute of Technology, and a member of DkIT’s Regulated Software Research Centre. Michael Rogers is a Mathematics and PE teacher at Bush Post Primary School, Co Louth
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
