Analysis: Societal and demographic changes will have a major effect on how people experience and survive mass casualty and disaster events
By Mark Maguire, Maynooth University and Alexandre Rodde
On October 1st 2017, George Cook, a wheelchair user and father of two young children, was attending a country music festival in Las Vegas when a shooter opened fire from a nearby hotel window. The concertgoers scattered, but Cook could not maneuver his wheelchair to safety. He survived the horrifying mass shooting because Lorisa Loy, a nurse, risked her life to save his before going on to provide medical attention to other strangers.
Stories of heroism shine through the tragedy of mass casualty events. We have studied numerous such incidents, from mass shootings in North America to terrorism in East Africa, aiming to understand public behaviour and improve emergency responses.
From CBS This Morning, Lorisa Loy and George Cook recount their daring escape from the chaos of the Las Vegas mass shooting in October 2017
In many examples, heroic bystanders intervened decisively. Hundreds of people are alive today because veterans, retired firefighters, off-duty police, and nurses were present and chose to act. But our societies and populations are changing subtly yet radically, and the heroic bystander is threatened with extinction. What are these societal and demographic changes, and what will the future bring?
Globally, the share of older people in populations, 65 years and over, is growing rapidly, while the share of younger people is declining. In European countries, estimates of self-reported disability have also shot up. The prevalence of mobility-related disability increases with age. At the same time, obesity is increasing, too, especially among the young.
We will soon see a combination of two scenarios play out. In the future, when we travel to a city centre to attend a concert, sporting event or the like, one in five members of the public may have significantly diminished mobility. We are not prepared for this. Alternatively, those members of the public will not attend crowded events because of safety fears.
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From RTÉ Brainstorm, how to deal with traumatic events
In Las Vegas in 2017, George Cook was fortunate that the heroic nurse Lorisa Loy was nearby. However, he should not have been reliant on good fortune alone. Equality means that everyone should reasonably expect barrier-free participation in public life. We use "security equity" to describe the challenge of supporting equal participation by guaranteeing everyone makes it home afterwards. Security equity is a systemic matter. We cannot leave our fathers, mothers, friends, and relatives at the mercy of chance.
Before we tackle the security equity problem, we must first acknowledge a related and deeply serious challenge. The population that staffs our emergency services is also changing. The Western world is experiencing a massive recruitment and retention crisis in critical frontline areas like law enforcement, firefighting, and ambulance services.
Ireland has slowly woken up to the military and Garda Síochána recruitment crisis and is consequently struggling to find local solutions to an international problem. For example, Mark Maguire's recent study of military recruitment in the U.K. found that many traditional constituencies have seen a 100-300% decline in enlistments in just 10 years.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, reporter Jackie Fox examines the issue around the recruitment and retention crisis in the Defence Forces
From army recruitment in Australia to firefighters in France, fewer young people are choosing careers as frontline responders. We must accept that Lorisa Loy will not be there in the years to come. The same population changes that we have already discussed are playing a role here: our populations are aging, and there are growing levels of obesity and mobility-related disability.
How should we respond to the security equity challenge? The next step must be to develop solutions that respond to the embodied experiences of those affected. Recently, Alex Rodde delivered a training program to French public servants on evacuating from their workplace following an armed intrusion. Rather than just providing a standardized briefing, he encouraged participants to narrate their route to safety.
These ordinary office workers described the difficulties they would face because of their age, weight, fitness and mobility impairments. Most had completed capacity assessments, and some had developed personal evacuation plans. But it was only when they participated in a "live" exercise that their physical limitations – limitations that we all must face some day – became clear. Today's standards will not be sufficient for the world of tomorrow.
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From RTÉ 2fm's Dave Fanning in 2022, interview with disaster planning expert Lucy Easthope about her book When the Dust Settles
Take the time to look around the next time you attend a sporting event or public gathering. Picture the crowd of the future. Consider the degraded staffing levels in emergency response agencies. To protect ourselves, we must understand this challenge and look for equitable solutions.
We are currently working with a nascent network of European emergency responders, venues and authorities to seek practical solutions. Plenty of new technologies exist and our public institutions wish to be inclusive. We can easily imagine a future where inclusive design and responsive security measures ensure a safer future for all. The hard task will be fully understanding what motivated Lorisa Loy to rescue a total stranger in Las Vegas. But if we can understand her values and impart them to others, we may yet be able to rescue essential societal institutions from a slow death.
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Prof Mark Maguire is a Professor in the Department of Anthropology at Maynooth University. He is co-author of Trapped: Life Under Security Capitalism and How to Escape It (Stanford University Press, 2024). He is a Research Ireland awardee. Alexandre Rodde is a terrorism and mass casualty attack analyst, law enforcement consultant and Reserve Officer in France's Gendarmerie Nationale. He is author of Le Jihad en France (CERF, 2022).
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
