Analysis: From business executives to students, the drop in US travel highlights the changing nature of how we think about risk
Something quietly significant is happening: Irish travel to the United States has dropped sharply in 2025. This is not due to cost or global tensions, but because of a growing discomfort with how the US feels to visit, and what it represents for certain groups.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Today with Claire Byrne, undocumented Irish warned about travel in the United States
A growing number of Irish travellers — particularly students, professionals and members of minority groups — are rethinking or cancelling trips to the United States because of a growing discomfort with what the US feels like to visit. And this is not just an Irish phenomenon, global travel to the US is down by over 10% in March 2025 alone.
The rise of emotional and identity-based risk
Irish travellers cite "everything going on" in the US for this change of tack. This includes issues from the increasingly divisive political climate and high-profile acts of gun violence to anti-LGBTQ+ legislation and social unrest. What’s noteworthy is that these concerns aren’t always based on direct threats to physical safety. Instead, they point to a shift in how people define risk.
Traditional travel advisories focus on terrorism, crime or health hazards. But today’s travellers, particularly younger generations, are expanding the definition. Cultural comfort, value alignment and psychological wellbeing are increasingly central to the decision-making process.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, Irish woman living in US, Cliona Ward, detained by US immigration after trip to Ireland
This is part of a broader social trend. Research in behavioural psychology points to the availability heuristic: we judge risk not purely by data, but by vivid stories, especially those that resonate with our identity. A viral TikTok video about an Irish traveller being interrogated by US immigration can carry more weight than official safety ratings. When those stories layer onto existing anxieties about political tensions, gun violence, or discrimination, the sense of risk becomes magnified.
The border as a barrier
What used to be a straightforward trip has become a source of anxiety for some. Visitors to the US are now more frequently being subjected to secondary screening, denied entry or asked to unlock their phones and show social media activity at the border. Travel industry professionals are seeing a ripple effect with cancelled group bookings, diverted conferences and a general unease about what once was a routine destination.
In these cases, the threat isn’t violence, but rather humiliation, scrutiny or exclusion. For many, that’s a powerful deterrent to travel.
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When safety becomes a values statement
Increasingly, travel choices are being driven by alignment with values. A recent BBC feature noted how tourists are actively avoiding destinations or US states they view as politically or socially regressive. For some, skipping a trip isn’t just a safety decision, but is a quiet act of protest.
This adds a new layer to the travel experience: the emotional tax. This is the invisible cognitive load of constantly checking whether a state has anti-trans laws, or whether an area is known for hostility toward foreigners. Even when physical danger is low, the emotional energy required to navigate the environment can be too high to justify the trip.
A new definition of travel risk
All of this signals that travel risk is not just about avoiding injury or illness, but is about preserving dignity, identity and peace of mind. This reframing is pushing innovation in the travel and security sectors, including here in Ireland.
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At DCU, a project called Kowroo, developed at the Insight Research Ireland Centre for Data Analytics with support from Enterprise Ireland’s Commercialisation Fund, is reimagining how travellers assess safety. Rather than issuing blanket risk ratings, Kowroo offers real-time, personalised risk assessments based on who the traveller is, where they are, and what’s happening around them, from the time of day to nearby incidents.
It’s an attempt to bridge the gap between actual safety and perceived safety, a distinction that is now central to modern travel decisions. Much like how Google Maps transformed navigation by focusing on lived experience rather than static directions, Kowroo is trying to do the same for safety.
The new travel risk equation
The decline in US-bound travel among Irish citizens is part of a larger truth as we’re witnessing a generational shift in how risk is understood and managed. It’s no longer just about avoiding harm, but it’s about feeling safe, being respected, and having control over how one moves through the world.
For the Irish student reconsidering a J1, the executive skipping a San Francisco conference or the LGBTQ+ traveller choosing Lisbon over Miami, the choice is deeply personal. In a world that feels increasingly unpredictable, the most powerful form of risk management is perhaps learning to trust your instincts, even if that means staying closer to home.
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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
