Analysis: Consumers are caught out by scams which use urgency triggers, confirmation bias and trust signals to create a false sense of security and scarcity
Sarah stared at her phone in disbelief. The €899 she had transferred for her daughter's Christmas present - a much sought-after PlayStation 5 bundle that had been "reduced" to half price for Black Friday - was gone. The website, which had appeared at the top of her Google search as a sponsored ad, had vanished. Her WhatsApp conversation with the "customer service representative" who had been so helpful in processing her order now showed as an inactive account. The sick feeling in her stomach deepened as she realized she’d fallen for a scam, despite considering herself tech-savvy and usually cautious with online purchases.
"But it looked so legitimate," Sarah would later tell the gardaí. "They had the exact model I’d been searching for weeks. The reviews were perfect. The customer service rep even sent me a video of them packaging similar orders. When they said they only had three bundles left at that price, I didn’t want to miss out…"
Sarah’s story represents thousands of consumers caught in the web of sophisticated seasonal scams each year, evidenced by fraudsters stealing almost €100 million through frauds and scams in 2023, an increase of over 16% on 2022. With Black Friday and Christmas around the corner, it is important to highlight that these scams aren’t merely about trickery; they also exploit the way we make decisions, turning our instincts and biases against us.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Drivetime, Bank of Ireland security chief Paul O'Brien on banking fraud around events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday
Consumers are routinely ensnared by scams that deploy strategies like urgency triggers, confirmation bias and trust signals to create a false sense of security and scarcity. Understanding how these tactics work is the first step toward outsmarting them.
The scam starts by creating urgency, playing on our natural tendency to avoid missed opportunities. High-demand items, especially with limited availability or time-limited discounts, can trigger a strong impulse to act quickly. For example, phrases like "only available for the next two hours" or "just three left in stock" are crafted to spark what’s known as the "urgency effect," where scammers play on a consumer’s levels of anxiety to convince them that this fantastic and amazing (but ultimately ridiculous) deal must be acted upon immediately to override our typical sense of caution.
In these high-stress moments, consumers experience "fast thinking," reacting impulsively rather than carefully weighing the situation. This sense of urgency, especially for something in short supply, can cloud judgment, pushing consumers like Sarah to act before verifying legitimacy.
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Adding to this pressure is decision fatigue, a lesser-known but powerful factor in the online shopping journey. Research reveals that the average person can only hold about four to seven pieces of information in their working memory. This becomes significantly strained during holiday shopping when you’re juggling price comparisons, product features, delivery times, budget constraints, and gift recipients' preferences. Every additional choice depletes mental energy.
An interesting study in this area has shown that judges were more likely to make favourable decisions at the start of the day and after breaks, highlighting how decision fatigue can lead to more conservative or error-prone judgments as mental energy wanes. Other research has shown that making many decisions in succession can lead to mental fatigue and poorer quality decisions over time.
Scammers know that a fatigued mind is a vulnerable mind; as we navigate endless pop-ups, product pages, and payment screens, our mental defences lower. Sarah, for instance, may have started out cautious, but her guard weakened after countless clicks, ads, and options. The site’s appearing legitimate was enough to secure her trust.
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But urgency and decision fatigue aren’t the only factors at play. Scarcity also enters, tapping into our evolutionary wiring to treat rare items as inherently valuable. When a product appears to be in limited supply, it gains desirability, a trait that scammers exploit by falsely claiming low stock. This artificial scarcity primes buyers to take risks they might usually avoid, swept up by the thought of securing a hard-to-find item before it’s too late.
The Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) compounds this effect, especially with high-demand items like gaming consoles, concert tickets or limited-edition merchandise. This taps into what psychologists call "availability bias": if a consumer is aware of an item’s scarcity elsewhere, they’re more likely to jump on the chance to secure it, believing it’s their only opportunity.
Then there’s confirmation bias, one of the most potent tricks in a scammer’s toolkit. This is a cognitive shortcut in which we seek out information that aligns with our pre-existing beliefs and it can be used to devastating effect. In online scams, this bias leads people to accept information that just feels right, without questioning its accuracy.
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From RTÉ Archives, Anthony Murnane reports for RTÉ News in 1999 on the rise of "cyber shopping"
Scammers often tailor their messages to fit these biases, crafting language that appeals to buyers’ desires, fears, or stereotypes. For Sarah, seeing that other "verified buyers" also loved the product validated her own sense that this was the real deal. These reviews weren’t just randomly positive; they were designed to mirror her own assumptions, providing a false sense of community and trust that deepened her commitment to the purchase. By aligning their messages with a target’s views, scammers know their crafted messages are less likely to be questioned.
Then, there's social proof, the subtle yet powerful force of collective validation. We’re social creatures by nature, hardwired to find reassurance in the choices and experiences of others. Scammers know this and fill their sites with glowing, fabricated reviews from "verified buyers." When people see that others seemingly like themselves, have endorsed a product or seller, they feel reassured, lowering their scepticism.
For example, Sarah was convinced by "verified buyer" testimonials praising the product’s quality and fast delivery. This fake validation, coupled with personal touches like a WhatsApp video showing her order being packaged, further cemented her trust. Scammers understand that seeing is believing; visual cues like videos or photos can make the sale feel genuine, appealing to our brain’s tendency to interpret tangible evidence as trustworthy.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Liveline, listeners talk about being scammed by a fake OPW website
Finally, there is the art of trust signals, the ultimate trump card in the scammer’s toolkit. Scammers work to mimic every marker of a legitimate business, layering in familiar cues to dissolve any lingering doubt. For instance, simply appearing as a sponsored Google ad gives an air of credibility, as many consumers assume that these ads have been vetted for safety. Here, scammers leverage our authority bias, where we unconsciously associate the credibility of Google’s brand with the reliability of the advertiser.
The mere presence of recognisable payment gateways like PayPal or Visa icons can also lull buyers into a false sense of security. When people see trusted logos and payment options, they feel reassured, as if these payment companies have personally vouched for the transaction. In reality, these icons are often just images, meant to give the illusion of a safe, familiar transaction process.
In a world of sophisticated scammers, consumers need to take a cautious, sceptical approach to online shopping, especially during high-pressure sales events
When woven together, these tactics create a web so intricate and convincing that even the savviest shopper can be ensnared. But consumers like Sarah can stay vigilant by learning to spot common red flags. Pausing to verify a website’s URL, cross-checking contact details, seeking independent reviews and sticking to secure payment options can all provide layers of protection. High-demand items with steep discounts, vague customer service or overly enthusiastic "verified" reviews can all signal fraud. A small moment of scepticism, a pause to think twice, can often reveal the scam hiding in plain sight.
In a world where scammers continuously refine their tactics to mirror legitimate businesses, consumers need to adopt this cautious, sceptical approach to online shopping, especially during high-pressure sales events. By understanding the psychology behind these traps, we can learn to outsmart even the most elaborate cons and ensure our hard-earned money ends up where it belongs.
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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
