Analysis: This voting system is why there is so much attention on just 150,000 voters out of the 160 million people eligible to vote
If you follow US politics at all, you've heard a lot about Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin lately. So much, in fact, that it can be easy to forget that 2024 is a national election involving over 160 million voters living in 50 states, seven territories, and the District of Columbia.
But political attention is focused on just 150,000 voters concentrated in seven states. Why? Is it because these voters are still undecided between Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? Yes, but they certainly aren’t the only undecided voters in the US.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Drivetime, Caitríona Perry from BBC News and John Nichols from The Nation on the scramble for swing state voters in the US election
Is it because they live in what are described as either "swing" or "battleground" states? These are states in which it still isn’t clear which party will have a majority, whether because voter preferences either swing between one party and the other, sometimes with significant margins, (swing states) or because the race is incredibly close (battleground states)? Yes, again. But, there are more than 150,000 undecided voters in those seven states.
Is it because they live in swing counties inside those swing states? Yes, yes, and yes.
So why does it matter so much where a voter lives? It matters because the US presidency isn’t decided by who wins a majority of the national popular vote, but rather by who wins a majority in the Electoral College.
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From RTÉ News in 2020, how the US Electoral College works
What is the Electoral College?
The Electoral College is a group of electors chosen by the states which gathers for the sole purpose of electing the US president and vice president. The US constitution is very clear that these electors cannot hold public office and that each state’s delegation equals its representation in Congress (so each state has as many electors as it does senators and representatives).
But while the Constitution clearly specifies what the Electoral College will do (elect the president) and who those electors are not (existing office holders), it very importantly leaves the question of how to select those electors up to the states.
Initially, many states left this task to their legislatures with a few favouring statewide or district-level selection. But as political parties formed, their leaders saw that the Electoral College offered an opportunity to secure power, and so sought to adjust the selection of electors to favour their candidates.
In 1800, Thomas Jefferson pushed for Virginia to adopt statewide selection (likely based in his recognition that he would be president had Virginia done so in 1796). James Madison is remembered as the "Father of the Constitution" and preferred district-based selection, describing it as "mostly, if not exclusively in view when the Constitution was frames and adopted".
The 'deeply undemocratic' Three-fifths Compromise
By 1824 the vast majority of states used the statewide, winner-take-all approach still in place today. With this change, came the first election in which the eventual result did not reflect the national popular vote. In 1824, Andrew Jackson received more popular and Electoral College votes than his four opponents, but not enough Electoral College votes to secure the presidency. The decision therefore went to the House of Representatives which selected John Quincy Adams rather than Jackson.
The defeated Jackson and his supporters were outraged so, after winning the presidency in 1828, he called for an amendment replacing the Electoral College with district-based selection of electors. However, the proposal foundered on another deeply undemocratic aspect of the US Constitution: the Three-fifths Compromise which counted each slave as 3/5 of a person for calculating representation, giving southern states a significant advantage in the Electoral College compared to the number of eligible voters in those states.
From CBC News, why 0.008% of the US population might determine the election outcome
Urban vs rural
Similarly, the combined population and demographic shifts of industrialisation and immigration meant that urban areas – with their populations of workers and recent immigrants – were growing much faster than rural areas. When Congress capped membership in the House of Representatives at 435 in 1929, they effectively limited the electoral power of these growing populations by ensuring that they would not receive additional representation and instead would have to become part of increasingly larger districts. Indeed, the average Congressional district today is larger than the entire population of some states, giving those small states (such as Wyoming, Vermont, or Alaska) outsized influence in the Electoral College.
These flaws (or, depending on your views, features) in the Electoral College have resulted in multiple elections in which the eventual presidents would arrive in the Oval Office having received less of the popular vote than their opponents: Adams in 1824, Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876, Grover Cleveland in 1888, George W. Bush in 2000 and Trump in 2016.
Time for reform?
In response, activists and scholars with National Popular Vote have been working since 2006 to reform the Electoral College to reflect the popular vote. Recognising that vested interests would likely stymie any effort to amend the Constitution, they instead have sought (and are seeking) to convince State legislatures to pass the National Popular Vote law. In doing so, these States promise to give all of their Electoral College votes to the candidate with the most vote across the country.
Despite their best efforts, the Framers of the Constitution created a system privileging a minority at the expense of the majority
Importantly, these laws will not go into effect until enacted by enough states to equal a majority of the Electoral College (270 out of 535). To date, 17 states accounting for a total of 209 Electoral College votes have passed the law. Depending on how things go in November, there may well be a renewed push to promote and pass similar legislation in the remaining states.
Even so, it will be too late for those voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin who are the focus on both the Harris and Trump campaigns for the next few weeks. It will too late as well for those living in the rest of the country whose priorities and needs are overlooked in the quest for the White House. Despite their best efforts, the Framers of the Constitution created a system privileging a minority at the expense of the majority.
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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
