Analysis: Comparing the costs and benefits of an action helps us make rational decisions, so how does this work with the challenges of a marathon?
Next Sunday, I will line up on Leeson Street in Dublin along with thousands of others to run the Dublin marathon. Assuming that none of the many calamities I have been obsessively worrying about occur between now and then, this will be my first ever marathon.
Running as a pastime is pretty popular, recent estimates suggest around four out of every 10 of people consider themselves runners. Despite this, the proportion of people who have ever run a marathon is actually very small. The vast majority of runners have participated in a race, but marathons account for only about 12% of total race results.
Even if we just consider runners, marathon runners are a minority. Taking the global population, fewer than 1% of people have run a marathon in the last 20 years. Anyone who has run a marathon will tell you how hard it is and most probably didn't enjoy the race itself. It takes months of exhausting training, and dealing with such side effects as loss of toenails, bleeding nipple and so called 'maranoia', extreme paranoia experienced in the run up to the race. Given all the downsides, is it rational to run a marathon, or is there wisdom in the crowds who choose not to?
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From RTÉ Brainstorm, here's how the 26.2 miles of a marathon affect your body, from heart and joints to sweat glands and blood volume
The World Health Organisation recommends adults do at least 150 minutes of exercise a week, and should increase this to 300 minutes for additional health benefits. Most people probably aspire to achieve this goal, but decisions related to health and fitness are often where we make the worst choices.
Rational decisions are made by comparing the costs of an action to its benefits. However when the costs are upfront but the rewards are delayed, our choice can be influenced by present bias. For example, the cost of going for a run on a cold wet evening is felt as soon as you step outside the front door, while the rewards of increased fitness aren’t realised until much later. In comparison, the benefits of an evening spent with a glass of wine in front of the fire are immediate, while any costs are felt later.
When we evaluate rewards that aren’t realised until later, we engage in what behavioural economists call hyperbolic discounting, meaning that mentally we ‘discount’ or lower the value of future rewards. The further into the future the reward is received, the bigger the discount we apply. Consequently, we can act impulsively, opting for instant gratification rather than taking actions that will only pay off weeks or months later.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Ray D'Arcy Show, Collette O'Hagan on running her 1,000th marathon at the age of 74
One of the basic principles of economics is that people respond to incentives. A commitment device can incentivise us to take action now to achieve a long term goal. To be effective, we need to self-select or opt in, and there must be negative consequences to not following through on the commitment.
Signing up for a marathon might seem a bit extreme if your goal is just to get fit, but it’s hard to think of a better commitment device. Training plans are typically about 16 weeks and, although you can afford to miss a week or two, you will suffer if you don’t do the majority of the runs.
People who sign up for marathons don’t typically keep quiet about it. How do you know if someone is training for a marathon? They’ll tell you! This compounds the effectiveness of the commitment device. Most of us tend to be loss averse, meaning that we feel the pain of loss or failure far more than we feel the joy of winning. Advertising the fact that you’re running a marathon (say for example, by writing an article about it) acts as further motivation not to fail.
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From RTÉ Archives, 1982 episode of Ireland's Eye profiles Mary O'Connor training for her first marathon
The act of simply signing up for a marathon might not be sufficient to ensure you stick to the plan. Joining a running club is another commitment device that can be help keep you on track. A marathon has long been on my bucket list, but I knew that I couldn’t cope with the long training runs alone. I joined Dundrum South Dublin Athletics Club (DSD) last year with the idea that I might do the marathon sometime soon.
The comradery and collective support I've witnessed in the marathon group last year spurred me on to sign up this year. More than 60 of us from the meet and train group, of all ages and abilities, will run Dublin this year. The support and team spirit in such a diverse group is incredible, and hugely motivating.
READ: How joining a running club can help you reach your marathon goals
There is evidence to suggest that marathon runners who are part of a running club run faster marathons. This could of course be a selection effect, faster runners are more likely to join a running club, but it could also be that being a club member is an additional commitment device. Having scheduled times to run makes you less likely to skip them, and being a member of a club gives you additional accountability, not to mention the additional benefits of expert coaching.
The beneficial impact of exercise on physical and mental health is well established. Studies have shown that marathon running can improve eyesight, cognitive ability, and mood, and reduce blood pressure and risk of depression.
Marathons are challenging, but overall the benefits outweigh the costs. However, costs and benefits differ across individuals, so you can’t determine if a choice was made rationally by simply looking at the outcome. Marathons aren’t for everyone, but it's completely rational to run one. That’s not to say there won’t be suffering on the streets of Dublin on Sunday, so come and cheer on the runners if you happen to be anywhere near the course route - especially if you spot one in a DSD singlet.
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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
