Analysis: Researchers have analysed 4,000 shots from elite male intercounty players to predict and assess shot success from various field positions
By Kevin McDaid, Dundalk Institute of Technology
The Gaelic Football Review Committee, led by Jim Gavin, are pushing for the introduction of a new scoring system, with two points for a shot that goes over the bar from outside the proposed 40-metre arc and four points awarded for a goal. This is one of a number of changes designed to yield a more exciting and dynamic version of the game. A first public airing for the proposed new rules will take place at the Allianz GAA Football Interprovincial Provincial series at Croke Park this weekend.
Researchers at Dundalk Institute of Technology and Technological University Dublin have analyzed almost 4,000 shots from elite male intercounty players, developing a prediction model to assess shot success from various field positions in difference scenarios. Our research suggests a significant tactical shift may occur with the new scoring rules.
Welcome to the no-shot zone
The study found that the chance of scoring from a new 40-metre arc, directly in front of goal, is 33% when the shooter is under high pressure from defenders. This means only about one-third of shots taken from this range on average will result in points, yielding around 6.6 points for every 10 shots based on the new scoring system.
From RTÉ Sport, discussion on the proposed rule changes for Gaelic football
To maintain an equivalent point return, teams would need to move the ball to within 30 metres for a shot under minimal defensive pressure and to within 20 metres of the goal if the shot is under high pressure for the chance of success to rise to 66%. Unless this opportunity is clear, teams may opt to hold possession outside the 40-metre arc longer, waiting for lower clearer shooting opportunities.
This suggests that the zone between the 40-metre arc and the 20-metre line could become a tactical "no-shot zone." With 65% of current shots for points taken in the 20-40 zone, teams may now focus on either finding space just outside the 40-metre arc or advancing directly to within 30 or even 20 metres before shooting for a goal or a point, changing the flow and strategy of the game.
Go for goal
Once teams enter the 40-metre arc, expect a push toward the 20-metre line to create four-point goal opportunities. Historically, 55% of shots within 20 metres of the goal were goal attempts, compared to 40% for shots within 25 metres. These figures are likely to rise as teams favour high-reward strategies over safer single-point shots.
Currently, goal attempts from 14-20 metres yield just under one point on average. With the new four-point value for goals, this average increases to 1.25 points, also allowing for goal attempts that go over the bar for a point. This increase means attempts on goal will become more beneficial than point attempts, so they will likely become more frequent.
From RTÉ Sport, the new scoring system under the proposed rule changes
As a result, expect more long-range goal attempts and an emphasis on sharp shooters like David Clifford, who averages almost a goal every two games for Kerry. Defensively, teams may adapt by positioning more players around the arc to block two-point shots and others near the square to prevent goals, potentially leaving the 20 to 40 metre zone open for easier scoring opportunities.
Avoid the corners
Traditionally, teams have moved the ball quickly from side to side, targeting corner-forward positions to stretch defenses and create shooting chances, often relying on cutback moves by players like Con O'Callaghan. However, with the new 40-metre arc stopping at the 20-metre line, attacks from these tight angles may lose value.
A right-footed shot under pressure from the left at the 14-metre line and just 30 metres from goal has a 50% success rate, dropping to 40% with the left foot. But this is less valuable than a two-point shot from outside the 40-metre arc, which teams may now prefer.
From RTÉ Sport, how kickouts will work under the proposed rule changes
Since shots inside the 20-metre line don't qualify for two points, there’s less incentive to play into the corners. Teams might keep possession further out, focusing on creating better shooting angles where a two-point shot is possible, shifting the emphasis to more central play.
Don’t foul!
Under the proposed new rules, successful frees from outside the 40-metre arc, not including 45s, will earn two points. Combined with the rule allowing referees to move the ball forward by 50 metres for certain fouls and teams allowed to take these kicks from outside the 40-metre arc, this could transform the game.
Frees are far more successful than open-play shots. A free from the 40-metre arc directly in front of goal has shown a success rate of almost 70% at the highest level—well above the 33% success rate for pressured shots and the 48% for unpressured shots from open play. Even a 50-metre free has nearly a 50% success rate. The key difference is that frees are taken by specialists under no direct defensive pressure.
From RTÉ Sport, how fouls and dissent will be punished under the proposed rule changes
With goalkeepers, like Wicklow's Mark Jackson, capable of accurately striking beyond 60 metres, these rules may reduce fouls inside 60 metres from goal and create a new generation of long-distance accurate free-takers.
All-action in the square
The proposed changes could bring new headaches for goalkeepers. With more long-distance shots, expect more high balls dropping short. Analysis shows one in four shots from beyond 50 metres and one in five from 40-50 metres land in the square. The increase in long-distance shots, combined with the chance of a four-point goal, means more pressure on keepers dealing with high-dropping balls. To adapt to the these aerial threats, teams may rely on taller goalkeepers and the game may see an increase in the traditional "bear in the square" full-forward.
These new scoring rules mark a radical shift that could transform the game. Long-distance shooting will likely rise, while mid-range shots may decline. Attacking teams will push for goals once inside the 40-metre line. Fewer fouls should occur in scoring areas with the added importance of teams having an accurate long distance free taker. Longer shots should lead to more goal-mouth battles as shots drop into the square. While there are risks, the potential for a more exciting and dynamic game is clear.
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Dr Kevin McDaid is a lecturer in Computing and Data Analytics and a member of the Regulated Software Research Centre at Dundalk Institute of Technology.
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
