Analysis: Research looked at specific risky behaviours and compared these between EVs, traditional vehicles, and hybrids
By Kevin McDonnell, Barry Sheehan and Finbarr Murphy, UL
Electric Vehicles (EVs) have reduced mechanical parts, large lithium-ion batteries, and single-pedal designs; fundamentally different to their traditional diesel and petrol counterparts. Despite these, the conversation around EVs typically centres around their sales, reduced emissions, range anxiety and charging infrastructure. However, we rarely talk about EVs in terms of risk.
Our research at Lero and University of Limerick investigated key differences between EVs and traditional vehicles through a risk lens. We considered whether people drive or behave differently in EVs, whether EVs cost more to repair, and whether EV drivers are more likely to crash. We collected the driving data of over 12,000 diesel and petrol vehicles and 830 EVs to respond to these questions – and the answers are yes, yes and yes. Let us explain.
Everyone has a particular driving style, and how you drive a vehicle can indicate whether you are more likely to be involved in a collision. We looked at specific risky behaviours, like harsh acceleration and braking, and compared these behaviours between EVs, traditional vehicles, and hybrids. We found significant behaviour changes for those who switched to an alternative energy vehicle, like EVs and hybrids. This means that EV and Hybrid drivers drive differently, which can increase or decrease your risk.
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The change in driver behaviour is only part of the problem. Since we know driver behaviour changes, we looked at how this can affect your crash risk. Insurance claims are a great indicator of how risky a driver is. Drivers who haven't claimed recently are less likely to crash in the future. However, drivers with a claim suggest they pose a greater risk to themselves and other drivers. We focused on at-fault claims, which describe drivers who caused a collision due to their driving habits.
Firstly, we compared the number of at-fault claims made by each vehicle and found that EVs cause 3.2% more collisions than traditional vehicles. We analysed the driving behaviour and claims to better understand why we were seeing an increase in EV-related at-fault claims. We found that EVs played a significant role in predicting at-fault claims and that their mileage in the vehicle also contributed to their risk. This means EV drivers are at greater risk of causing a crash, even when they drive fewer miles than traditional vehicles.
The final thing we consider about EV risk is their direct cost to the consumer. EV batteries tend to be expensive, costing at least one-third the price of the vehicle. It has also been found that batteries reach their end-of-life around 10 years of use, meaning a replacement is required. So that means that every 10 years, you may have to pay another third of the cost of the vehicle to keep it on the road.
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EV ownership presents a further financial risk. We examined the claims we collected to determine the cost of repairs. We found that over a third of EV repairs cost more than €1,000 after a collision, a 6.7% increase from traditional vehicles. This means that not only are you more likely to crash, it is also more expensive to repair your car. This additional risk will likely be reflected in higher insurance premiums for EV drivers.
The latest figure for registered vehicles in Ireland is 2.9 million, of which nearly 40,000 are EVs. By 2040, there is an expectation that the number of EVs on roads will grow to almost 1 million vehicles. In the context of our research, that's one million vehicles that will contribute to a 3.2% increase in collisions over traditional vehicles. When considering the latest road safety figures from the Road Safety Authority, risk must be central to decision-making when navigating the transition to alternative energy transportation.
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So, we find that 1) EV drivers behave differently, 2) are more likely to be involved in collisions, and 3), the vehicles are more expensive to repair. Is it time to panic? No, like any emerging technology, prices inevitably come down as we find more efficient ways to create the same product. For instance, advancements in battery technologies should improve distances and reduce prices. If battery costs go down, so will your repair costs.
There are ways to reduce the potential hazards of EVs when it comes to crash risk. For example, EU-wide Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) regulations are being introduced to reduce driver-related errors and collisions. All new vehicles with these ADAS systems will help lower risk. However, for now, knowledge is power for our trailblazing EV drivers. Armed with this awareness, driving with additional care can help make our roads a safer place for all.
Kevin McDonnell is a researcher in Lero, the Research Ireland Centre for Software, and in the Kemmy Business School at University of Limerick. Dr Barry Sheehan is an Associate Professor in risk and finance at the Kemmy Business School at UL. Professor Finbarr Murphy is Executive Dean, and Associate Professor in Quantitative Finance and Emerging Risk at UL.
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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
