Analysis: cybercriminals have upped the ante in the war on democracy with techniques that aim to disrupt and influence elections
As we edge closer to the US presidential election, the threat of foreign espionage looms larger than ever. American intelligence agencies confirmed last month that Iran was responsible for hacking into the campaigns of both presidential candidates. The announcement provided the clearest sign yet that foreign intelligence organisations are actively working to interfere in the 2024 election.
From CBS News, what we know about Iran's attempts to hack accounts connected to 2024 presidential campaigns for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump
All of this comes at a time of intense political division in the US and rising international tensions over Gaza, Ukraine and elsewhere. Of course, the US is not the only country going to the polls so what critical threats should we watch out for - and what kind of damage might they cause to the democratic processes?
There is ample evidence that cybercriminals have sharpened their arsenal in the escalating war on democracy by deploying techniques that aim to disrupt and influence elections. These tactics are not only diverse but also increasingly sophisticated, and in some instances intertwine personal data breaches with assaults on critical infrastructure.
Cybercriminals have become adept at stealing and publicising private information from political figures, using it to manipulate public opinion. They have also become experts in social engineering, often tricking people to give up account or system passwords, or to download and run malware through deceptive emails and other messages. Attackers can also exploit software vulnerabilities in applications, devices, computers or servers, and these exploits can be purchased on black markets.
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From RTÉ News in 2018, the US has charged a dozen Russian intelligence officers for interfering in the 2016 presidential election
Politicians are obvious targets, as their campaigns are harnessing the power of big data like never before, using advanced algorithms to craft and deliver highly personalised messages to targeted voter groups. This sophisticated approach allows campaigns to influence individual voters with laser-focused precision, reaching them with messages tailored to their unique preferences and behaviours.
Unlike the days when political influence had to be physically close to its target, today’s data-driven tactics can operate across great distances-sometimes even from different countries. Vast amounts of user data, harvested from social media platforms, search engines and websites are analysed to identify and exploit specific voter segments. This data is sifted by algorithms to pinpoint key demographics and psychographics.
The real danger here lies in how these micro-targeted messages often escape public scrutiny, as their complex, proprietary algorithms remain opaque. While micro-targeting can sometimes offer more relevant political information, it also opens the door to manipulation, where deceptive tactics are used to subtly alter people’s beliefs and behaviours without their informed consent.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Today with Claire Byrne, Terry Sheridan from WSHU public radio on how Donald Trump faces new 2020 election interference charges
These tactics extend beyond individual targets, probing the integrity of election infrastructure like voting machines and voter databases. Organising elections has always involved the flow and storage of information by electoral management bodies, campaigners and government agencies. Even the earliest of elections in ancient Greek politics involved the storage of electoral registers and vote tabulations.
Voters can now be easily misled by fake information about online voting, or false URLs, which, if followed, would not actually record their ballot, or could even lead to further cybersecurity breaches. The combination of these threats-from personal data breaches to systemic disruptions-highlights a troubling pattern seen in past events, such as the Democratic National Committee hack in 2016 and the attacks on Emmanuel Macron’s campaign in 2017, underscoring the wide-ranging impact of modern cyber warfare.
Cyber-attacks can obstruct essential functions, leading voters to doubt the integrity of the electoral system and their role within it. The hacking and release of sensitive data poses severe challenges for political parties, forcing them to manage security threats, financial risks and compromised communication strategies. Moreover, when data is misused or selectively shared, it can give certain actors an unfair strategic edge in the electoral race.
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From RTÉ Archives, Sean Whelan reports for RTÉ News in 2006 about a group of Dutch hackers who've hacked electronic voting machines to highlight their fatal flaws
Amidst all this chaos, there is also the worrying rise of online trolling, marked by vicious, disruptive and threatening behaviour which is also a growing menace to electoral integrity. These trolls deploy a range of intimidation tactics, from death threats and sexual assault threats to violence against family members and attempts to ruin reputations. This aggressive strategy aims to spread chaos, manipulate public opinion and undermine democratic processes.
The bedrock of democratic participation, the right to vote and ensure your voice is heard, is now facing an existential threat from digital interference, unlike anything we’ve encountered before. Social media’s precision targeting allows candidates to customize messages for individual voter segments, but this strategy can also create dangerous 'echo chambers,’ where voters are only exposed to viewpoints that reinforce their existing beliefs, fuelling polarisation and divisiveness in national politics.
This is further accentuated by bots amplifying favourable messages to users while suppressing dissent, creating a false sense of consensus and political support. This deliberate manipulation not only spreads division and distrust, but also deepens existing social and partisan rifts, systematically undermining the foundations of democratic debate.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Drivetime, cybersecurity expert Prof Ciarán Martin on being election-ready in the era of AI
To make matters worse, these platforms are designed to amplify "virality", often pushing users to share sensationalist headlines even when accuracy is uncertain. This deluge of misinformation muddles public understanding, fosters dangerous conspiracy theories and manipulates opinion and actions through deceptive means. Techniques such as the "firehose of falsehood" bombard citizens with so much false information that it erodes their ability to discern truth and undermines their faith in political institutions.
Examples include impersonation of candidates’ social media profiles, which can then provide false messaging or information to voters. Another new challenge is so-called ‘‘deep fakes,’’ or videos or photos that have been doctored to provide false information. Even if these types of disinformation are detected and corrected, the damage may already have been done in the minds of voters.
These misinformation campaigns are dissuading voters from heading to the polls, while cyberbullying and threats target candidates and public figures, aiming to silence them. Trolls, often targeting already marginalised groups, continue to sow discord and intimidation, stifling meaningful participation. By disrupting online discussions and leveraging strategic ad buys, bots, and troll armies, foreign actors can overshadow genuine citizen voices and undermine the democratic process itself.
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From This Week, fears of election disinformation in Ireland and around the globe
We may find some voters beginning to distrust elections or even refusing to participate as more technology is adopted. They may see security issues that infringe upon the privacy of their personal information and vote. Whether these issues are real or imagined, they have the same effect of potentially turning some people off the voting process.
The impacts of these disruptive cyber techniques are profound and far-reaching, threatening the very fabric of democratic processes. Cyberattacks targeting political campaigns aren’t just breaches of privacy -they’re calculated attempts to manipulate democratic processes and sow discord among voters. The implications are profound: these acts of digital sabotage if left unchecked will continue to erode public trust in the electoral system, undermine the legitimacy of election outcomes and deepen the already gaping divides in society.
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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
