Analysis: the selections of Tim Walz and J.D. Vance show why the vice presidential pick has become a high stakes affair
'You die, I fly' has long been a shorthand for the US vice-presidential resume. This wry comment made by George HW Bush on the extent of the role was perhaps more accurate on his watch (1981 to 1989) than it is today. The choice of running mate for arguably the most important job in the world is a high stakes affair in the 21st century.
The selection of Tim Walz and J.D. Vance offers timely examples of the relative merits of ticket-balancing verses doubling-down as strategies of their presidential nominees. Whilst all attention is on these individuals right now, public interest in the vice-presidency has long been lukewarm at best.
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Ó Raidió na Gaeltachta's Tús Áite, cé hé JD Vance, iarrthóir leasuachtarántacht Trump?
A short history of the Veeps
Historically, perhaps the most derogatory voices on US vice-presidents have come from those unfortunate enough to have endured the role themselves. Even John Nance Garner, considered a relatively powerful VP to the first modern president Franklin D. Roosevelt, disparaged his office as 'not worth a bucket of warm spit.' Richard Nixon left public life (albeit temporarily) after losing in 1960 despite eight years of experience as VP to Dwight Eisenhower. The rambunctious Lyndon Johnson consisted of a far bigger a character and ego than the role constraints allowed.
Finally, on the watch of Gerald Ford that some meaningful evolution of the office took place in the early 1970s (as VP, Ford saw the Watergate writing on the Nixon Oval Office wall). Furthermore, during the Carter-Mondale years, there was some notable institutionalisation of the role which helped to ensure that the vetting, choosing and portfolio of the VP was serious business. George HW Bush, like Truman, Johnson and Nixon before him, demonstrated that the relative tedium of the vice-presidency could bring significant reward, eventually.
From AP, on the road with Bill Clinton and Al Gore on the 1996 presidential campaign
Perhaps the most exciting pick of the late 20th century was Bill Clinton's choice of fellow Southern policy-wonk Al Gore, as this departed from the tradition of choosing a running mate who would balance the ticket. From 2000, imperial co-president Dick Cheney broke the mould by arguably being more powerful than his own boss. On Obama's watch, the job was recalibrated to a boundary-respecting career politician, Joe Biden. Mike Pence was a reversion to form as a Trump ticket-balancer as was, in an unprecedented way, Biden’s choice of Kamala Harris.
Mandates and methods of choosing
Back in the day, the job of US vice president went, as per Constitutional guidelines, to the runner up in the general election. The challenges of this route were substantial, not least as it meant that the average VP was potentially frustrated at getting a job they did not want. Thanks to the 12th amendment in 1804, the VP has run on the president’s ticket for the past two centuries.
Scholars spend much time presenting typologies of running-mate choices but, simply put, it tends to be a case of ticket-balancing or, occasionally, doubling down on what the presidential candidate is offering. Until very recently, the ticket-balancing usually involved choosing a white man from a different part of the country to the one on the top of the presidential ticket.
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From RTÉ's States of Mind podcast, have the parties selected the right running mates for Trump and Harris?
The Ivy-League edcuated John F. Kennedy, for example, with his east-coast political family pedigree and sophisticated socialite wife, was mindful of the suspicion with which white Southern Democrats held him. Therefore, choosing straight-talking, foul-mouthed, braggadocious Texan Lyndon Johnson with a genteel Southern wife offered comfort to those Democrats who couldn't relate to the liberal New York intellectual JFK.
In 2024, Democrats, if not Republicans, had improved their vision for ticket balancing. They've arguably turned it on its head as the VP choice needed to be an uncontroversial white male from the American mid-west in order to offset the fact that the presidential nominee herself ticked none of those boxes.
Enter Tim Walz and J. D. Vance
The cases of Walz and Vance offer an interesting set of contrasts. On one level, they both present similar alternatives to their potential bosses. Minnesota and Ohio offer logical geographical counterparts to the coastal genesis of Harris and Trump. Both come from small town humble origins and have a military service record. Vance, as per his memoir,, was raised in poverty. Walz is recognised as one of the least wealthy candidates ever to run for VP.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, RTÉ Washington corr Sean Whelan on the selection of Minnesota governor Tim Walz as Kamala Harris' vice-presidential candidate
Here, though, the similarities taper off. The youthful Vance may offer a reassuring balance to a President Trump who would be 83 at the end of his term in office in 2029. The prospect of President Vance would therefore be quite feasable and the protégé is, arguably, the embodiment of Trumpism for the future.
For a brief period in July 2024, choosing the Ohio senator seemed like peak Mar-a-Lago chutzpah. But once it became clear that Biden was not the Democrat nominee, the dynamic changed dramatically. The Harris-Walz ticket suddenly ticked a list of boxes including female, black, Asian American, blended family with a Jewish husband, along with a down-home Minnesota former geography teacher in a long-term happy marriage. Meanwhile, Trump and Vance ticked only the MAGA box, albeit in the heaviest ink.
'I am vice-president. In this, I am nothing, but I may be everything' declared John Adams during his VP tenure (1788–1792). Today, the vice-presidency is substantially something. They are a loyal and competent colleague with a not-inconsequential brief and a potential elected path to the Oval Office. The VP's days of inquiring daily as to the health of the president are well and truly done.
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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
