Analysis: This isn't the first time a sitting Democratic president is not going for re-election, so what happened when this occured in 1952 and 1968?
Last month, US president Joe Biden did what few presidents have done: chose not to run for office a second time. Indeed, Biden is only the third president since the Second World War to do so. Before his announcement, supporters pointed to Democratic defeats in 1952 and 1968 as evidence of the dangers of the incumbent not running. Of course, 2024 is its own year with its own circumstances, but what did happen in 1952 and 1968?
1952
Harry S. Truman had been vice-president for just over 80 days when he became president after Franklin D. Roosevelt's death in April 1945. Truman served out the remaining years of Roosevelt's term before being elected in his own right in 1948. But by 1952, criticism of the Korean War and anti-communist hysteria made Truman an unpopular president and a weak candidate.
From PBS Presidents, all you need to know about Harry S. Truman in 60 seconds
In March 1952, Truman lost the New Hampshire primary to Tennessee senator Estes Kefauver and soon withdrew from the race. Kefauver went on to win most of the remaining primaries but, unlike today, not all states held primaries leaving party leadership (including Truman, Kefauver’s former opponent) with a significant role in the nomination process.Unfortunately for Kefauver, many of the party’s leaders neither liked nor trusted him – not least because his televised investigations of organised crime implicated members of his own party.
They therefore sought an alternative candidate with Adlai Stevenson an obvious choice. A popular governor in Illinois, respected Democrat and gifted speaker, Stevenson was an ideal candidate, except for the fact that he adamantly refused to run. When the party gathered in Chicago to pick their candidate, there was no clear favourite. Kefauver had won the most primaries, eight other candidates were jostling for position and a small but determined Draft Stevenson Committee continued its work without their candidate’s support, cooperation or agreement.
From British Pathé, coverage of the 1952 Democrats' convention in Chicago
Stevenson opened the convention with a speech intended to welcome attendees to Illinois, but was repeatedly interrupted by cheers, applause, and cries of "We want Stevenson!" As pro-Stevenson badges and handmade signs spread across the convention, he eventually allowed himself to be nominated. Despite his total lack of campaigning, Stevenson was less than seventy votes behind Kefauver after the first ballot. At this point four candidates dropped out endorsing Stevenson and a second vote was taken – with the convention chair pointedly ignoring Kefauver's own efforts to step aside in favour of Stevenson. On the third ballot, Stevenson became the Democratic candidate for president.
He then faced the unenviable task of campaigning against war hero Dwight D. Eisenhower who would go on to win in a landslide despite Stevenson's efforts to capitalise on tensions within the Republican Party and to remind voters of the successes of the New Deal. Eisenhower and his running mate, California senator Richard Nixon, received over 55% of the popular vote and won 39 states leaving Stevenson nine states, mostly all Democratic stalwarts in the south and not even his home state of Illinois.
1968
In 1968, the Democrats gathered again in Chicago to select a presidential candidate with the sitting President on the sidelines. Like Truman, Lyndon B. Johnson became president after a sudden death – in this case, the 1963 assassination of John F. Kennedy. Johnson went on to complete Kennedy’s term and was elected in his own right in 1964. By 1968, however, Johnson faced constant protests and a revolt within his own party, primarily over the Vietnam War.
From PBS Newshour, a lookback at the 1968 Democratic convention in Chicago
Anti-war Democrats recruited Minnesota senator Eugene McCarthy to run against the president and his surprisingly strong showing in the New Hampshire primary – he came within only a few percentage points of defeating the president – encouraged other Democrats, most notably Robert F. Kennedy, to enter the race. Facing a three-way nominating contest (and polling which suggested he would come third), Johnson shocked the nation by withdrawing from the race on March 31st 1968.
With Johnson out of the race, Kennedy and McCarthy seemed likely to split the primaries, so Johnson’s vice president Hubert Humphrey focused on delegates chosen through state caucuses and other closed systems. Just as Kennedy seemed poised to take the lead after winning primaries in Indiana, Nebraska, South Dakota, and California, the race was upended yet again when he was assassinated on June 5th after his victory in California.
Coming as it did after months of protests and rioting following Martin Luther King, Jr.'s assassination that April, Kennedy’s violent death contributed to an image of chaos and instability which would prove disastrous in the election - as would protests at the convention itself. As activists prepared to disrupt the convention, party leaders and Chicago mayor Richard Daley used any means necessary to prevent them. The city denied permits, blocked access routes, surrounded the convention site with barbed wire barricades, and, ultimately, brutally disbursed the protesters.
From C-Span, how CBS News covered the riots at the DNC in Chicago in 1968
Mirroring the conflicts on the streets, the convention itself was disorderly and sometimes violent. McCarthy’s supporters used their speeches to draw attention to the violence outside the convention while opponents shouted them down and party operatives struggled to maintain order. With TV cameras rolling, voters watched, shocked, as debates over issues and candidates turned into fistfights between delegates and journalists were forcibly – and violently – removed from the convention floor.
In the midst of this chaos, the exhausted and divided party finally selected Humphrey as its candidate. Facing Nixon, Humphrey struggled to distance himself from Johnson's unpopular policies and failed to unify his party. Not even Johnson’s announcement of negotiations with the North Vietnamese in October could turn the tide – not least because Nixon was in contact with the South Vietnamese encouraging them not to cooperate with Johnson’s diplomatic push - and Humphrey lost in November 1968 by less than one percent.
2024
That close loss in 1968 and the 1952 landslide have haunted Democrats. Even as calls for Biden to step aside mounted following his disastrous debate performance in June, many feared a repeat of the two other times the sitting president opted not to run for re-election.
From RTÉ News, US president Joe Biden endorses Kamala Harris at the opening night of the Democrats' convention in Chicago
But it's 2024, not 1952 or 1968. As the Democrats gather in Chicago (yet again!) to pick a candidate while the incumbent watches on, they do so as a far more unified party. Biden may have stepped down later than either Truman or Johnson, but he also immediately endorsed his vice president ensuring that Kamala Harris would face few obstacles in securing the delegates she needs to be the nominee. Indeed, she did just that only two days after Biden’s surprise announcement.
We can expected Harris to be nominated with less drama than either 1952 or 1968. Once nominated, the candidate won’t face a popular war hero, mass protests or a divided party. That's not to say it’ll be easy, but just that the past is, as always, an imperfect predictor of the present.
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