Analysis: This election has proven to be a lost gamble by the French president and has produced a polarised and uncertain political landscape
By Elodie Fabre, Queen’s University Belfast
Last Sunday, the French went to the polls for the first round of early parliamentary elections. Called by president Emmanuel Macron in the aftermath of disastrous European elections for his party, Renaissance, this election was equally disastrous for his side. The far-right National Rally (RN) came first, a broad electoral coalition of left-wing parties (New Popular Front, NFP) second, and Renaissance third.
If no candidate receives more than 50% of the votes representing at least 25% of registered voters in the first round, a second round is organised between the top two candidates and any candidate who supported by more than 12.5% of registered voters. Whoever gets the most vote in the second round wins.
This makes predictions rather difficult, as second-round transfers can be hard to predict. However, Macron’s party is expected to lose at least half of its deputies, and the RN could win a majority of the seats in the National Assembly. This election is a disaster of Macron’s own making.
How did we get here?
These elections did not have to happen. France had presidential and parliamentary elections in 2022, and only local and regional elections were expected to happen between now and 2027, when the next presidential and parliamentary elections were due. In 2022, Macron beat RN candidate Marine Le Pen, and his party and its allies won 246 seats in the National Assembly, while the RN won a record 89 seats.
However, Macron and his government did not have an overall majority. They needed to find support from the right (Les Républicains) or use a constitutional tool that allows the government to pass legislation without a vote if the Assembly fails to pass a motion of no confidence.
From RTÉ News, French prime minister Gabriel Attal says far right at 'gates of power' after first round of election results
After the European Parliament elections, Macron decided to call a snap election so that, as he put it, French people could 'clarify' the situation. In fact, he hoped his party would win a majority by presenting Renaissance as the last bulwark against the far right and marginalising a divided left.
One reason for Renaissance’s failure to win a majority in 2022 is the pre-electoral coalition between the major left-wing parties (radical left La France Insoumise, the Socialist Party, and the Green Party). As they were not competing against each other, they won more seats (131) than they would have had they failed to cooperate.
These parties did not reach a similar agreement for the European elections, and Macron hoped that they would not have time to regroup at the start of a short 20-day campaign. This would have turned these elections into a contest between centre and the far right, giving Renaissance another chance to win a parliamentary majority.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, what will this election result mean for France?
Faced with the stakes of a potential National Rally majority, left-wing parties struck a deal very quickly, with a wide coalition ranging from the centre-left to the radical left. This united left alliance came second in the first round and ruined Macron’s hopes for his legacy in his second and last term (French presidents cannot exercise more than two consecutive terms).
What next? The second round
On Sunday, voters are called to vote in 501 constituencies, 76 seats having already been won in the first round. With a much higher turnout in the first round than in 2022 (66.7% against 47.5%), the number of potential three-way contests (called triangulaires) increased considerably, as more candidates passed the threshold of 12.5% of registered voters.
Triangulaires in constituencies where the National Rally came first make the election of a far-right candidate more likely because the vote for other parties remains divided. As a result, over 200 candidates, mostly from the NFP and Renaissance and its allies, who had come third in a constituency where the RN came first, withdrew their candidacy to prevent the election of a RN deputy.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, France-based journalist John Lichfield analyses the potential impact of the political horse trading ahead of round two of the French parliamentary elections
This ‘republican front’ against the RN may not be enough to keep the far right out of power. One reason is the strength of the results of the RN in the first round. The far right came first in most constituencies outside of large cities and parts of the West.
Another is voter transfers. The campaign has been acrimonious. Renaissance candidates campaigned strongly against the radical left LFI but often painted all NFP parties with the same negative brush. The executive even had to intervene to convince some Renaissance candidates to withdraw when they had come third behind the left and the RN. The right has been more reluctant to withdraw to prevent the election RN deputies. Will Renaissance and moderate right voters want to support NFP candidates against the RN, vote for the RN, or abstain? This is one of the main uncertainties of this round.
All this means that we could find ourselves on Sunday night either with an overall RN majority or with no party or electoral alliance with an overall majority, but still with the RN holding more seats than any other party.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Today with Claire Byrne, CBS News Correspondent in Paris Elaine Cobbe on how the French election results have seen a surge for Marine Le Pen and the National Rally
The National Rally have said that they would only govern if they won an overall majority. If they do, France would then find itself in a period of cohabitation, with a centristpPresident and a far right government. This has happened three times since 1986, although never with the far right involved.
If no grouping has a majority, a period of great uncertainty is likely to start. Some are calling for a grand coalition of all parties against the RN, a suggestion that could be dangerous, as it would turn the RN into the only opposition, giving credence to their long-standing claim to be the only opposition to the ‘establishment’.
Macron wanted to reshape French politics and put an end of the left-right divide. This election cycle suggests that the left-right divide has returned with a vengeance, with a political landscape more polarised and uncertain than when Macron became president in 2017. This is probably not be the legacy he had in mind.
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Dr Elodie Fabre is a Lecturer in Politics and International Studies at Queen's University Belfast.
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
