Analysis: Economic challenges, political fragmentation and complex geopolitics are some of the issues which lie ahead for Iran's new president
The helicopter crash that killed Iran's president Ebrahim Rasi and seven members of his entourage last month has highlighted social polarisation within the country. It also means the election to replace him this week is fraught with economic challenges, political fragmentation and the continuation of a complex geopolitical strategy.
I have been conducting research field work since March in Iran and have seen how the crash has had some Iranians celebrating Rasi's death and others mourning his loss. A 37-year-old woman, indifferent to Islamic principles like hijab, said with a voice trembling with emotion, "they (officials in the helicopter) killed many young people... now, those who died in the crash were the ones who looted Iran." The woman’s background as a private insurance company owner suggests she likely belongs to a well-off social segment, as owning a company in Iran typically requires significant financial resources.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, Ali Vaez from the Crisis Group's Iran Project on the implications for Iran and the Middle East of the death of Iranian president, Ebrahim Raisa
A 29-year-old father expressed frustration over the reaction to his condolence story on Instagram regarding Raisi’s death. "After posting, my employer is threatening to end our collaboration", he said. "Holding onto this animosity will lead to no good outcome." The man, an advertising company employee, belongs to the lower-income religious class, known as enghelabi (revolutionary). At Raisi’s funeral in Tehran, I observed this class: women mostly in chadors or manteaus, and men in simple clothing with beards and traditional hairstyles.
The June 28th election
Iran’s electoral dynamics revolve around four interconnected issues: candidate qualifications and disqualifications, public sentiment, potential winners, and internal and external challenges. The Guardian Council, a constitutional vetting body, has approved six candidates, five conservatives and one reformist. "Conservative" refers to those who support traditional values and strict Islamic principles, and maintaining the status quo in political and social matters, while "reformist" denotes advocates for political, social, and economic reforms and greater individual freedoms.
The conservative candidates are former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, present Tehran mayor Alireza Zakani, head of Iran’s Martyrs Foundation Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and former minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, Borzou Daragahi, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and Istanbul-based journalist, discusses Iran's forthcoming presidential election
Additionally, there is Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist who served as health minister during Mohammad Khatami's presidency (1997-2005). The Guardian Council disqualified 74 candidates, continuing a trend seen in this year's parliamentary elections, in an effort to consolidate the state apparatus under conservative ideology.
Will the public turn out to vote?
The current electoral atmosphere contrasts sharply with the highly competitive elections from 1997 to 2013, during which the average voter turnout was 73%. During those periods, the nature of elections evoked ambivalence among voters. When voters have diverse choices and the ability to exclude certain candidates, they are more inclined to participate in elections to hold corrupt officials accountable. This ambivalence and the presence of varied choices occurred in a context where the Guardian Council exhibited greater openness in vetting candidates.
Current disqualifications may lead to voter abstention, possibly matching the low 41% turnout seen in the recent parliamentary elections, the lowest in the history of the Islamic Republic. Moreover, economic hardship may increase voter abstention. The dollar exchange rate nearly doubled from 257,000 rials in August 2021 to 595,000 rials by June 2024. US-led sanctions, high inflation (38.8% in March 2024) and widespread corruption worsened the situation, affecting all sectors.
From DW, how important are current elections for Iran's regime?
Who is likely to win?
Jalili and Ghalibaf emerge as the leading candidates, seeking support from low-income groups like workers and ideological supporters of the state, who are more likely to participate in pseudo-elections. However, Jalili stands out more as a potential winner due to his status as enghelabi for his strict Islamic principles within the state apparatus. Being close to Raisi, Jalili is viewed as a continuity candidate, having withdrawn in favour of the late president in the 2021 elections.
While Ghalibaf wields considerable influence in the Iranian parliament, he has come under attack from radical conservatives for his perceived "hunger for power," especially after his re-election as parliament speaker in May.
Challenges for the new president
Iran faces a challenging period. The winning candidate will have to prioritise economic issues at home, while aiming to bolster Iran’s geopolitical influence abroad, which clashes with US interests. The new president will have to deal with currency devaluation, inflation and restricted market access due to US sanctions.
From Reuters, report on preparations for Iran's election this week
The new president is anticipated to uphold Raisi's foreign policy of distancing from the West and aligning with the East. In 2023, Iran renewed relations with Persian Gulf neighbours like Saudi Arabia, joined BRICS—a coalition of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—and became a member of the Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Both Jalili and Ghalibaf have described these moves as a "game changer."
US-Iran tensions go beyond nuclear sanctions, with the US worried about Iran’s regional influence. Iran’s regional strategy, particularly after Qassem Soleimani’s 2020 assassination, combines continuity and change in its modus operandi to strengthen its regional influence and manage détente or escalation with the US.
The post-Raisi period is expected to continue this approach. Supreme Leader Ali Khameni’s stance against negotiating on strategic issues like regional influence, and statements from candidates like Ghalibaf, who emphasised on June 16th that "my regional priority is to bolster Iranian influence", indicate Tehran will persist in managing its allies in the region. This stance complicates reviving the nuclear agreement, which is not a priority for conservatives. On June 17th, Zakani stated that "the issue with the Iranian economy is not sanctions."
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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
