5 constituencies to watch in the 2024 local elections

Analysis: New boundaries mean no other local election constituency will have as large a bearing on the upcoming general election as Arklow and Gorey

By Caoilfhionn D'Arcy and Adrian Kavanagh, Maynooth University

While media focus tends to be more on the upcoming European elections as opposed to the local elections, the results of the City and Council elections will have a greater bearing on the upcoming general election. When the increased number of Dáil seats (from 160 to 174) and retirements (at least 18 TDs, as of now, have announced they will not contest the next general election) are factored in, along with several incumbent seat losses, it is clear that the next Dáil will feature many new faces, and most of these new TDs will enter the Dáil after having first gained experience contesting, and winning, local election contests.

There will be 166 individual electoral battles taking place across the State, and some of these will have a bearing on the upcoming general election contest. Here are 5 of these contests that could prove to be very interesting:

Drogheda Urban (6 seats)

Drogheda Urban will have twenty candidates on the ballot, with the six incumbents contesting for re-election, and it possesses several factors which makes it an interesting constituency to observe. Firstly, there has been a notable increase in the number of female candidates (40.0% of all candidates, up from 12.5% in 2019), which is significant as local politics offers an excellent 'springboard’ to national politics. Both Fine Gael and Sinn Féin have selected all-women tickets, with Sinn Féin becoming the first party to run a four-candidate ticket involving just female candidates in a local election contest (Figure 1).

As geography is crucial in an efficient vote management strategy, the decision of two Drogheda-based TDs, Imelda Munster (SF) and Fergus O'Dowd (FG), to not contest the next general election provides opportunity spaces for potential new Drogheda-based candidates to be considered for selection. How the local election candidates perform within this constituency could determine their prospects as a potential general election candidate for their respective parties, especially as the experience gained campaigning in these elections provides a further benefit to any future candidates under consideration.

The Irish People and the Irish Freedom Party are both contesting Drogheda Urban (Figure 1) with three candidates each, and this constituency could act as a weathervane in terms of the potential support levels for these parties.

Portlaoise (7 seats)

Portlaoise is another constituency that is largely focused on one of Ireland’s largest provincial towns, and another constituency that will be contested by twenty candidates. Outside of Limerick, with its additional mayoral election, voters in Portlaoise and Drogheda Urban will have the largest range of choices on election day, with voters in this electoral area also needing to navigate the 27-candidate Midlands North West ballot paper. With nine women contesting the constituency, Portlaoise also has one of the highest numbers of female candidates in this year’s elections, exceeded only by Cabra-Glasnevin (10).

Portlaoise is shaping up to be the "mother of all battles", with many serious contenders. In the 2000s/2010s the town was probably one of Sinn Féin’s strongest areas outside of their Border, working class Dublin and north Kerry strongholds, but Sinn Féin has yet to win more than one seat in this electoral area. Given recent national poll levels, there must be expectation of at least one seat gain here. But they face strong competition from the incumbents, all of whom are running again, as well as other strong challengers, with most of these coming from the non-party ranks.

Table 1: Support levels for different political parties/groupings in these constituencies at the 2019 Local Elections

Palmerstown-Fonthill (5 seats)

Winning the Dublin Mid-West by-election sparked Sinn Féin's electoral renaissance after a poor electoral performance at the 2019 Local Elections and the party’s vote in the North Clondalkin area proved crucial in Mark Ward’s win in that election. Ward had topped the poll in Palmerstown-Fonthill in the local elections only a few months previously, but Sinn Féin did not come close to winning a second seat in that contest. They will expect to make at least one gain here in this year’s elections.

The four-candidate strategy that the party is running with, especially given that there are only five seats here, is a somewhat controversial approach, but the different candidates’ home bases are located in different party of the North Clondalkin area, and each will be looking to bring out their own personal vote to increase Sinn Féin support levels in their local areas. Sinn Féin missed out several seats in the 2014 elections due to poor vote management and how they fare here, especially given that most of their candidates are first-time candidates, may offer some clues as to whether they have improved on their vote management approach.

Kanturk (4 seats)

Is the political landscape of rural Ireland changing? The election results in constituencies such as Kanturk will tell a lot in this regard. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael dominated this constituency in 2019, taking all four seats and winning a combined 87% vote share (Table 1). Kanturk lies within the Cork North-West Dáil constituency, and these parties have, between them, won all the seats contested across every general election contest here since the constituency was first contested in 1981. Three of the candidates who won seats in 2019 will run again, while Trish Murphy joins John Paul O’Shea on the Fine Gael ticket, replacing her late father Gerard, who passed away in April 2024.

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From RTÉ Radio 1's The Late Debate, What's coming up on the doorsteps for Local Election 2024?

Cork North-West was the only constituency not contested by Sinn Féin in 2020, so their result in Kanturk in these elections may offer some clues as to the relative strength of Sinn Féin in Cork North-West. Trying to build on the momentum gained following the recent referendum results, Aontú will see Kanturk as a potential gain, especially as their candidate, Becky Kealy, polled well in Cork North-West in 2020. This constituency may also offer some clues as to the relative strength of the new Independent Ireland party – can they make a breakthrough outside of the constituencies of their incumbent candidates – and also determine whether the Social Democrats may be poised to replace Labour as the centre-left party of choice for rural Ireland.

Arklow (6 seats) and Gorey (6 seats)

OK, this is a bit of a cheat in focusing on two constituencies here. But the new general election boundaries created by the 2023 Electoral Commission report ensure that no other local election constituency will have as large a bearing on the upcoming general election as these two. The report transformed the five-seat Wicklow and Wexford constituency areas into two, smaller, four-seat Wicklow and Wexford constituencies, with the home bases of all the Wicklow and Wexford TDs located within these constituencies, with these constituencies separated by a new three-seat Wicklow-Wexford constituency. With no incumbent based within the new constituency, it means that – apart from Senator Malcolm Byrne – all the serious contenders to win seats in Wicklow-Wexford will emerge from these local election contests.

With the Arklow and Gorey electoral areas, located on opposite sides of the Wicklow-Wexford county boundary, accounting for a large proportion of the Wicklow-Wexford constituency area, the local election contests in these constituencies may effectively act as "semi-finals" ahead of the general election contest. Strong results for any candidates in these constituencies will increase the likelihood of them being on their party’s ticket for Wicklow-Wexford, or alternately offer serious momentum to any successful non-party candidates.

Dr Adrian Kavanagh is a lecturer at the Department of Geography at Maynooth University. He is a former Irish Research Council awardee. Caoilfhionn D'Arcy is a PhD student in the Department of Geography at Maynooth University.

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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ