Opinion: The European elections are shaping up as a key test of the advance of populist far right politics
With a week to go to the elections to the European Parliament, this pan-European electoral contest is shaping up as a key test of the advance of populist far right politics. It is also to be viewed within the framework of an existential battle playing out globally between the forces of democracy and those of autocracy.
For much of the last 15 years, the forces of democracy have been in retreat. The reports of international bodies such as Freedom House, the Global State of Democracy and the Varieties of Democracy project, which all monitor and report on the state of democracy, point to a depressing and grim topography.
From the rampant resurgence of Trumpism in the United States, to the recent re-election of Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping's decision to crown himself president for life, the phenomenon of 'strongman authoritarianism’ is convulsing global politics. The European Union has gradually become enveloped by similar nativist and authoritarian impulses. They are evident in the policies pursued by Viktor Orban-led governments in Hungary over the past decade and a half. Poland, similarly, was led by the ultra-nationalist Law and Justice party for nine years before a centrist coalition defeated it in the general election last autumn.
As we approach the tenth elections to the European Parliament (6-9 June) we are seeing a distinct darkening of the political skies in Europe.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, More than 100,000 ballots spoiled in local and European elections in 2019
The recent report for the European Council on Foreign Relations by Professor Simon Hix and Dr Kevin Cunningham presents a frightening vista of the acute danger these elections present for the European Union. In 17 out of 27 EU member states, far right or radical right parties are polling in excess of 20% in national polls. In 9 of the 27 member states, including Austria, France, Italy, and Hungary, the far right party is the leading party in the jurisdiction. In another 9 states the far right comes in second or third.
Combined with upcoming national elections in Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria and Romania, where the far right is poised to do very well, we are likely to see a quantum leap in the representation of extremist populist parties in the months ahead. This will add to the governments with far right representation now operating in Croatia, Finland, Hungary, Italy, and the Netherlands, with another – Sweden – dependent on the vote of the far right Sweden Democrats. By the end of this year the far right may be in power in up to a third of EU member states.
The fact that this is happening at both national and European level means that there may be profound consequences for the direction the European Union takes in the years ahead. We may be on the cusp of a new era in politics, defined by atavistic, populist, nationalist impulses, with all the ugly detritus familiar to us from Europe’s twentieth century past.
Why is this happening? In Europe we can point to the concurrence of a number of different crises, what French philosopher and sociologist Edgar Morin terms a "polycrisis". Although this consists of quite different phenomena we can point to multiple points of intersection and overlap. Two in particular seem to be dominating this campaign.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, What's behind the rise of the far-right in Ireland?
First, the migration crisis. The flow of asylum seekers into the European Union can be traced to 2015 when more than 1.3 million people sought asylum in Europe after a summer of mass movement of displaced people across Europe. In the immediate aftermath, EU countries found it impossible to agree on an equitable distribution of numbers.
The recently signed EU Migration Pact took almost a decade to negotiate. That timeline speaks volumes about the divisions between EU states on how to handle this crisis. Although it has been the subject of withering criticism from human rights bodies, it probably constituted the best the EU could do in the circumstances. It will take some years for its main elements to yield results. In the meantime public dissatisfaction with immigration is at an all-time high.
What most politicians will not say in public is that Europe’s demography points emphatically to the need for increased migration to adjust for stagnant or falling birth rates across the continent. At the same time, the conjunction of displacement from climate change inter-state wars and ethno-national conflict means the number of people seeking security in Europe is likely to increase significantly in the years to come. Yet the politics of migration are tilting the EU towards a more restrictive and hard-line approach.
The second significant crisis overshadowing these elections is the cost of living crisis. In some ways this connects the current period to the economic catastrophe experienced across most of the EU after 2008, when austerity was imposed in varying degrees (most severely in Ireland and Greece) as a means of 'adjustment' to financial collapse.
Read more: How the far right are misrepresenting Irish history
Even prior to that crisis, de-industrialisation in many regions of the EU helped feed dissatisfaction with centrist politics and anxiety about the future. Over the last twenty years it helped drive support for the National Rally in France, for example. In turn, de-industrialisation has led to demands for de-globalisation: the success of Joe Biden’s administration in returning good quality jobs to the ‘rustbelt’ or ‘flyover states’ in the US has only intensified pressure on European politicians to adopt similar policies subsidising specific industrial sectors.
This is in large part at odds with the impulses behind the EU’s single market, which privilege market opening and deregulation. Managing this fracturing of globalisation is proving a very uncomfortable experience for governments across Europe.
The huge increase in the cost of living after the Covid pandemic may be abating but it has dovetailed with the recent memory of austerity to form a key impulse helping radical right parties and dragging down the voting potential of centrist and governing parties. The fact that in many EU jurisdictions wages have barely increased since 2008, leaves many governments vulnerable to the charge that they have not protected their citizens. In contrast, the very wealthiest Europeans have never had it so good.
From DW News, Far right hoping for surge in upcoming EU elections
Intersecting with this across much of the continent is an unparalleled housing crisis. This consists of a combination of a shortage of affordable property for rent and sale and exorbitant increases in rents in many EU member states. Across many EU jurisdictions, including Ireland, it constitutes the most important issue in politics. It is driving people away from centrist parties to those on the populist right and left who provide easy answers to complex questions of public policy.
There are 720 seats up for grabs in the European Parliament elections. This is up from 705 in the existing cycle. Ireland will have one extra seat (14, as opposed to the current 13). Naturally enough, the largest number of seats are available in the most populous member states, with a proportional distribution according to population size across the EU27 and its population eligible to vote of circa 370 million.
These elections may see unprecedented success for far right parties across the great majority of EU states. The combination of a complex socio-economic crisis and great dissatisfaction with the EU approach to migration is driving impulses of anger, anxiety and disaffection. It remains to be seen whether the centre can hold.
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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
