Here are the top 5 risks facing Ireland in the coming years

Analysis: Of the top five risks facing Ireland, two are health-related while three are closely linked with geopolitics and climate change

Every three years a National Risk Assessment (NRA) is completed to fulfil our obligations as an EU member state. The process is managed by the Office of Emergency Planning in the Department of Defence under the authority of the Government Task Force on Emergency Planning (GTF on Emergency Planning).

Delivery of the NRA involves five key stages. In Stage 1, government departments and agencies submit potential risks to the Office of Emergency Planning, and a combined list of risks likely to trigger a national-level emergency is produced. In Stage 2, the NRA Working Group removes high-impact but low-probability risks and risks judged to be below the threshold for inclusion as a key national risk. Stage 3 involves the remaining risks being assessed by Expert Focus Groups. The experts determine the reasonable worst-case scenario linked to each risk, the likelihood of this scenario, and its impact. All these judgements are based on predefined criteria.

In Stage 4, based on data from the Expert Focus Groups, risks are plotted on a risk matrix in order to convey relative risk. Finally, in Stage 5, the National Risk Assessment is approved by the GTF on Emergency Planning, submitted to the Government and, in turn, to the EU Commission. The output from the 2023 NRA is summarised in the matrix below, where you can see the 22 key risks identified:

The Top 5 risks facing Ireland

Of the top five risks facing Ireland, two are health-related: anti-microbial resistant infection and pandemic. The other three, cyber attacks, disruption to critical supply chains, and disruption to water supply are closely linked to international issues. They reflect the volatile geopolitical landscape in Europe and beyond, plus the increasingly evident effect of climate change.

When assessing the risks, the relevant Expert Focus Group agreed on a reasonable worst-case scenario (RWCS) for each risk. It will come as no surprise that for the pandemic, the reasonable worst-case scenario was a highly transmissible virus, for example, influenza or coronavirus, on the scale of COVID-19. The reasonable worst-case scenario for antimicrobial-resistant infection was the increased morbidity and mortality due to ineffective antimicrobial treatments for anti-microbial resistant bacteria. A risk that is already being managed in our health sector on a daily basis.

The reasonable worst-case scenario for the cyber risk was the exploitation of a critical vulnerability in software in widespread use across sectors. Such an event would be a malicious attack. For disruption to critical supply chains, the reasonable worst-case scenario was a rapid escalation of regional conflict due to geopolitical tension or war, which is immediate in impact and protracted in duration, thereby leading to significant and long-term disruption to global and regional supply chains in areas that are critical to the well-being of Ireland's economy and society. Finally, the reasonable worst-case scenario for disruption to water supply was contamination, causing an immediate risk to public health, resulting in a "boil water notice" or a "do not consume notice" to be placed on a public water supply serving a large population.

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From RTÉ Radio 1's News At One, DCU's Professor Caroline McMullan on how the potential for an antibiotic resistant infection in Ireland has jumped to the top of State's National Risk Assessment

How did the public assess the same risks?

Alongside the expert assessments completed as part of the NRA, DCU conducted some research with the public. Using an online questionnaire, we asked the public to assess the same 22 risks.

The results revealed that the public rated cyber attacks as the highest risk, followed by a cluster of risks: disruption to critical supply chains, pandemic, water supply disruption, damage to undersea infrastructure, disruption to electricity/gas, and disruption to oil supply. A comparison between the public and expert risk ratings showed close alignment for many risks, although there were differences for air incidents, terror attacks, and disruption to oil supply. The comparison in risk rating is illustrated in the diagram below:

The research also gathered data on the level of worry that the public feels in relation to each risk. The top worry was in relation to losing electricity/gas supply, followed by a cyber attack, a pandemic, anti-microbial resistant infections, and disruption to critical supply chains (which could include food and medicine).

What happens next?

The outputs from the NRA process will inform the GTF on Emergency Planning's work programme and the risk management activities of government departments and agencies over the next two years. This will include making decisions about investment in measures to reduce the level of risk posed by the top risks, putting plans in place to manage the emergencies which could be triggered, and conducting exercises to check that these plans will work. Demonstrating the capacity to manage the risks outlined in the current NRA is crucial for the GTF on Emergency Planning. Furthermore, this capability must be reported to the EU before July 2024.

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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ