Analysis: the possibility of sabotage at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is an example of the ecological warfare waged by Russia in Ukraine
By Iryna Andrusiak and Brendan Flynn , Universty of Galway and Olesia Zhytkova, DCU
The destruction of the Kakhovka dam complex in June 2023 seems part of a wider trend of ecological warfare waged by Russia. The very latest threat is the possibility that Russian forces will deliberately sabotage the huge Zaporizhzhia nuclear complex, European largest nuclear power facility.
While the plant is shut down, a significant quantity of radioactive material remains potentially unsafe and requires constant monitoring. The idea that it might be deliberately sabotaged by explosives is a whole new type of threat, designed to spread radioactive contamination and fear.
From BBC Newsnight, is Europe's largest nuclear power plant about to be attacked?
How likely is this scenario?
Echoing how western intelligence agencies tried to forestall the invasion, Ukraine's Defence intelligence service has gone public, claiming that Russian forces have rigged demolition explosives at the plant. To underscore this warning, civil protection drills have been held in nearby Ukrainian held territory. While this threat has been downplayed by the United States and, to some extent, the International Atomic Energy Agency, who noted no hard evidence of explosives, based on their earlier visit in June, the mere fact that it is being discussed remains deeply worrying.
This type of sabotage fits a pattern of Russian 'ecological warfare’. First came the sudden seizure of the Chornobyl nuclear waste site, allied with severe mistreatment of the dedicated staff who keep it safe. Then came the Kakhovka flood, which is directly connected to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear complex, providing backup for the cooling reservoirs.
It seems most likely this flooding was caused by either deliberate or negligent Russian actions in the context of Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Ukraine has little to gain from it militarily. Indeed a large number of Ukrainians lost their lives: possibly over 500 people, according to the WHO’s latest analysis. Moreover, while the flood waters may have abated, the ecological consequences of the dam sabotage in what was prime agricultural land, will last well beyond this war. Pollution will also travel beyond Ukraine’s borders further contaminating the Black Sea.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Today With Claire Byrne, Channel 4's Lindsey Hilsum and University of Birmingham's Scott Lucas assess the damage from the destruction of the Kakhovka dam
One rationale for sabotaging Zaporizhzhia may be to create a freezing moment before Ukrainian forces can make more gains. Creating crises to handle their own crises has become part of Putin’s tactics. With Russia's steady loss of ground and severe manpower problems, a Zaporizhzhia disaster would also allow Putin to consolidate his weakening domestic powerbase.
Russia’s military have previously scripted 'escalate to de-escalate' scenarios using tactical nuclear weapons during exercises in 2017. However, a more confused radiological incident might achieve the same effects without the reaction a direct nuclear strike could invite.
How bad could sabotage of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant be?
While not the same as the employment of a tactical nuclear weapon, sabotaging Zaporizhzhia would unquestionably be a profound ecological crisis for Ukrainians and wider Europe. Many may remember the Chornobyl disaster from 1986, when radioactivity levels for Irish sheep necessitated Irish food export safety certification for many years. A sabotage of Zaporizhzhia would not likely be the same as the Chornobyl disaster, when there was an actual atmospheric nuclear explosion, but it could look more like the Fukushima disaster of 2011.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Drivetime in 2021, Greenpeace East Asia senior nuclear specialist Shaun Burnie on the impact of Japan's plans to dump wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean
In fact, many of the parameters concerning the scale of possible radiological contamination are uncertain, strongly weather dependent or are debated between experts. Russia itself could suffer contamination. One likely outcome for Ireland and the EU would be increased flows of Ukrainian refugees. Local Ukrainian civil protection drills envisaged up to 300,000 people being evacuated. The panicky social and human consequences could therefore be as bad, if not worse, than the immediate and long-term radiological risks, the latter of which are potentially disastrous for a food producing nation like Ukraine.
What can be done to avert this scenario?
Exposing the threat is one thing, but Russia’s current leadership has repeatedly shown itself indifferent to western public opinion. There have been innovative calls, rejected by Russia, for the entire plant to be declared a demilitarized zone, supervised by international technical experts possibly under the auspices of the UN.
Ireland could provide renewed diplomatic leadership for this type of solution to be urgently re-explored at EU and UN levels. The EU should also enhance its civil protection aid to rapidly support Ukrainian civil protection CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear) capabilities. However, Ireland offering practical aid is unlikely, given our limited civil CBRN expertise shared between the Civil Defence, An Garda Siochaná and the Defence Forces, who only recently ordered new protective suits.
Ultimately, the threat of holding Ukraine and the rest of Europe hostage to a nuclear catastrophe at Zaporizhzhia underscores just how important it is for Ukraine to recover its full territorial sovereignty under the terms of the UN Charter. As it unfolds, Ukraine's war is increasingly becoming existential for all of us, in ways we could never have imagined.
Dr. Iryna Andrusiak is a post-doctoral researcher on the MISTE project at the Moore Institute at Universty of Galway. Dr. Brendan Flynn is an Assistant Professor and Head of the Discipline of Political Science at the School of Political Science and Sociology at Universty of Galway. Dr. Olesia Zhytkova is a Postdoctoral Researcher at DCU's Business School. She is an Irish Research Council awardee.
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
