Analysis: next week's election will see if Zimbabwe's voters are ready for change after decades of treachery, suspicion and fear under Robert Mugabe
On July 30th, Zimbabwe makes history by holding its first election since independence was achieved in 1980 without Robert Gabriel Mugabe on the ballot paper. However, that is not to say that the treachery, suspicion and fear that characterised Mugabe’s rule has been entirely purged from the country’s political system.
Born in 1924, the young Mugabe got his first taste of revolution from tales of the Irish War of Independence, told to him by Irish Jesuit teacher Jerome O’Hea, who recognised genius in the boy. After his studies, Mugabe became a teacher and later a revolutionary, battling white minority rule in what was then Southern Rhodesia. Following the 15-year Rhodesian Bush War, much of which he spent in prison, and the signing of the Lancaster House Agreement in 1979, Mugabe become the first democratically-elected leader of the renamed Zimbabwe in 1980.
Despite some early indications that his governance would be inclusive, Mugabe soon displayed the viciousness that would lead him to boast in later years that he was a man with a "degree in violence". He used ethnic cleansing and widespread political repression to consolidate his power. Government-instigated pogroms in the 1980s are said to have resulted in the deaths of at least 20,000 people. The attacks were conducted with unimaginable brutality and targeted the Ndebele ethnic group, from which Mugabe’s rivals, the Zimbabwe African People’s Union, drew most of its supporters.
Later, Mugabe pursued a different type of ethnicised politics, seizing land from predominantly white farmers and awarding it to loyal supporters, hastening the catastrophic decline of Zimbabwe’s economy. It also led to a more haphazard series of subsequent land seizures by the public, resulting in the murder of landowners and condemnation by Zimbabwe’s courts. Mugabe disregarded the judiciary and retroactively justified the seizures with a presidential decree permitting land expropriation on the grounds that indigenous people could reclaim what was rightfully theirs.
For most of his time as a revolutionary and president, one of Mugabe’s most loyal allies was Emerson Mnangagwa. Known as "The Crocodile" for his political shrewdness, Mnangagwa allegedly played a critical role in the massacre of thousands of Ndebele civilians, was a key strategist in the looting of billions of dollars-worth of illicit diamonds from the Congo during the Great War of Africa and was centrally involved in organising a campaign of violence to suppress opposition in the 2008 elections.
In return for his loyalty, Mugabe promised Mnangagwa the presidency when he retired. However, the president made similar promises to his wife Grace, a woman 41 years his junior with political ambitions of her own. Despite being married to the leader of one of the poorest countries on earth, Grace developed a reputation for extravagant international shopping sprees, leading to the labels "Gucci Grace" and "The First Shopper".
Although cordial to one another over the years, Grace and Mnangagwa realised they were vying for the same position once the incumbent stepped down or died. In November 2017, Mugabe made his chosen successor clear by sacking Mnangagwa as vice-president, a rare political misstep from the nonagenarian.
Next came a coup d'état in all but name, as the military – which supported Mnangagwa – toppled Mugabe, paving the way for the return of the Crocodile from South Africa, to where he had fled after being fired. He assumed the role of interim president and appointed the commander of the Zimbabwean army to the position of vice-president.
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From RTÉ Radio One's Drivetime, RTÉ journalist, Richard Downes, who was the BBC's Southern Africa Correspondent in the 1990s, profiles Robert Mugabe as his presidency drew to a close.
Since coming to power, Mnangagwa has indicated an aspiration to be a more progressive leader than his predecessor. Zimbabwe’s laws are being changed to make a more business-friendly environment. Elections, promised to be free and fair, were announced for July and, for the first time in years, election monitors from Western nations will be welcome. He has reassured white farmers there will be no more land invasions and Zimbabwe has even applied to re-join the Commonwealth, 16 years after it was suspended for rigged elections and political repression.
However, concerns remain that these positive signs are just window dressing, orchestrated by a man who brutally aided with turning Zimbabwe from Africa’s breadbasket into an economic basket case. Earlier this month, footage emerged of the army violently preventing people from leaving a rally midway through a speech by Mnangagwa. Opposition parties say the Mugabe-era practice of rigging the electoral roll has continued. Government ministers have indicated if Mnangagwa loses next week, there will be no peaceful handover of power, and Deputy Finance Minister Terence Mukupe even said that the army would never allow the opposition to rule.
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From RTÉ Radio One's Morning Ireland, Dr George Karekwaivanane, Lecturer in African Studies at the University of Edinburgh, analyses the future for Zimbabweans with the return of Emerson Mnangagwa
In addition to an opposition reinvigorated by Mugabe’s departure, the president faces political and existential threats from within his own party, ZANU-PF. Grace still commands considerable party support and her followers have called for Mnangagwa’s arrest for crimes he committed under his predecessor. In June, Mnangagwa survived what he described as an assassination attempt, when a bomb exploded at a party campaign rally. Two people died in the explosion, for which the president blamed Grace Mugabe’s supporters.
Last week, the incumbent was dealt another blow with the release of an opinion poll conducted by Afrobarometer, a highly authoritative African research network. It indicated that Mnangagwa had 40 percent support, while his only realistic challenger, Nelson Chamisa, was on 37 percent. If no candidate secures at least 50 percent of the votes, a run-off is scheduled for September 8th, which now seems likely.
Fears of rigging and repression remain, as 45 percent of voters think it likely that incorrect results will be announced
According to the same poll, one fifth of voters are undecided. In a country with Zimbabwe’s history of repression, one could speculate that opposition voters would be less likely to publicly voice their support than those backing the government. Fears of rigging and repression remain, as 45 percent of voters think it likely that incorrect results will be announced and, if Mnangagwa loses, the security agencies will not accept the result.
But if the election is conducted in a broadly free and fair manner, and if the majority of that undecided cohort are supporting Chamisa over Mnangagwa, Southern Africa may well be in for an electoral earthquake.
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
