Michael McQuaid of Pro Football Ireland looks at some of the key storylines ahead of the 16th week of the 2024 NFL season, which gets underway tonight (1.15am Irish time) with the visit of the Denver Broncos to the Los Angeles Chargers.
Play-off permutations
With three weeks of the regular season remaining, this weekend is crucial for several teams aiming to clinch play-off spots. The Baltimore Ravens have a straightforward path to secure theirs with a win, tie, or specific outcomes from the Dolphins and Colts games. The Denver Broncos can clinch with a win, tie, or if the Dolphins, Bengals and Colts all falter. The Los Angeles Chargers need either a win with help from the Dolphins and Colts or a very specific tie scenario.
The Green Bay Packers can clinch with a win or tie, or with losses or ties from the Falcons and either the Rams or Seahawks. Finally, the Washington Commanders can make the play-offs with a win under certain conditions involving the Falcons, Rams, and Seahawks, or a complex tie scenario.
Every game this weekend could be pivotal for these teams' play-off hopes as we enter the final stretch.
AFC North on the line
A big match-up awaits this weekend for control of the AFC North on Saturday night (9.30pm). The Steelers have a strong record against Baltimore recently, winning seven of the last eight games, with each of the last nine games decided by seven points or less.
Despite this, the Ravens have an explosive offence led by Lamar Jackson, though they've struggled against Pittsburgh. There have been doubts at times this season over the Ravens' physicality and ability to protect the ball, especially against a Steelers' defence that has forced 15 fumbles this season compared to the Ravens' four.
The Steelers have clinched a play-off spot, and a victory over the Ravens would secure them the AFC North title. Currently, the Steelers stand at 10-4, leading the division, with the Ravens close behind at 9-5. Earlier this year in Week 11 at Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh edged out Baltimore with an 18-16 win. This will be a tight affair in Baltimore on Saturday.
Now or never for Seattle
The Seattle Seahawks welcome the Minnesota Vikings to Lumen Field this Sunday, knowing how crucial a win is to their post-season hopes. The Seahawks currently sit second in the NFC West, behind the Los Angeles Rams on a tiebreaker. With the Rams improving as each week goes on, the Seahawks know how important this game is. Outside of the NFC West automatic play-off position for the winner, the Seahawks sit one game back on the Commanders for the final spot in the play-off positions.
The Vikings have been a dominant force this season, averaging 26.1 points per game while allowing only 18.5 points on defence, which ranks them ninth and fourth in the league respectively. A rejuvenated Sam Darnold has been on a roll, completing 66.1% of his passes for 1,389 yards, with 12 touchdowns and just one interception over the last five games, leading to an average of 29.6 points per game during that stretch.
On the other side, the Seahawks have shown resilience but have struggled offensively, ranking 21st in EPA (Expected Points Added) per play. Seattle's defence has been effective in pressuring quarterbacks, with 129 total pressures and a notable 11.8% knockdown rate per pass attempt. That being said, the Seahawks' recent performance against the run might be tested by the versatile duo of Aaron Jones and the Vikings' ground game. With the Seahawks potentially without their starting QB Geno Smith due to a knee injury, this game could tilt in the direction of the Vikings, who are looking to maintain their hot streak and secure play-off positioning (they currently sit 12-2 in a heavily congested NFC North).
Whelan Watch
Enniskerry’s Dan Whelan has been impressing many this season and he is a leading candidate for a Pro Bowl selection in the next few weeks. If this were to happen, Whelan would be the first Irish player in NFL history to achieve this feat.
Us 🤝 Cris Collinsworth punt breakdowns. 😂 pic.twitter.com/2UVpsUKRdR
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) December 16, 2024
Whelan has had an average of 46.5 yards per punt, placing him among the league's best. His hang time is also impressive, averaging 4.79 seconds per punt, which significantly aids in coverage and reduces the return yardage for the opposing team - something we have seen multiple times this season.
Whelan’s skill of flipping the field is obvious in his ability to pin opponents deep, often inside their 10-yard line, showcasing his strategic impact in crucial games. We will find out next week if Whelan makes history with a selection, with entries closing on 23 December.
Draft race
As we enter the final stretch, we know that we are closer to locking up the NFL Draft order. One game stands out this weekend - Jaguars v Raiders. This weekend's match-up is huge for both teams' draft positions. A win for either team could potentially push them down in the draft order (Las Vegas is currently first, while Jacksonville is fourth), while a loss would keep them in contention for a higher pick. Top prospects like Heisman winner Travis Hunter or Shedeur Sanders will be watching this weekend's game closely.
One final thing to note - the expanded College Football Play-off launches this weekend, with an increase from four to 12 teams. It’s not just the GAA that has changed the structures - this expanded play-off will allow for more games at the festive period - which none of us will complain about.
The National Championship takes place on Monday, 20 January, two weeks before Super Bowl LIX.
