When Leinster and the Bulls met at the RDS back at the end of March, it felt like there was every chance they would be locking horns again by the summer.
What we didn't expect was a play-off rematch to be happening in Pretoria rather than Dublin.
Leinster’s impressive 47-14 win, and the weekend’s other results, saw the province move five points clear at the top of the BKT United Rugby Championship table by Easter Sunday, nine ahead of the Bulls in third, with Munster a further two points further back.
That night at the RDS, it looked like Leinster were on the march towards the league’s top seed. They traded blows with the South Africans in a brilliant first half and trailed 14-12 at half-time, only to score 35 unanswered points after the break.
They looked ruthless, exciting, and primed to hit the business end of the season like a wrecking ball.
Bulls coach Jake White, never afraid of firing a few press conference grenades, could only sit back and praise his hosts that evening, even if the Bulls had grounds for appeal after Leinster’s Luke McGrath was lucky to escape a red card at a crucial stage in the game.
"The one thing that Leinster have taught me tonight and reaffirmed is the ability for them to go into transition from defence into attack, it was phenomenal," White said at the RDS that night.
"Every time we made a mistake they punished us."
So how did they end up at Loftus Versfeld this weekend?
Following that impressive win, the province kept the ball rolling across the next fortnight, swatting aside Leicester Tigers and La Rochelle in the Champions Cup, before their desire for a fifth star on their jersey saw them take their eye off the ball in the URC.
Wrapping their frontline players in cotton wool, they sent a second-string panel to South Africa for games against the Lions and Stormers and returned home without a point, before doing similar the week before the Champions Cup final, and losing away to Ulster. All the while, Munster were coming up the rails to move top of the table and snatch a home semi-final, and maybe even a home final, out of their neighbours' hands.
This week, they’re backed into a corner, or rather they have backed themselves into a corner.
For a team that have consistently been competing for Champions Cup and URC titles in recent seasons, the province are in unfamiliar territory.
Semi-finals are nothing new to the four-time European champions, but they’re barely on nodding terms with away semi-finals.
The last knockout game on the road came more than two years ago, a Champions Cup quarter-final in which they were always likely to defeat Leicester Tigers, while their last semi-final away from Dublin was in 2021 as they lost to then upstarts La Rochelle.
Considering that La Rochelle game came in an empty stadium, you’d have to go back as far as the 2019 Pro14 final at Celtic Park in Glasgow for the last time they really had the real 'away team' experience in a big knockout game.
The Bulls at Loftus Versfeld isn't your run of the mill away day, with the altitude of 1,350 metres above sea level set to test the Leinster lungs. For the vast majority of this Leinster side, it will be their first time visiting South Africa since the arrival of the four franchises in 2021. The fact that many of this Leinster side will be back in the Highveld with Ireland next month is another great wrinkle to this game.
The Pretorians are formidable at home, but even accounting for altitude and unfamiliar surroundings, Leinster have more than enough talent to bridge that gap.
All 15 of the starting team are Ireland internationals, while Ross Molony and Jamie Osborne are the only players without international experience on the bench.
Only six of today’s starters also did so when the pair met at the RDS on Good Friday, but 18 of this matchday 23 had some involvement.
Hugo Keenan is the notable absentee as he continues his Olympic preparations with the Ireland Sevens team, but Jimmy O’Brien has seamlessly filled the 15 shirt in recent weeks.
The return of Garry Ringrose could be the spark that Leinster need. The centre has played just once since the end of January due to a persistent shoulder injury, but comes straight into the starting side at outside centre, allowing Robbie Henshaw move into his preferred 12 role.
Throughout Leinster’s patchy form in the last eight weeks, their attacking game has lacked the usual creativity associated with Leo Cullen’s side, and his return will be a major boost against a Bulls side who are picking up injuries at the wrong time.
The South Africans lost Springbok World Cup winner Kurt-Lee Arendse to a facial injury in the last week, and the 27-year-old was outstanding when the sides met in Dublin in March. Additionally, the Bulls are without 21-year-old Canan Moodie in the centre, but they have been able to welcome back one of their world champions, flanker Marco van Staden.
They may be on a five-game winning streak, but looking under the bonnet of those wins, they aren’t at the top of their game. They made hard work of their quarter-final win against Benetton a week ago, while defensively they’ve been porous; a 40-34 win against Glasgow, 61-24 versus the Ospreys, and conceding a combined 58 points across two wins over Treviso. They may be the highest scorers in the league, but it would be a dangerous game to go gunslinging with Leinster.
The build-up to this game has been dominated by two of the league’s big dogs fighting to be underdogs.
Even with home advantage, the Bulls can lay a greater claim to that tag due to their injuries, but there’s a clear siege mentality emerging in the Leinster camp.
Robin McBryde led that charge on Tuesday when he suggested that the odds were "stacked" in favour of their hosts, even if the bookmakers, who have Leinster as six-point favourites, disagree.
Back in 2022, Leinster found out the hard way that the favourites' tag ultimately counts for nothing, when the Bulls came to the RDS and ambushed them in the semi-finals, having the province their first trophyless season since 2017.
Two years on, Leinster are still waiting to get their hands on silverware. If they want to do so, they have to do it the hard way.
Listen to the RTÉ Rugby podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Watch the URC semi-final, Bulls v Leinster, on Saturday from 2.30pm on RTÉ One and RTÉ Player,
Listen to live commentary of Bulls v Leinster, and Munster v Glasgow Warriors on Saturday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1, and follow a live blog on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app.
