Leinster overcame Ulster relatively easily to set up an away BKT URC semi-final at high altitude against the Bulls in Pretoria on Saturday.
Richie Murphy's side went down with a fight, losing to Leinster for the first time this season.
They’ve continued to expose small areas of weakness in the Leinster game that the Bulls will take interest in.
Leo Cullen’s side looked vulnerable under the high ball and in the back field.
With the high line speed and narrow defence that Leinster play with, they’re always going to put their back field under pressure when covering the space.
Hugo Keenan's absence in that regard is a huge loss for the eight-time URC champions.
Jimmy O’Brien (below) has hit form upon his return from injury and is creating many chances in attack.
He’s been a serious addition when on the front foot, however, they coughed up many balls in the air, some from O’Brien; others were a result of Ulster’s ability to recognise changes in the back field, or manipulating those changes themselves.
They kicked high on Ross Byrne after a goal line restart, knowing that Byrne stays once he’s kicked them.
The visitors were unfortunate not to get a better return from the ball that they disrupted in the air. A few knock-ons could have fallen differently in another game.
The South African teams are well able to compete in this area of the game.
The try that got them over the line against Benetton last weekend was directly from a contestable kick that they won back, leading to some Johan Goosen magic and David Kriel scored in the far side of the pitch.
We’ve seen that style of play from the Springboks in the past, and while the South African teams can loosen play a bit more than that stereotype, they can still resort to it when needed, and pounce on a loose ball.
Simple, beautiful rugby 🥹
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David Kriel gets the Vodacom @BlueBullsRugby crowd on their feet with their third try of the match!@vodacom #URC #BULvBEN pic.twitter.com/619mr9D7jk
The kicking game that Ulster tried to expose last weekend, and the tactic that won the earlier game in the URC, is a strength of the Pretoria side as well. Between Goosen and Willie le Roux, expect them to kick balls in behind Leinster.
They scored after just 24 seconds against Benetton.
An Italian exit that stayed in field was countered with a kick over the top from Le Roux after clever play from Goosen to snap back to the narrow side in defence.
Kurt-Lee Arendse was on hand to catch the bouncing ball and they scored immediately from the start of the game. Arendse is a big loss to injury for the Bulls, but the template will remain the same.
Keenan gets Leinster out of a lot of trouble because of his engine and ability to cover space.
O’Brien is no slouch, but losing Keenan will always open them up a bit more to that kicking game.
Leinster will need to be disciplined too. When Jake White’s men struggled against Benetton, they relied on the rangy boot of Goosen to kick three points. He’s a quality goal kicker and Leinster can’t afford to start slow or he’ll build a lead with his boot.
The hosts will most likely use Byrne’s (above) channel to get front-foot ball and get into their game that way.
Harold Vorster, the Bulls inside centre, is very powerful on the gainline. Expect to see them manipulating their starter plays to isolate the Leinster out-half.
With all that said, the beaten Champions Cup finalists didn’t have to hit top gear to put Ulster away.
Ulster gave a good account of themselves but Leinster were too strong from the start, taking a 17-0 lead into half-time.
They have a seriously strong squad, which is most important when dealing with the altitude in South Africa. They’ll need to be clever with these substitutions and will probably make those changes earlier than they did last weekend.
The Bulls are dealing with their own injuries, so Leinster’s squad is a real strength in this tie to see them over the line. They’ll need to get it right to manage the flow of momentum in the game.
The four-time European champions are organised, dangerous in attack, strong in defence and now have added motivation when going down to South Africa.
Leinster can use the Bulls as a serious springboard to get back to Ireland and win this tournament
They want to atone for some of their knockout errors. Don’t forget, they were a drop goal attempt away from being the Champions Cup winners. They’ll be going to Loftus as favourites, and rightly so.
The Bulls defence was amateurish at times last weekend and Benetton exploited that.
If they allow Leinster the same space, they’ll move the Bulls into softer spaces, with fast ball and the South Africans will run out of steam.
The breakdown will be a huge part of that fast ball. The Bulls will need to stop Jamison Gibson-Park at the base of the ruck if they have any chance of slowing down this Leinster redemption.
It's also important to note that Leinster could be teeing up a final against Munster, a game that would give them extra motivation.
Alternatively, they could still get a home final if Glasgow can turn Munster over in Thomond Park and Leinster win on the road, which is completely plausible.
Munster used the South African trips last year on the way to their success and Leinster can use the Bulls as a serious springboard to get back to Ireland and win this tournament.
South African teams have added a great dynamic to this league with an added factor in the knockout stages.
It offers Leinster a chance to get out of their comfort zone on the road to reach a league final, and I believe it will suit them to do it the hard way.
They'll have to keep their discipline, deal with the aerial battle much better than last week and cover the space in their back field to limit the effect of Johan Goosen and Willie Le Roux.
They should have too much firepower for the Bulls and gather momentum going into the final, regardless of who they’ll be playing.
A big opportunity but tough task awaits them.
Watch the URC semi-final, Bulls v Leinster, on Saturday from 2.30pm on RTÉ One and RTÉ Player, follow a live blog on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app and listen to commentary on Saturday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1
Follow a live blog on the URC semi-final, Munster v Glasgow Warriors, on Saturday from 6pm on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app and listen to commentary on Saturday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1
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