Everything is in play for Ulster this evening.
Richie Murphy's side are strangely placed heading into the final round of the BKT United Rugby Championship.
Already guaranteed a play-off spot, they’re still looking to lock in their qualification for the Investec Champions Cup next season.
With their 5.15pm kick-off away to Munster (live on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player) falling at the end of the weekend running order, it’s conceivable that by kick-off their qualification for the top tier of European rugby could already be secure. If the chips fall another way earlier in the afternoon, Ulster may even need a win to ensure a top-six finish, which would cement their Champions Cup spot.
Given where they were towards the end of February, the province have done well to get to this final round with their fate in their own hands.
Four wins in a row since their heavy Challenge Cup quarter-final defeat to Clermont Auvergne – the latest being a gripping comeback win against Leinster in Belfast – have put them back on the right track on the pitch, while they’re also starting to see some stability off it.
Murphy’s appointment on a two-year contract has been followed this week by the addition of experienced former Connacht forwards coach Jimmy Duffy to the coaching ticket, while the recruitment of out-half Aidan Morgan from the Hurricanes has cleared some of the uncertainty heading into next season. Morgan is set to replace Billy Burns in the squad, with the out-half moving to this evening's opponents Munster.
There’s still a job to be done this season though. Two games are guaranteed, three would be a bonus, while four would be dreamland.
Considering their hefty injury list has claimed Iain Henderson and James Hume among others, it’s unlikely this four-game winning run gets extended to eight, and finishes with them lifting the URC trophy. Then again, we probably said the same about Munster in 2023.
If Graham Rowntree’s side shocked everyone to win the title just over 12 months ago to the day, they aren't slipping into this year’s play-offs under the radar.
The defending champions’ form since the turn of the year has seen them rocket up the table. Where once there were doubts if they would be able to make up enough ground to secure a home quarter-final, one more win will give them home advantage for as long as they remain in the competition.
After meandering through the first three months of the season, while dealing with a seismic injury crisis, they started trending upwards during the Six Nations period when they made the most of some relatively easy fixtures.
Their Champions Cup exit to Northampton had the potential to dent their confidence, but it’s had the opposite effect, allowing them to compartmentalise their fixtures into mini-blocks.
A weekend off after Northampton allowed them prepare well for their two wins in South Africa. A weekend off after South Africa gave them the chance to recharge the batteries before wins against Connacht and Edinburgh. A weekend off after Edinburgh leads into this week’s visit of Ulster, and whatever the play-offs bring.
Of course the province would have loved to be fighting on two fronts, but if they can retain a URC title, their Round of 16 exit in the Champions Cup will be a lot more palatable. The season has given them lemons, and they’re making lemonade.
"We wanted to be in the two competitions as long as we possibly could," attack coach Mike Prendergast told RTÉ Sport earlier this week.
"Coming out of the Champions Cup, there was those few weeks of breaks in-between and you could see it, we looked fresher, I will say that. We had new legs back as well, adding to the competition for places, but also we were able to mix and match a small bit and put certain guys, tactically, on the bench.
"When you look back at those South Africa games as well, there was a good plan behind that so all those things aligned fairly well. I know it’s a bit of cliche but it’s all about your next game as well and we have to win that on Saturday."
Up until this month their form at Thomond Park, and their results in Interpros had been a source of frustration in the camp. Away defeats to all three provinces, and a home loss to Leinster at Christmas had left without a derby win this season, while they failed to win either of their home Champions Cup outings.
Their 47-12 hammering of Connacht at Thomond earlier this month has balanced that ledger somewhat, while their fast style of play and passing game has started to gel with the improving weather conditions.
"We weren't happy with where we were at, and really built on that and put in a massive performance against Connacht," scrum-half Craig Casey (below) says.
"Connacht were fighting for their lives. It was a real Interpro and we were very happy with what we did in that game, and the scoreline at the end of it.
"Not a 'monkey off the back' but definitely something we can build on coming into these - hopefully - four games at home."
Ulster will have no fear travelling to Limerick having won there on their last visit in October 2022, among three wins in their last four meetings with Munster.
"A brilliant challenge, isn’t it?" Ulster assistant Jonny Bell remarked this week.
"They’re all guns blazing, going for that top spot, and we want to get into that [Champions Cup] spot so it’s all to play for. It’s going to be tough but we’re very excited about it."
Regardless of this evening’s outcome, Ulster know they’ll be back on the training pitch on Monday, preparing for a URC quarter-final trip to one of Glasgow, Pretoria, Dublin, or maybe even a return trip to Limerick.
And Bell only has to look back on last season to remind his players that there may well be a few twists in this season.
"It is a big challenge for us, but you look at Munster last year, they had to come from seventh place and win away, away, away, so that’s where we are and that’s what it takes.
"We’re four games on the bounce and we’re getting better week on week so it’s probably a good time to be finding a bit of momentum, a bit of form. That doesn’t mean you’re going to win every game.
"We’re playing the defending champions in their own backyard, but we’ve just got to make sure that we focus on our own game and don’t go down to Thomond Park, get slightly side-tracked by other things or you can come out on the wrong side of things," he added.
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