The weather forecast in Galway this evening is favourable, but Connacht are still bracing themselves for a storm.
With two games left in the regular schedule of the BKT United Rugby Championship, the province have their season on the line.
In the aftermath of last week's 47-12 defeat to Munster at Thomond Park, captain Jack Carty described this evening’s visit of the Stormers to Galway as a "cup final". On Tuesday, his head coach Pete Wilkins agreed that the play-offs start now.
Mathematically speaking, Connacht’s hopes of making the actual play-offs, and qualifying for next season’s Investec Champions Cup, could still be alive if they lose against the South Africans tonight (live on RTÉ2, 5:05pm).
In more realistic terms, if they can’t beat the Stormers at home, it’s hard to see them doing it away to Leinster next time out.
With two games to play, the 2016 champions are ninth in the table, five points and four points back from both Edinburgh and Benetton respectively, who occupy seventh and eighth in the table. Crucially, those sides will meet in Edinburgh in the final round of games on 1 June.
Eighth place will be enough for a spot in the play-offs, but it may not be enough for the Champions Cup. If the Sharks win the Challenge Cup next week, then whoever finishes eighth in the URC would have to go on and lift the trophy themselves in order to secure a place in Europe’s top-tier competition next season.
Financially, another season in the Champions Cup would make a big difference for Connacht, a point that will be illustrated this evening at the Dexcom Stadium.
The diggers have already moved into the Sportsground to begin construction on their new high-performance facility, and today’s visit of the Stormers will be their last home game before the Clan Stand is knocked down and rebuilt with a new 7,000 capacity.
The cost of the Sportsground’s remodeling is believed to have jumped by more than €10m since plans were first revealed in 2018, with the project now estimated to be coming in at €40m. By the time it’s due to be finished in 2026, that number could rise further.
Government funding of €20m has been secured to help them along the way, but it still leaves them with a large balance to make up, and in line with that there’s notable belt-tightening taking place in the squad.
On Thursday, the province confirmed the names of the 11 players who will be leaving the squad this summer, and although every final home game of every season carries the end-of-an-era feeling, this year’s list is especially so.
Tiernan O’Halloran retires with the fourth-most appearances in the history of the province, while two other provincial centurions, Jarrad Butler and Tom Farrell, will also be moving on.
In Farrell’s case, his upcoming move to Munster has been read by some as a coup for the defending champions, but it’s understood that the centre was informed by Connacht that they didn’t have a deal for him next season prior to Munster’s interest.
Throw in the likes of Tom Daly, Gavin Thornbury and Dominic Robertson-McCoy, and Connacht are saying goodbye to a lot of experience; those six players have played a combined 716 games for the province.
Wilkins’ side will be light on experience next season, with Denis Buckley, Jack Carty, Caolin Blade, Bundee Aki, Finlay Bealham and Dave Heffernan the only players in next season’s group who will have played more than 100 games for Connacht. Below that, only Paul Boyle, Conor Oliver and John Porch have more than 75 appearances for them.
Aside from Josh Murphy, who rejoins after a sabbatical to pursue his medical studies, eight other players will arrive into the senior squad next season, but most have limited top-level experience.
Three of the new arrivals are academy graduates, with Matthew Devine, Hugh Gavin and Chay Mullins promoted to senior ranks, while five others come in from the outside; Temi Lasisi and Ben Murphy arrive from Leinster’s academy, while ex-Ulster pair Adam McBurney and David O’Connor join from Edinburgh and Ealing Trailfinders respectively.
Only utility back Piers O’Connor, who signed from Bristol Bears, can boast extensive game time at the top level.
The reality is that Connacht may not have the depth to compete in both the URC and Champions Cup next season, even if they qualify, an opinion offered by Bernard Jackman on this week’s RTÉ Rugby podcast.
"I think they might be better off in the Challenge Cup next season," he said.
It's the end of an era tomorrow for Connacht when they welcome the Stormers to town, the last home game at the Sportsground before the Clan Terrace gets knocked down.
— RTÉ Sport (@RTEsport) May 17, 2024
Live coverage of @ConnachtRugby v @theStormers from 4.30pm on @RTÉ2 and @RTÉPlayer pic.twitter.com/5ND7bauwl4
"I think that they just don't have the squad, potentially, to play those extra games at that level yet.
"That’s a hard thing to convince a board. If you want to keep players or recruit players, not being in the Champions Cup isn't ideal."
The URC schedule isn’t kind to Connacht. With derby matches protected, Connacht face extra Interpros against Leinster, Munster and Ulster every season. Meanwhile, their play-off rivals Benetton and Edinburgh get an extra game against Zebre every season.
Wilkins has never used that schedule as an excuse, in part because Connacht have grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory more than enough times this season.
If they miss out on the play-offs, it will be more to do with mistakes earlier in the campaign, than anything that’s gone on this week.
In Round 4 away to Edinburgh the province twice came from seven points down to draw level, only to lose to a Ben Healy drop-goal with the final play of the game. One month later, they failed to see out a 22-19 lead against Leinster in Galway, losing to a Ciarán Frawley try (below) with the final play of the game.
Coming out of the Six Nations window, the province appeared to be in decent fettle following wins over Cardiff and Scarlets, but a 38-14 thumping at home to a 14-man Lions side in late March has left them chasing a league position, rather than managing one.
They’ve only lost three of their last six, but their attack is having to work overtime to make up for their struggles on defence; they’ve conceded an average of 30 points per game across those six.
Mack Hansen’s delayed return from a dislocated shoulder, and JJ Hanrahan’s recent anterior cruciate ligament injury haven’t helped, although it’s hard to see what major difference the pair could have made last week in Limerick.
Hansen will also miss this evening’s visit of the Stormers, but Santiago Cordero is set to make his long-awaited debut. The Argentina international cruelly tore his ACL in his first week of pre-season training following his high-profile arrival from Bordeaux.
The meeting with the Stormers is certainly daunting, but equally winnable.
On their day, the Stormers can beat anybody in the league, as back-to-back final appearances have shown, but their fast and loose style makes them quite unpredictable. In technical terms, they can occasionally be a bit flaky.
Connacht lost both meetings between the pair last season, including a semi-final in Cape Town, but were 19-17 winners in their previous game in Galway back in February 2022.
The Stormers are yet to win a game in Ireland since joining the URC, with four defeats and one draw, that stalemate coming at the RDS against Leinster in March of last year.
If that poor record continues in Galway today, it will give Connacht a fighting chance of saving their season, while they would then have two weeks to prepare for a shot at Leinster, who may be a bit vulnerable coming off the back of their Champions Cup final.
Whichever way their play-off battle ends, a much bigger one is only just starting.
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Watch Connacht v Stormers in the URC on Saturday from 4.30pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player, follow live score updates on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app and listen to updates on Saturday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1
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