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Plenty to be decided as URC reaches final round

All four Irish provinces have qualified for the playoffs
All four Irish provinces have qualified for the playoffs

Barring a miracle for Benetton, the top eight teams in the BKT United Rugby Championship are locked in, but ahead of the final round of games this weekend, there's still plenty of jockeying for position to be done.

With five points separating the Italians from eighth-place Sharks, and the South Africans 83 points better off in the points differential, the only outcome that would see those sides swapping places would be if Benetton picked off a huge win away to the Stormers, while also needing Munster to do a job on the Sharks.

Either of those results could be possible on a given day, but it's fanciful to think we could see both.

Complicating matters inside the top eight this weekend is the race for Heineken Champions Cup rugby.

With none of the four Welsh sides able to break into the top half, but a Champions Cup spot reserved for the Welsh Shield winners, it means whoever finishes eighth in the table this season will be missing out on a spot in the Champions Cup, unless they go on and win the URC.

The presence of Benetton and Scarlets in the Challenge Cup semi-finals next week also makes things interesting. Should either of those two go on and win the second-tier European title, then they'd snatch a Champions Cup qualification spot.

As such, should Connacht or Munster finish seventh in the table, their supporters will be praying for Toulon or Glasgow to lift the Challenge Cup trophy in Dublin next month.

Leinster have no such worries though. With first place long secure, Leo Cullen's side have more of a focus on next week's Champions Cup semi-final against Toulouse than they will likely have on this weekend's game against the Bulls in Pretoria.

The final round of the URC regular season is more of a scouting mission for the league leaders, who will be welcoming one of the Sharks, Bulls or Connacht to the Aviva Stadium in the quarter-finals.

The Sharks have to beat Munster in Durban if they're to avoid a trip to Dublin in two weeks time, but even then they will be relying on one - or both - of the Bulls and Connacht (v Glasgow) to slip up.

Munster and Connacht have the most gain this weekend, and conversely, most to lose.

For Munster, the outstanding win against the Stormers leaves them looking healthier than expected heading into the final round of games, and while they're back at the scene of their Champions Cup drubbing against the Sharks from three weeks ago, Graham Rowntree's side will be returning to King's Park rejuvenated and with a point to prove.

A win this weekend will see Munster finish fifth and more than likely see them travel to Scotstoun to take on Glasgow in the quarter finals, and guaranteeing Champions Cup qualification, while even a losing bonus-point would be enough to finish sixth at worst.

There is a scenario where Munster could drop to seventh in the table, but for that to happen they would need to lose by more than seven points to the Sharks, with Connacht beating Glasgow away, and the Bulls getting a bonus-point win at home versus Leinster.

Fifth is the magic spot right now, and they have their fate in their own hands, but there's a case to be made that some fans may prefer to finish seventh than sixth.

Will Ulster likely to beat the Stormers to second place, whoever finishes sixth in the table will probably be away to the defending champions in the quarter-final. For Munster, that would mean a third arduous trip to South Africa in the space of six weeks, but the consolation of being almost certain of Champions Cup qualification.

On the other side of the scales, seventh place in the table would give them a nervous few weeks ahead to see if they'd secured Champions Cup rugby, but a shorter trip up the road to face Ulster in the quarters.

A Twitter poll from earlier today suggests the Munster fans will gladly head back to South Africa if it meant more certainty around their Champions Cup qualification.

Having lost three in a row to start the season, and three of their first four games, the prospect of Connacht reaching the playoffs back in October seemed slim, but not only have they secured knockout ruby with a game to spare, they've given themselves a real shot at holding on for Champions Cup rugby as well.

Similar to Munster, Andy Friend's side have their fate in their own hands. win away to Glasgow will ensure they finish no lower than sixth, which realistically should be enough to get them back into the top table of European rugby next season.

Their chances of beating Glasgow are hard to quantify right now.

The Scottish side have been in electric form lately and deservingly booked a home quarter-final off the back of four wins in a row.

But with Franco Smith's side unlikely to get any higher than fourth, and a Challenge Cup semi-final next week away to the Scarlets, there may be the temptation for the Warriors to rest some players, and if that happens it would give Connacht a great chance of finishing the regular season with a seventh win in a row in the URC.

Connacht targeting Champions Cup spot in Glasgow

There's a wide variety of outcomes for Connacht, who could finish anywhere from fifth to eight in the table, but with the western province in the Saturday 7.35pm slot, they will at the very least know what they need to do by the time they kick off in Scotland.

Domestic rivalries will be parked by the Connacht fans on Saturday afternoon; wins for Leinster and Munster against the Bulls and Sharks could even see Connacht's own game rendered a dead rubber, and see them locked into sixth place.

First up on the final weekend is Ulster though, and Dan McFarland's side know a win of any kind against 12th-place Edinburgh will ensure they finish second in the table, and given them a home quarter-final, as well as home advantage in the semis should they get there.

And if they wrap that up as expected on Friday night, the province can put their feet up and watch everything else play out over the weekend.

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