The women’s draw at the Australian Open promises be a fascinating competition, with the main story undoubtedly whether Serena Williams can bounce back after her shock semi-final defeat in the US Open last September, which prevented her from winning the Grand Slam.
She has not completed a full match since that event, citing exhaustion and a knee injury for not playing for the remainder of 2015, while she withdrew after a set in her only outing in 2016 in the Hopman Cup.
If any other player had not played a full match in over four months, they would not be considered a contender for the title, yet such has been Williams’ dominance of the sport over the last few years she begins the tournament as favourite.
When she is on form no other player can cope with the power of her game. The American is also a terrific competitor who is often at her best in the face of adversity. In 2007, she came to Melbourne out of shape and unseeded after barely playing in the previous two seasons, yet claimed the title.
It is unexpected defeats, more than high-profile exits, which seem to trip Williams up. Should she gain form and momentum in the early rounds, she will be hard to stop and she has never lost a final in Melbourne. Despite this, I believe she will come up short in her attempt to win a seventh Australian Open.
Serena is not the only player suffering from injury problems going into the tournament. Five of the top six players in the world - Williams, Simona Halep, Garbine Muguruza, Maria Sharapova and Petra Kvitova - were all forced to withdraw from tournaments in recent weeks, although it is believed all will be fit to compete in Melbourne.
Victoria Azarenka is in a great position entering the tournament. The former world number one ended a two-and-a-half-year injury-marred title drought when she won in Brisbane last week, dropping only 17 games in total. She appears to be coming close to the form that brought her back-to-back Australian Open titles in 2013. Her service pace has increased and her groundstrokes have increasing power and precision.
Having said that, she has a poor record against Williams, and her three victories against the American have been on hard court. Williams overcame Azarenka in three sets in their three meetings in 2015, but the Belarusian could capitalize on the world number one’s injury problems.
Simona Halep is the second seed and, given the problems of so many of her fellow competitors, this may be an ideal opportunity for the Romanian to capture her first Grand Slam, should she be fully fit after withdrawing in Brisbane with a leg injury last week.
Her aggressive game suits hard courts and one feels it is just a matter of time before the world number two wins a Slam. Her new coach is Darren Cahill, who resurrected the career of Andre Agassi and also guided Lleyton Hewitt to world number one, so it will be fascinating to follow her progress.
No tennis for 2 days but working hard to be ready for Sydney and/or Melbourne. Fingers crossed 😁 pic.twitter.com/Edv6VMKEem
— Simona Halep (@Simona_Halep) January 6, 2016
Maria Sharapova comes into the tournament having not played in 2016 after withdrawing in Brisbane and she experienced an injury-marred second half of 2015, including missing The US Open with a leg strain. The Russian would also have little chance should she run into Williams.
She has not beaten the American since 2004, losing on 17 straight occasions. She is a terrific competitor, but not a potential champion this year.
Petra Kvitova is another player who comes into the tournament with injury problems, having pulled out of recent events in Shenzhen and Sydney with a stomach virus. She possesses strong groundstrokes and a big lefty serve and should really have claimed more titles thus far in her career. However, her best ever run at Melbourne Park was a semi-final appearance in 2012 and she has only made it past the third round on one other occasion, while she has also previously suffered in the heat and humidity of Melbourne.
Although ranked third in the world, Wimbledon finalist Garbine Muguruza is only considered as an outsider for the tournament. She is a hugely promising player who had a breakthrough year last season, but she has never got past the last 16 in Melbourne in three appearances and had to retire from a second-round match in Brisbane last week with a foot injury.
Another player who made a breakthrough in 2014, and perhaps the most promising of the new generation, is Switzerland’s Belinda Benic. Ranked 14 in the world and still only 18, she has already beaten Serena Williams in the semi-finals of Toronto on a hard court in August.
Fellow 18-year-olds, Ana Konjuh, Jelena Ostapenko and Daria Kasatkina will be hoping to build upon recent promising performances.
Agnieska Radwanska warmed up for Melbourne by winning in Shenzhen, and with the top players struggling with injuries, the crafty Pole could be a dark horse for the title and will be seeded fourth after her title win in China.
2013 semi-finalist Sloane Stephens showed a return to form when winning in Auckland last week, while Eugenie Bouchard, Ana Ivanovic and Caroline Wozniacki will all be hoping to improve on disappointing 2014 seasons.
Although it is a brave or some might say foolish move to back against Serena, my tip for the title is for Victoria Azarenka to claim a third Australian Open.
