The first Grand Slam of the season begins this Sunday night in Melbourne when the Australian Open commences.
This tournament is often the hardest to predict as it is hard to gauge form and fitness, while the excessively warm conditions can make it a battle of physical strength as much as tennis ability.
However, one man is dominating men’s tennis to such an extent that it is hard to see past Novak Djokovic emerging as champion.
The Serbian was relentless in his domination of the sport in 2015, winning three of the four Grand Slams, 82 of his 88 matches and reaching the final of 15 of the 16 events he played.
The world number one has also won the Australian Open in four of the last five years.
He has started 2016 in a similar manner, thrashing Rafa Nadal 6-1, 6-2 in the final of Doha last Saturday night in a performance Nadal described as ‘perfect’.
So who can stop Djokovic?
Andy Murray and Roger Federer would appear to be the most likely winners, should Djokovic slip up.
Their best hope of winning is if the world number one loses against another player, as neither seems capable of beating him over a five-set battle.
Murray has lost six of their last seven encounters while, although Federer beat Djokovic three times last season, all were in best-of-three-set matches and he lost to the Serbian in the finals of Wimbledon, the US Open and the ATP World Tour Finals in London.
Andy Murray has stated that his main goal for 2016 is to win the Australian Open.
In the Open era, no player, male or female, has featured in more finals of a Grand Slam tournament without winning than Murray has managed in Australia, where he has lost four finals.
Hard courts are his favourite surface and he won four of the seven competitions he entered last year.
He finished the year on a high, almost single-handedly carrying Britain to Davis Cup success, and has Amelie Mauresmo back as his principal coach.
He is in the best position, along with Federer, to end his Australian Open heartache should Djokovic slip up.
One might imagine Federer has a great chance of winning the tournament as he beat Djokovic three times on hard courts last year. However, in recent years he has failed to beat the Serbian in recent Grand Slams, losing the last two finals to him. He has, however, beaten Murray in their last five encounters.
It has been five years since Federer made the final of the Australian Open and over three years since he last won a Grand Slam. The fact that he lost in the third round to Andreas Seppi last year suggests that his diminished physical capacities are perhaps most severely exposed in the intense heat of the Melbourne sun. He also lost in the final in Brisbane to Milos Raonic last week. It will be fascinating to follow his progress under his new coach Ivan Ljubicic, who replaced Stefan Edberg at the end of last season.
On my way to Melbourne 🚂💨😀 pic.twitter.com/yYpRh1zfPa
— Roger Federer (@rogerfederer) January 12, 2016
Rafa Nadal and Stan Wawrinka are two previous champions who will believe they have a chance of triumphing in Flinders Park.
Nadal had his worst year on tour in 2015 as he suffered from injury, loss of form and loss of confidence, but he appears to be on the comeback trail, performing well at the ATP World Finals in London. He has started 2016 positively, defeating Milos Raonic to win in Mubadala and he put in some impressive performances before his one-sided defeat to Djokovic in Doha. A semi-final appearance is the best the man from Majorca can expect.
Wawrinka is the one player Dkokovic may hope to avoid, having lost to the Swiss player in the French Open final last year and in the Australian Open in 2014. The 30-year-old beat Djokovic, Berdych and Nadal when winning his first Grand Slam title in Melbourne in 2014. He has the power game to match Djokovic’s, but lacks consistency and could just as easily lose in the opening rounds. Against that, he has had a good start to the season, winning in Chennai last week.
Outsiders include Milos Raonic, Thomas Berdych, Kei Nishikori or perhaps even Australian bad boy Nick Kyrgios, who beat Murray in the Hopman Cup two weeks ago.
Raonic had an impressive tournament victory in Brisbane, beating Federer in the final with a display of big serving and heavy groundstrokes. He also reached the final of Mubadal, demonstrating that he is a player in form.
Berdych has reached the semi-finals at Melbourne for the last two years but appears to lack the consistency required to win a Grand Slam, despite having the talent.
The same accusation can be made about Kei Nishikori, who also appears to have fitness problems at Grand Slams, while David Ferrer has the consistency to go far but lacks the necessary power to triumph.
Home hero Lleyton Hewitt will have the full backing of his country as he competes in his last ever professional tournament.
Despite the above players’ claims, the safe money is on Novak Djokovic to win an 11th Grand Slam as he chases Federer’s record of 17 majors.
