The longest stretch between any two Grand Slams is almost at an end.
In just a few days, Court Philippe Chatrier will once again buzz with the excitement that surrounds the largest and most famed clay-court tournament in the world, the French Open.
The men’s competition should prove to be as exciting as always with the burning question being whether Novak Djokovic can break Rafa Nadal’s dominance at Roland Garros and become one of only eight men to complete a career Grand Slam.
Andy Murray, who won his first ever clay court titles this year, including comfortably beating Nadal in the final in Madrid, will consider himself a real contender while Roger Federer, playing in an amazing 62nd consecutive Grand Slam, will hope to continue his recent good form which included reaching the final in Rome last week.
Unlikely outside challenges could come from Kei Nishikori, Thomas Berdych, Stan Wawrinka or David Ferrer.
Novak Djokovic is the clear favourite to win the title. He’s playing some of the best tennis of his career, having already won the Australian Open this year and four of the five Masters titles, and is currently on a 22-match unbeaten streak. At times, the greatest returner ever appears to be unbeatable.
He is the best player from the baseline by some distance at present with Andy Murray the only player who comes close. He has beaten all his main rivals comfortably this year on clay with the exception of Murray, who he has beaten the last seven times they played including in the Australian Open Final in January.
Given the facts above, who can stop Djokovic winning the tournament? The leading contender is of course, the greatest clay court player of all time, Nadal. He has won the competition nine of the ten times he has participated dating back to his debut in 2005 – winning 66 of 67 matches.
In Djokovic's ten previous appearances at Roland Garros, his title hopes have been ended by Nadal six times, including the past three years in a row when the Serb has been playing his best tennis. The Spaniard, however, is in a very poor run of form and comes into the competition having not won a clay court tournament this season, the first time that has happened since his debut season in 2004.
His groundstrokes have lacked depth and consistency and he appears a step slower and very defensive on the court. The best-of-five set format should help him considerably and if Nadal can come through the early rounds, he may rediscover his clay-court dominance and regain his confidence.
However, he will only have a seeding of seven and I cannot see him beating Djokovic and he may even falter at an earlier stage. A brave prediction I know!
Andy Murray is third favourite for the tournament and is enjoying his finest clay court season yet, having won his first tournaments on the surface in Munich and Madrid.
It is surprising that it has taken Murray this long as he is well used to clay, which he has played on since moving to Barcelona at age 15. Murray’s fitness has let him down in the past and he needs to avoid lengthy matches early in the tournament to conserve energy levels for the later stages.
He has a terrific baseline game and his sometimes weak second serve improved significantly in Madrid, winning 80% of points on his second serve in the final. The Scotsman will go far in the tournament but I do not expect him to add to his to his Grand Slam wins.
The great Roger Federer has experienced a renaissance in his career in the last 18 months and is one of only two players to beat Djokovic this year, which he did in the finals of Dubai. He also reached the final in Rome playing some terrific tennis beating Berdych and Wawrinka after early losses in Monte Carlo and Madrid.
However, he does not have the game to beat Nadal or Djokovic on clay. Federer must be so relieved he won that elusive French Open title in 2009 – it would have been a travesty if arguably the greatest player of all time had not completed a career Grand Slam.
So what of the other contenders? Nishikori’s improvement in the last year has been significant, reaching the final of the US Open last year and winning on clay in Barcelona this year. However, recent defeats to Murray and Djokovic show that he is not yet ready to win this tournament.
Berdych has the talent but has not yet shown the ability to back up an impressive victory with another in the following round.
Wawrinka looked set to become a real contender for major titles when he won the Australian Open last year but has not pushed on and again suffers from inconsistency.
This was highlighted last week in Rome when he beat Nadal before losing to Federer in straight sets. Ferrer’s main problem is that he struggles against top-level opposition while Milos Raonic and Marin Cilic have fitness issues.
Richard Gasquet, Grigor Dimitrov and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga have poor recent records against top ten opponents and again it is difficult to see any making a big impact at Roland Garros.
The prediction from this corner is that Djokovic will become the first man since Jim Courier in 1992 to win the Australian and French Open in the same year.
