After 12 games the table is giving us the sort of tease that keeps a league interesting. Shamrock Rovers sit top, two points clear of St Patrick's Athletic, with Bohemians and Dundalk not too far off the pace if you glance at just the numbers.
Numbers in April can lie and deceive. What matters now is not just who is within touching distance, but who looks capable of living with the champions over the long slog of a Premier Division season.
Right now, for me, that list is very short. Shamrock Rovers are top after beating Bohemians last Friday, while St Pat’s kept the pressure on with a win away to Drogheda.
Let’s start with Derry City. Pre-season there was real expectation around them, fuelled by spending, squad depth and the sort of talk that always follows a winter of ambition.
Derry’s return so far has been nowhere near the level required of real contenders. Yes, they won at Shelbourne last weekend, but that does not suddenly wipe away a body of work that has lacked consistency and authority. For me, they are not in the title race. They are already playing catch-up in both results and credibility.
Shelbourne fall into a similar category, maybe an even more disappointing one given the noise around their recruitment and the fascination with the Jamestown Analytics angle. There was real intrigue and promise.
But there has not been nearly enough substance. Three straight league defeats is the sort of run that turns title aspirations into a conversation about damage limitation.
Sitting well off Rovers already, Europe now feels like the realistic target rather than anything loftier. And there’s no disgrace in that, only disappointment when weighed against what many thought they might become.
Dundalk, on the other hand, have been a breath of fresh air. Promoted sides are supposed to arrive with caution. Dundalk have arrived with a bit of swagger.
Their pressing has been brave, their approach is very front-footed and their games have had a proper energy to them. They have been one of the most enjoyable watches in the division, and that alone deserves credit.
Five wins and three draws in their last eight games has them sitting four points off top, which is a tremendous return for a club back in the division.
But title race? Not yet. Their season reminds me of those Kevin Doherty Drogheda teams that squeezed every last drop from the group and overachieved when unexpected.
A mid-table finish from here would still represent an excellent season.
Bohemians gave themselves a chance of being taken seriously with that early burst of five straight wins. That sort of run gets people talking and rightly so. But no wins in six after that is a disappointment for them.
They are still only five points off Rovers and their performance in Tallaght last Friday had enough in it to show they can compete, but their lack of goals remains an issue.
That is often the difference between a side that can make the top four and a side that can actually go after a title. Their next run, starting with St Pat's and then Derry and Shelbourne, feels huge already.
Not for the title, in my eyes, but for defining the level of their season.
Which brings us to St Pat’s, the only side I see as genuine challengers.
That might sound strange when Rovers have already beaten them twice this season, including a 2-0 win in Tallaght in February and a 1-0 win in Inchicore earlier this month.
Those results matter. Big-game evidence matters. And it is fair to say Pat’s have underwhelmed in those two matches. But outside of those games, there have been enough flashes of quality to suggest they can still make this uncomfortable for the champions.
The key for Pat’s is obvious. Keep their best players fit, keep collecting points, and make sure Rovers are still within range by the time the season begins to twist.
They have the advantage of not having European qualifiers cluttering their summer. That matters.
It matters in freshness, in preparation time and in avoiding the emotional drain that Europe can bring, even when it is enjoyable.
Rovers, by contrast, look exactly like a side that knows how to manage a title defence. They look comfortable. They look patient. Young players are contributing, experienced players are setting the tone, and there is no sense of panic in how they go about things.
That’s usually a clear sign of champions.
So, do we have a title race?
Yes, but only just.
We don’t have a wide open one. We do not have four or five clubs capable of winning it.
We have Shamrock Rovers, who look like the best team and are acting like the best team, and we have St Pat’s, who are the one side with enough quality and enough opportunity to make them sweat.
Everyone else, for different reasons, feel a level below.
If Pat’s can stay healthy and stay close, this season still has jeopardy. If they can’t, Rovers will disappear into the distance, and we’ll stop calling it a race at all.
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