Not for the first time, my lack of foresight and ill judgement prove that I haven't got a clue.
When you consider that my pre-season prediction was that Dundalk would really struggle on their return to the SSE Airtricity Men's Premier Division, I count my blessings that I’m not a man that’s fond of a gamble.
Ten league games in, they have lost only once, and that sole defeat came away to St Pat’s in Inchicore - a ground where Pat’s have been setting the standard with the best home form in the division and where better sides than this Dundalk group will come unstuck before the season is out.
There is no shame in leaving Inchicore with a defeat, especially considering it came on the back of the first Friday/Monday turnaround of the season, the sort of scheduling that can expose the depth and physical resilience of any squad, never mind one newly promoted and still finding its level.
What has been impressive is everything that has happened since. Dundalk responded with conviction, not caution.
Four wins from their next six games including beating Shelbourne in Tolka Park in a mad five-goal game and then followed it by beating St Pat’s 2-0 at Oriel.
That’s not the profile of a side just trying to survive. That’s a team with the belief it belongs.
It’s also hard to believe that they face Derry City at home tonight and, on current form, it is difficult to see Derry leaving Oriel Park with all three points.
Dundalk go into the game sitting fourth with 17 points from 10 matches. Derry, by contrast, have taken 10 points from their first 10 and are in the middle of a poor spell, with their winless run stretching to six games after defeats to Galway and draws with Sligo and Drogheda.
Oriel Park has a bit of life about it again, and right now Dundalk look the side with greater clarity and greater momentum.
One of my biggest concerns for last season's First Division winners early in the season was always about keeping key players fit. They recruited reasonably well and, sensibly enough, leaned into experience through the spine of the team.
My thinking at the time was simple: lose too many of those players and the whole thing could wobble badly, and results would suffer.
Instead, they have already been put to the test and have dealt with the adversity just fine.
Conor Kearns is out for the season, a serious blow by any measure. Rob Cornwall has suffered from injury, while Keith Buckley, Danny Mullen and others have had spells out or have been doubts, yet the results have remained strong, and the level of performance has not fallen off a cliff.
That says a lot about the dressing room and even more about the coaching.
The bravery in how Ciarán Kilduff (above) goes about games is, without doubt, the most impressive part of all of this.
Dundalk attack.
In a football climate where so much of the conversation revolves around back fives, territory, long throws, set-pieces and not making mistakes, there is something refreshing about a side that genuinely tries to win matches.
Not nick them. Win them.
They press with intent, they commit bodies forward and they look to play on the front foot whenever the game allows it. It is an approach that has made them one of the more enjoyable sides in the division to watch, and that matters.
Football is still meant to stir something in you. This Dundalk side are doing that.
Daryl Horgan and Eoin Kenny are central to so much of their attacking threat. Horgan, in particular, with his experience, deliveries and sheer professionalism, I’m sure he is having a huge effect on the young players around him.
Then up top, young Gbemi Arubi is leading the line so well. He gives them athleticism, a direct threat, a willingness to turn defenders towards their own goal and has exceptional hold-up play. Crucially, he now looks to have found a goalscoring edge to go with those attributes.
When you add in the adaptability they have shown and the confidence gathered from taking points off top sides, this no longer feels like a nice early-season story. It feels more substantial than that.
So yes, I was wrong. Very wrong. And in this instance, I’m perfectly happy to own it.
I thought Dundalk’s return to the Premier Division would be a slog. I thought injuries might undo them. I thought the jump in level would leave them clinging on.
Instead, 10 games in and Kilduff has produced a team that is resilient, brave, adaptable, and easy on the eye.
Newly promoted sides usually arrive with caution. Dundalk have arrived with ambition. Long may that continue.
The league is better for it.
And for those of us who haven’t got a clue, a bit of humble pie is probably no harm at all.
