Eight of the 10 Premier Division teams still have something to play for on the final day of the season.
Shamrock Rovers have now sealed the title after their 1-0 win over Galway United on Wednesday night, while Cork City were relegated at the start of the month.
In what is proving to be a remarkably tight finish, the final possible European spot and the relegation play-off are too close to call.
Three sides are level on points in fourth spot, with another trio tied for ninth place.
Both issues are set to go down to the closing day of the season.
There is one more side plot. Both Derry and Shelbourne have booked their spot in the Conference League qualifiers next year from results over the weekend.
They still have a chance of a Europa League spot instead. Let’s look at what is on offer and what each side needs.
2nd place – Europa League qualifying place?
It’s a live scenario that the runners-up position could bring a Europa League qualification place instead of the Conference League.
If Shamrock Rovers win the FAI Cup, then the Europa spot that comes with it moves to the league due to the Hoops securing the Champions League through their title win.
The impressive results for Irish sides in European action has granted the league one Europa spot.
The major benefit is losing a Europa League tie allows entry in the Conference League, offering two chances to make a league phase.
In terms of prize money, it’s worth a minimum €700,000 compared to €350,000 for the Conference.
Derry City will secure second place with a win or by matching Shelbourne’s result against St Patrick’s Athletic.
The two sides have a similar goal difference, so Shels could overhaul Derry with a two-goal victory if the Candystripes only draw in Turner’s Cross.
There is no major pressure on Derry or Shels, they've both qualified for the Conference, but it would be a major bonus to enter the Europa League.
4th place - Conference League qualifying place?
Again all is dependent on the FAI Cup final. St Patrick’s Athletic, Bohemians and Drogheda United are all in the mix to finish fourth. It might count for little, but if the Hoops claim a double then it will provide a Conference League qualifying place.
All three sides dropped points in their games over the weekend, from winning positions.
The biggest collapse was from Bohs, letting a two-goal lead slip against Shels, which led to angry scenes in the stands at Dalymount Park.
The intrigue around the race for fourth is that two of the teams battling it out will meet when the Gypsies travel to Drogheda.
St Pat’s would have felt dejected with their home draw last Friday and a feeling their chance may have gone, yet they’ve ended up holding fourth spot going into the final day.
The Saints meet Shels (who still have that Europa carrot still on offer) and know three points should be enough. They hold a four-goal advantage over Bohs and seven on Drogheda.
To keep it simple:
- St Pat’s will finish fourth with a win or if the two matches end in a draw
- Drogheda or Bohemians will finish fourth if they win and St Pat’s fail to do so.
- Bohemians will finish fourth in they draw and St Pat’s lose.
Whichever side prevails will then turn their attention to the Aviva Stadium on 9 November, cheering on Shamrock Rovers. It will all be irrelevant if Cork City spring an upset.
9th place – The relegation play-off
If you think the battle for fourth is going to be dramatic, let’s go up a level.
Cork City are relegated and the team which finishes above them will face a First Division side in the promotion/relegation play-off on 7 November.
Waterford, Sligo Rovers and Galway United are all in danger.
Two of the teams face off as Waterford welcome Galway. Sligo are heading to the champions Shamrock Rovers at a venue they have only won in once in the last decade.
It presents a scenario where if Sligo lose, both Waterford and Galway would be safe by drawing their fixture. There will be great intrigue should Sligo fall behind in Tallaght and in particular if trailing by a couple of goals.
The Blues have the worst goal difference as it stands but their six-goal lead on Sligo could be surmountable if John Russell’s side were to lose heavily to the Hoops.
The one guarantee is Waterford simply can’t afford to lose to Galway. That would ensure it’s the Blues banished to the play-off due to goal difference.
Should Waterford win, Sligo take a point and Galway lose, the latter will be in the play-off.
Sligo are hoping they are the beneficiaries from a changed Shamrock Rovers selection, but given the strength of Bradley’s squad, it’s still a big ask to get a result.
Matt Healy, Dylan Watts and Graham Burke were substitutes last Wednesday night and may start.
They proved the difference in coming off the bench against Galway. But then Bradley could rest even more key men knowing he has a Conference game in Athens and a FAI Cup final coming up the next week.
To run out the scenarios:
- Waterford FC will be in the play-off if they lose
- Sligo Rovers will be in the play-off if they lose and Waterford FC manage to at least draw
- Galway United will be in the play-off if they lose and Sligo Rovers avoid defeat
Nerves will be fraught in all three camps when Saturday afternoon comes.
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