Nine of the 10 Premier Division teams still have something to play for as the final week of the season begins.
Shamrock Rovers have still yet to seal the title, despite being seconds away from doing so three weeks ago.
Since then they've lost three matches in succession. Goal difference makes it practically impossible for Derry City to catch the Hoops.
Stephen Bradley’s side have two home matches against relegation-threatened sides to seal the deal this week.
In what is proving to be a remarkably tight finish, the final possible European spot and the relegation play-off are too close to call.
Three sides are level on points in fourth spot, with another trio tied for ninth place.
Both issues are set to go down to the closing moments of the year.
There is one more side plot. Both Derry and Shelbourne have booked their spot in the Conference League qualifiers next year from results over the weekend. They still have a chance of a Europa League spot instead. Let’s look at what is on offer and what each side needs.
1st place – The league title
It has been the case for all of October that Shamrock Rovers need just a single point to become champions.
They had hoped to have wrapped up the title long ago, with the intention to focus on their Conference League matches and the FAI Cup final.
A postponed fixture with Galway United has been sandwiched into the closing week of the year and gives Bradley’s men the chance to get the result they need.
Ideally this game would have been a chance to rest players ahead of the AEK Athens clash and the Aviva Stadium date on Sunday week.
Losing to Galway will bring the title race to the final day, again with just a point needed.
Sligo Rovers are the visitors to Tallaght for the finale. Even if the Bit O’ Red were to win, and Derry took maximum points in Cork, the 11-goal advantage over the Candystripes makes it a formality for Shamrock Rovers to become champions. They’ll be eager to clinch it on Wednesday and then rest players against Sligo.
2nd place – Europa League qualifying place?
It’s a live scenario that the runners-up position could bring a Europa League qualification place instead of the Conference League.
If Shamrock Rovers win the FAI Cup, then the Europa spot that comes with it moves to the league due to the Hoops securing the Champions League through their title win.
The impressive results for Irish sides in European action has granted the league one Europa spot.
The major benefit is losing a Europa League tie allows entry in the Conference League, offering two chances to make a league phase.
In terms of prize money, it’s worth a minimum €700,000 compared to €350,000 for the Conference.
Derry City will secure second place with a win or by matching Shelbourne’s result against St Patrick’s Athletic.
The two sides have a similar goal difference, so Shels could overhaul Derry with a two-goal victory if the Candystripes only draw in Turner’s Cross.
There is no major pressure on Derry or Shels, they've both qualified for the Conference, but it would be a major bonus to enter the Europa League.
4th place - Conference League qualifying place?
Again all is dependent on the FAI Cup final. St Patrick’s Athletic, Bohemians and Drogheda United are all in the mix to finish fourth. It might count for little, but if the Hoops claim a double then it will provide a Conference League qualifying place.
All three sides dropped points in their games over the weekend, from winning positions.
The biggest collapse was from Bohs, letting a two-goal lead slip against Shels, which led to angry scenes in the stands at Dalymount Park.
The intrigue around the race for fourth is that two of the teams battling it out will meet when the Gypsies travel to Drogheda.
St Pat’s would have felt dejected with their home draw last Friday and a feeling their chance may have gone, yet they’ve ended up holding fourth spot going into the final day.
The Saints meet Shels (who still have that Europa carrot still on offer) and know three points should be enough. They hold a four-goal advantage over Bohs and seven on Drogheda.
To keep it simple:
- St Pat’s will finish fourth with a win or if the two matches end in a draw
- Drogheda or Bohemians will finish fourth if they win and St Pat’s fail to do so.
- Bohemians will finish fourth in they draw and St Pat’s lose.
Simple eh? Whichever side prevails will then turn their attention to the Aviva Stadium on 9 November, cheering on Shamrock Rovers. It will all be irrelevant if Cork City spring an upset.
9th place – The relegation play-off
If you think the battle for fourth is going to be dramatic, let’s go up a level.
Cork City are relegated and the team which finishes above them will face a First Division side in the promotion/relegation play-off on 7 November.
Waterford, Sligo Rovers and Galway United are all in danger.
Before we get to the final matches this Saturday, the Tribesmen have a big advantage with an extra game to play on Wednesday against Shamrock Rovers.
There was no doubt John Caulfield wanted to see the league clinched before this game in the hope it would be a second-choice selection from the Hoops. That hasn’t happened.
United’s record against Shamrock Rovers is remarkably poor, winning just two matches in the last 44 clashes. Should they change the form book with a win, they will be safe due a vastly superior goal difference over Waterford in particular.
A draw would be huge as well, as if we look to the final day, they meet the Blues in the RSC. It’s Sligo heading to the champions-elect Shamrock Rovers at a venue they have only won in once in the last decade.
Should Galway lose on Wednesday, then all three teams will be level going into the final day.
It presents a scenario where if Sligo lose, both Waterford and Galway would be safe by drawing their fixture. There will be great intrigue should Sligo fall behind in Tallaght and in particular if trailing by a couple of goals.
The Blues have the worst goal difference as it stands but their six-goal lead on Sligo could be surmountable if John Russell’s side were to lose heavily to the Hoops.
The one guarantee is Waterford simply can’t afford to lose to Galway. That would ensure it’s the Blues banished to the play-off due to goal difference.
Should Waterford win, Sligo take a point and Galway lose both matches, the latter will be in the play-off.
Sligo are hoping they are the beneficiaries from a changed Shamrock Rovers selection, but given the strength of Bradley’s squad, it’s still a big ask to get a result.
There will be a much clearer picture after Wednesday’s game. Nerves will be fraught in all three camps on the night, before Saturday comes.
