The Republic of Ireland could still qualify for World Cup 2026, but what would need to happen for Heimir Hallgrimsson's men to book their ticket to North America next year?
The short answer is an unlikely series of events.
Dominik Szoboszlai's late equaliser in Portugal last night and Ireland's failure to score more than one goal in beating 10-man Armenia makes securing a play-off place an even taller order.
That's because teams with the same number of points will be separated by goal difference, then goals scored, and only then on their head-to-head record.
So if Hungary win in Armenia on 13 November, Ireland would need to at least draw with Portugal in Dublin.
But a draw would leave the Boys in Green needing to win in Budapest three days later by at least two goals, depending how many Hungary put past Armenia, which seems improbable.
An Armenian victory would narrow the goal-difference gap if Ireland drew but they would almost certainly still need to win in Budapest. That would also bring Armenia back into contention but their goal difference would leave them needing a result in Portugal on the final day.
Which leaves us with three more plausible scenarios in which Ireland can come second.
- Ireland draw with Portugal, Hungary fail to beat Armenia, Ireland win in Budapest.
- Ireland beat Portugal, Hungary draw with Armenia, Ireland draw in Budapest
- Ireland beat Portugal and win in Budapest
Speaking after last night's scrappy victory, Ireland captain Nathan Collins said: "Hungary away, the last game of the campaign, anything can happen. But Portugal at home, it’s going to be an exciting game.
"We need to win. I’m comfortable enough with big teams coming here. I think we can perform against them. I think the fans get excited for it. I think it’s a great challenge."
However, RTÉ Sport analyst Richie Sadlier observed: "Why in the name of God do we think this team will get something from the Portugal game? Why in the name of God would you think we could go away to Hungary and get something?".
"Why in the name of God would you think we could go away to Hungary and get something?" It's safe to say that Richie Sadlier isn't confident that Ireland can get the results they need in their next two games against Hungary and Portugal to keep their World Cup hopes alive. pic.twitter.com/EcwkYV8XLr
— RTÉ Sport (@RTEsport) October 14, 2025
Ireland were unimpressive against both Armenia and Hungary before their opponents had a man sent off so perhaps praying the Portuguese go down to 10 as well is our best shot.
Of course, if Ireland lose to the group leaders and Hungary win in Armenia then it's all settled ahead of the final round of matches, but Irish fans will hope to at least have the possibility of making a play-off when they head to Budapest.
