Ten years ago, the Conroy Report was delivered to look into the development of the League of Ireland.
Although there was much discussion around its findings at the time, it has largely been forgotten about by now.
Fair enough, fans prefer to remember goals, games, players and managers. But it is interesting to look at a key recommendation from it which was adopted: the 10-team Premier Division.
The decision was made to switch from 12 to 10 for the 2018 season and that has been stuck with ever since with no indication of a future change.
While it was not a new concept, the two previous moves to 10 were never given the chance to get off the ground, lasting only three seasons from 2002 to 2004 and 2009 to 2011.
The main aims were to have more games between the top clubs and to produce a tighter league. In terms of having a more exciting title race, it did not get off to a good start coming in during a phase of Dundalk dominance and their quick replacement by Shamrock Rovers.
The average gap from first to second from 2018 to 2023 was 13 points (if you double Shamrock Rovers lead for the 18-game 2020 season).
In the first three years the average gap from second to third was 17, though this dropped to 10 by the end of 2023. But 2024 brought the tightest league in a long time with the gap from first to eighth (21 points) closer than the gap from first to third (22 points) in the last 12-team season.
One season is too small of a sample size to predict a future of close title races but 2025 started along promising lines.
However, Shamrock Rovers' five-game winning streak through May took them ahead of the chasing pack. It was their longest winning sequence since May 2023 and something only two teams (Shelbourne in early 2024 and St Pat's in late 2024) have done since 2022.
That gives the Hoops a six-point lead heading into a pivotal weekend where they and the other three clubs in European competition (Shelbourne, St Pat’s and Drogheda United) clash twice in four days.
Friday sees St Pat’s v Drogheda and Shelbourne v Shamrock Rovers with St Pat’s v Shelbourne and Drogheda v Shamrock Rovers on Monday.
If results go the way of Stephen Bradley’s side, they could come away with a nine-point lead. But a worst-case scenario would mean no longer having any lead.
So, what is needed from the other three sides to mount a title challenge this weekend and beyond? Let's take a look.
Shelbourne – Defensive improvement
Shelbourne won last year’s league title on the back of the stingiest defence in the division.
Their 27 conceded goals were the fewest and only two teams had a better record since 2019.
But Shels goals conceded per game has gone up this year from 0.75 to 1.05. Their eight 1-0 wins was the most in 10 years with a total of 16 clean sheets. They are on pace for just half that in 2025 with four so far.
This drop in defensive performance has impacted their ability to hold on to leads. In 2024, they scored first 18 times and converted 89% of those into wins. That’s the highest percentage for a team scoring first at least that many times since Dundalk in 2019.
This year their conversion rate has dropped to 57%. It must be concerning that they have conceded within three minutes of scoring three times this year, something that didn’t happen once under eight minutes last year.
2024’s underlying numbers showed they exceeded expectations. Their 27 conceded came from an xG against of 41.48 (fifth best). They have returned much closer to the norm this year with 20 allowed from 21.5 xG against. Some of their other numbers have actually shown small improvements with shots against down and defensive duel success rate up.
They will hope the returns of some key parts of last year’s defense help as Sean Gannon, Paddy Barrett and Tyreke Wilson have a combined 19 starts in 2025.
St Pat’s – Away form
Part of Stephen Kenny’s revitalisation of St Pat’s after his appointment in May last year was having the best away record in the league from that point to the end of the season. That included a run of five straight wins to the finish line which was their longest winning sequence since their 2013 title-winning team.
That form has not continued into 2025 with their 10 points won away only leaving them ahead of basement dwellers Sligo Rovers and Cork City.
They did win their last game on the road at Sligo Rovers, but it is just one of three this year, all against the league’s bottom three.
The victory ended a run of four consecutive losses which was their worst in seven years. The Saints have been unable to replicate their home form where they have the league’s highest points per game (2.11) and their most since 2014.
Central to their inability to pick up away points has been scoring just eight goals, the fewest in the league.
Their rate is 0.80 per game. Eight of the last 18 teams who have had this low of a goal return over a full season were relegated. St Pat’s were last this low over a full season in 2009 when they ended seventh.
The issue has not been creating chances but taking them. At home, they outperform their xG (18 from 14.38) but away they have scored just eight from a 12.7 xG. Although they are taking 1.4 more shots per game at home, they are hitting the target better away so end up with the same number of shots on target per game - 4.4.
Nearly half of their overall goals have come from strikers Aidan Keena and Mason Melia (12 of 26) but just 25% of that duo’s goals have been away from Richmond Park. They will need to start carrying that form with them, as Keena did with his match-winning penalty in Sligo last time out.
Drogheda United – Big-match wins
Drogheda are in a different position to the others in that they are already outperforming their 2024 season.
They're just four points shy of last season’s total of 34. But despite their good run to end 2024 they didn’t get a win over either Shamrock Rovers, Shelbourne or St Pat’s. Galway United were the only other team they failed to beat.
This has largely continued into 2025 though with some improvement. They did get a win earlier in the season at Shelbourne but have failed to get any more since over last year’s top three and didn’t come away with any goals in the last three.
The issue is worst against Monday’s opponents Shamrock Rovers who they trail by six points. The Hoops have taken 15 points from games against the other European qualifiers compared to Drogheda’s seven. United have taken just one point from 21 available in the last seven meetings with Shamrock Rovers. The aggregate score from those fixtures is 18-2.
They will first need to correct the flow of goals against them. In the first nine this season, Drogheda allowed just 0.55 per game but in the 10 since that is well up to 1.4. This is especially key against a Shamrock Rovers side scoring 2.27 since Jack Byrne entered the starting lineup 11 games ago.
A lot has and can change in a league with a lot of big games packed into a short amount of time.
At the end of April, more than half the league had legitimate thoughts of a title contest. But Shamrock Rovers' impressive run through May has cast doubts on that.
With this weekend’s big double-header and Europe on the horizon, more swings could be seen.
Shamrock Rovers showed an ability to improve by leaning on proven stars like Byrne, Graham Burke, Arron Greene and Rory Gaffney. The teams below can all clearly make improvements, but time is quickly becoming of the essence if they are to be genuine title contenders.
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