The Nations League/World Cup qualification process is a tangled web of possibilities.
"It is a bonkers set-up," Carla Ward said ahead of her Republic of Ireland team's League B Group 2 showdown against Slovenia.
Katie McCabe, the skipper, was even more forthright: "It's nuts the set-up; the goals, points, relegation and promotion. All we can concentrate on is winning games and progressing performances game by game. I’ll let yous all do the maths and we focus on winning matches."
The simplest equation for the Girls in Green is this: beat the Slovenians by four goals or more this evening and they will top the group and gain promotion to League A, thus guaranteeing themselves a place in the 2027 World Cup qualification play-offs.
It's a nice carrot but a huge ask. Slovenia tore Ireland apart when they met in February. They're a very decent team, with good players and a savvy coach in Sasa Kolman.
They certainly won't be shaking in their boots on Leeside. Ireland laboured to a scarcely deserved 2-1 win against Turkey on Friday and haven't shown any real evidence this year that they're capable of throwing off the shackles and rattling up the goals against a side of Slovenia's pedigree.
By the time the World Cup qualifiers begin next spring, over half of this current squad will be in their 30s. They're crying out for a bit more pace and athleticism, though Ward remains confident things are beginning to gel.
"What I would say is we've utilised a lot more younger players in these last five games," she said.
"Jessie (Stapleton) is coming into the picture more, Tyler (Toland) is. I know they’ve been around a lot longer but they’re now starting to play a lot more minutes. 'Pattsy' (Anna Patten) is still young.
"You’ve got some good young blood coming through, but we’ve spoken about it quite a lot. There’s a lot of work to do between Under-19s and the first team. The gap is huge, absolutely massive. So there is that bit of work to do. That doesn’t happen overnight, it certainly doesn’t happen in a matter of months. That can take years."
In her first camp, Ward oversaw a behind-closed-doors game between a development squad and the Ireland Under-19s. It gave fringe players and youngsters a chance to stake a claim, but it hasn't happened since.
"I can't answer that," Ward replied when asked if those games would return. "I hope so. I think it’s something that is so important to what we do. It’s massively important for myself as well because it gives us an opportunity to look at fringe players and the younger players."
There's no sign of a long-mooted Under-23s team being establised bridging that gap between the SSE Airtricity Men's Premier Division is not going to get any easier.
It means players like Erin Healy really need to be success stories. The American-born attacker is in the squad for the first time and could offer something different in Ireland's hunt for goals.
Healy said last week she hoped to move to the WSL this summer after enjoying a really good campaign in the A-League with Adelaide United. Just a couple of days later, Adelaide announced the 24-year-old had been signed up for the 2025/26 campaign. It led to a lot of head scratching.
Ward is adamant Healy could still end up coming to England. Although she's halfway through a two-year deal with Adelaide, Healy has a clause in her contract that means she can talk to other clubs this summer if she wants to. Watch this space.
She didn't feature in Istanbul but is an unknown quantity on the international stage and could be a valuable wild card at some point at the Páirc.
There'll almost certainly be changes to the starting XI. Lucy Quinn has a bug and will be monitored, while Aoife Mannion is a doubt due to a slight quad issue. Mannion came off at half-time during the win in Turkey and was replaced by Caitlin Hayes, who slotted into centre-half alongside Jessie Stapleton. Anna Patten switched to right-back.
Ward is likely to go with that from the off this evening, possibly opting for Megan Campbell - armed with her famous throw - at left-back to push Katie McCabe higher up the wing.
Ruesha Littlejohn wasn't used the other night so might come into anchor midfield, allowing Denise O'Sullivan and Marissa Sheva (poor in Istanbul but still a Ward favourite) to link up with the forward line, which will surely be led by Kyra Carusa. The 29-year-old made a real impact when she came off the bench against the Turks, as did Emily Murphy, the Newcastle United forward who won the game with a smashing volley.
Ward has been bullish about this game. But the reality is Sovenia look far too good to crumble here. A cohesive Irish performance that shows the players are taking her messages on board and beginning to evolve is a realistic expectation. Another humbling and questions about Ireland's direction of travel will grow louder.
Predicted team: Courtney Brosnan; Anna Patten, Jessie Stapleton, Caitlin Hayes, Megan Campbell; Denise O'Sullivan (capt), Megan Connolly, Katie McCabe; Marissa Sheva, Kyra Carusa, Emily Murphy
Prediction: Republic of Ireland 2-1 Slovenia
Watch Republic of Ireland v Slovenia in the UEFA Women's Nations League on Tuesday from 5.30pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player. Follow a live blog on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app and listen to commentary on 2fm’s Game On.
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