Can Cork City survive in a thriving Premier Division?

Last month the FAI began seeking applicants to join a new third tier in Irish football's pyramid.

While it is likely to still be a couple of years away from becoming a reality, it will be interesting to see what impact this has on the game here.

For now, we can only speculate, but with 40 years of two tiers in the league, it is an interesting time to assess the impact of the First Division. This may be of particular relevance to last year’s winner of that league, Cork City, as they look to compete again in the top tier in 2025.

Last year’s two promoted teams, Galway United and Waterford, had two of the best seasons in recent memory for clubs returning to the top division. Both had realistic chances of European qualification for much of the campaign. Their combined points total of 97 was the most for any season where two clubs have come up and individually they were both in the top seven for the summer era:

This sets a very high bar for a Cork City side who suffered painful immediate demotion following their most recent promotion when they were beaten in a play-off by Waterford at the end of 2023 season. So how tough is the task they have?

Since the First Division was founded for the 1985-86 season it has introduced 16 new clubs to the league including the six for it’s first season. Only one of those 16 (Derry City) are currently in the Premier Division.

Just four others remain in the league (Bray Wanderers, Cobh Ramblers, Kerry and Wexford) with the initial 1985 entrants having the most longevity as only Newcastle United failed to last at least 23 years.

Despite this lack of success for teams entering the league via the First Division, it has had a significant impact on other clubs’ success. In 2007 Drogheda United won the Premier Division five years after a promotion from the First Division, with a FAI Cup victory along the way. Since then, several clubs had significant successful runs after a visit to the lower division.

In Shamrock Rovers fourth season after promotion, they won the first of back-to-back league titles in 2010. It was seven years for Sligo Rovers to do similar in 2012 though they had FAI Cup success in five and European qualification in their third season.

Dundalk’s golden age of success started with a 2014 league title and a runners-up position the year before just five years on from being a First Division side. They spent many of those successful seasons fending off Cork City who when they won the big one in 2017 were also six years on from promotion.

Most recently and most rapidly, Shelbourne won the 2024 League of Ireland in just their third effort back in the top-flight. It may be too early for Tim Clancy and his Cork City team to be thinking about that type of glory but perhaps some building blocks have been laid for success down the line.

First on the checklist for Clancy will be survival. That is something that has become somewhat tougher in the most recent decade with survival rate dropping from 73% to 65% but there has been a lot of variance from year to year.

There are several reasons why this Cork City outfit should feel optimistic that they can join 65% of teams in the last decade and survive.

Unlike last time when they arrived under a manager in Colin Healy without experience of doing the job at the higher level, they are now led by Tim Clancy who has succeeded before. Having took Drogheda United upwards in 2020, he led them to comfortable safety the next year.

Their points record of 1.22 per game was the second best for a promoted club between 2013 and 2023.

The Rebels also come into the Premier Division with a strike pairing that many other clubs in the league would envy in Ruairi Keating and Sean Maguire. Going down in 2023 with a scorer like Keating in the side was a rarity as it was just the second season in 16 that a team went down having a player score at least 13 league goals.

As for Maguire, he made an immediate impact with seven goals in his eight appearances after joining during last season. And although he will turn 31 during the upcoming season, experienced strikers have thrived in the league recently.

Last year’s joint-top scorers Padraig Amond and Patrick Hoban were 36 and 33 respectively. In 2023 Hoban was one goal from top of the charts with Chris Forrester just one goal back at 31. While a 34-year-old Eoin Doyle was second in the 2022 charts.

Crucial to Cork’s chances will be improving a bad away record that cost them in the 2020 and 2023 relegations. They went down in 2020 without a single away win. That is something only two other teams had done before them in the summer era. Although only half of the season’s games were played that year, their away points per game tally of 0.33 was among the eight worst since 2003 with only one team (Bray Wanderers 2006) surviving with a record that bad.

In 2023 they only managed two away wins, at also relegated UCD and seventh placed Drogheda. Between April and September inclusive they played 13 away games but only scored seven times. Their woes went back to September 2019 when they began a 21-game winless streak that lasted to June 2023.

They showed some good signs in 2024’s First Division, only losing on the road to Athlone Town and that form will need to translate to 2025’s higher level.

The opening night of this season will see Galway United visit. That means Sean Maguire’s first Premier Division game will be up against his old boss John Caulfield who will be managing his first top-flight game back at Turner’s Cross since his departure from the club.

It's all kicking off on Valentine's Day 👀#CCFC84 🇮🇹 pic.twitter.com/UuVWTEDGAU

— Cork City FC (@CorkCityFC) December 17, 2024

That may conjure memories of City’s glorious time when both were at the club but more valuable would be a first three points on the way to Premier Division survival this season.

After that, anything in this league is possible.