A recently overheard conversation on a train between a father and his young son about their favourite footballers brought a nice surprise. While the son started with the predictable Cristiano Ronaldo and Erling Haaland, he also included a mention for Bohemians now departed Jonathan Afolabi.
While there have obviously always been young fans of the League of Ireland, the ever-increasing crowds at domestic games in recent years shows that the league and its players are viewed with more esteem, especially among younger fans. A league that has had a slightly niche following, is now much trendier.
But what trends have been happening on the pitch in recent years and what indicators do they give us for the 2024 season?
There has been increases in goals scored, match competitiveness and the age profile of players. These can all help the appeal of the league.
Goals
The number of goals scored per game has often gone through different phases. From the last season of winter football in 2003 until 2009 the league averaged 2.32 goals per game and was never above 2.41 in a single season. But from 2010 to 2018 the average went up to 2.70 and never dropped below 2.58. Fuelled by Dundalk having between 2014 and 2018 the five best goals per games of any team over a full season since 1987, the 2010s had comfortably more goals that the 90s or 00s.
2019 and 2020 brought big decreases in goals scored but the last three years have seen the average in the Men's Premier Division trend upwards.
That change is also seen in fewer scoreless draws of which there has been an average of 11 in the last three years, fewer than the 15 from 2010 to 2018. There was 21 in 2019 and 10 in 2020's half-season.
One reason goal-scoring is on the up is that more goals are being scored in the last 15 minutes of games. 2023 had 119 late goals, only once in the past decade has that number been higher – 131 in 2017. Proportionally this is over one quarter of all goals scored for the only season in that time.
An explanation for extra late scoring is the increasing use of substitutes in the league. Since the return of football after the COVID-19 stoppage in 2020, clubs have been allowed to use five subs. This has led to the number of subs being used increasing each year up to its high point of 1390 in 2023, an average of 7.7 per game.
These players contributed a remarkable 86 goals last season, easily the most ever surpassing 64 in 2017 when the season had 18 more games. Having strong options to change a game from the bench, as St Pat's did, a league most 17 times in 2023, is becoming increasingly important.
The reverse in goal-scoring can be found in the Women's Premier Division. Every season bar one since the league was founded in 2011, there was an average of above four goals per game until 2020 when it dropped to 3.63. Since then, it has gone to 3.63, 3.39 and then 3.01 most recently.
Although we enjoy seeing more goals, this is largely a positive as it has come from more competitive games. More on that later.
Promoted teams survival
From 2009 to 2018, only three of the 15 clubs promoted to the Premier Division were relegated straight back down in their first year. 2018 was the first year of the reversion back to a 10-team top-flight and this had made survival more difficult. Of the eight teams promoted since, four made just a single season stay.
This may be concerning for Waterford and Galway United though they both have good track records. Waterford have survived after their last three promotions while Galway have done so after all four of their previous promotions for at least three years.
They also bring up an unusual advantage of having two of the three most experienced managers in this year's league. Waterford’s Keith Long is first on that list with 252 games managed and John Caulfield in third for Galway on 182.
More competitive Women's Premier Division
Peamount United regained the league title in 2023 by the biggest point gap (six) since Shelbourne won by eight in 2016. But their season’s journey was tougher than in years past. It is difficult to compare seasons due to differing number of games and teams but looking at their goal difference per game shows tighter margins of victory for league winners.
Comparing how Peamount got their wins shows that in 2019 and 2020 more than half of their wins were by three of more goals demonstrating that they were often not severely tested. But in their most recent victory, nearly half of their wins were by a solitary goal with less than a quarter by three or more.
While it is early to see any trends in the men's league like this, Shamrock Rovers won the league in 2023 with 2.0 points per game – the lowest since 2010 and second lowest since 2004. Across Dundalk’s five league titles between 2014 and 2019 they averaged 2.35. While the Hoops bettered that in the short 2020 season with 2.67 it dropped to 2.17 the following year and then 2.19 before another fall in the most recent season. It is worth monitoring if the bar for a league title win continues to be lowered.
Reduction in player age
The average age of a starting line-up in the Men’s Premier Division has dropped in five of the last seven years. This backs up a recent UEFA report which had the League of Ireland as Europe’s second youngest behind Lativia with 57% of playing minutes going to players under the age of 23 during the 2022 season.
While the presence of UCD in the Premier Division can exaggerate the figures due to their high emphasis on youth, there are many other reasons that can explain this. The changes since Brexit leading to more young Irish players staying at home longer, the increase in young players being loaned in from the UK and possibly the rise in younger managers (at the start of the season five were in their 30s and the other five in their 40s) who are more willing to give opportunities.
Whether clubs are willing to persist with this will be an interesting test as the results on the field show that the two oldest teams in first and second (though Shamrock Rovers were a full three years older than Derry) with the two most youthful teams in UCD and Cork City going down.
However, St Patrick's Athletic's Cup final success with four teenagers (Sam Curtis, Tommy Lonergan, Adam Murphy, and Mason Melia) all playing significant roles shows winning with kids is also possible.
The same case can be found in the Women’s Premier Division with average age declining in each of the last four years. While the bottom three teams in the table did have the youngest players, Peamount won the league with just the fifth-oldest squad while Shamrock Rovers were third with the fifth youngest.
