As last month's international window came to an end, Republic of Ireland manager Stephen Kenny admitted that any hopes of a backdoor play-off route to Euro 2024 was "more unlikely than likely".
That of course had nothing to do with the standings in a Group B from which France have already qualified automatically. The Netherlands, who are Ireland's final group opponents this Saturday, are in pole position to also progress to the finals in Germany.
Ireland, meanwhile, will be settling for fourth. But to repurpose an old Steve Staunton phrase and give it a different twist, the qualifying group is a case of 'third place, fourth place, whatever'. If it's not a top-two finish, placings below that are essentially meaningless in the grand scheme of things because ultimately, the most recent UEFA Nations League is the only arbiter to determine the fates of teams that require a play-off to get to next summer's Euros.
But sub-optimal results in that competition last year have left Ireland ranked 26th overall with an increasingly miniscule chance of sneaking into the play-offs, especially with other League B teams like Finland and Bosnia already guaranteed some of the few available play-off spots.
The Boys in Green are relying on an unlikely set of results in other groups for that pathway to open.
Wednesday night's 1-1 draw between Israel and Switzerland in Hungary would have been of interest to Irish supporters as Group I is one of the cards that needs to fall Ireland's way.
Switzerland have now gone top of that group and are on course to qualify automatically. For Ireland to have any chance of getting into the play-offs, both the Swiss and Israel would have to finish above Romania.
That's because Israel, a fellow League B side, are ranked 17th and above Kenny's side in the Nations League rankings and would currently require a play-off as things stand, whereas Romania are three spots below Ireland.
But if Israel were to finish second in Group I and qualify automatically along with the Swiss, it would free up an extra play-off spot for a lower-ranked team.
However, Israel are currently four points off the pace of the top two with only six points to play for. Crucially though, they face Romania this Saturday night and Ireland would need Romania to lose that fixture.
Should Romania draw or win that head-to-head, Israel would be consigned to the play-offs and it would end any lingering hopes for Ireland.
Even if Israel were to beat Romania on Saturday, to move into the top two, they would also need to better the Romanians' result in the final round of matches. Israel will be away against minnows Andorra and Romania host Switzerland next Tuesday.
The Swiss, meanwhile, can seal qualification before that round of games if they beat Kosovo in Basel this Saturday.
To recap, for Ireland to have any chance of a play-off, Switzerland must finish in the top two, while Israel need to pick up six points to no more than one for Romania, or four points if the Romanians lose both of their final fixtures.
However, a perfect set of results in Group I would not be enough for Ireland on its own as Norway would be the first beneficiaries if an extra play-off spot were to emerge because Erling Haaland and co are ranked 25th, one spot above the Irish in League B.
So an even more unlikely run of outcomes would also need to occur in Group J. The relevant nations to look out for in that pool are Slovakia and Iceland.
Slovakia, a League C side, are tantalisingly close to qualifying automatically behind Portugal with two games remaining.
The problem with that is that Iceland, who are ranked above Ireland in the Nations League, would then take up a play-off spot.
The margin for error in Group J is more stark than in Group I because for Ireland to have an opportunity, Iceland would have to go to Slovakia tonight and win and then do the same when they go to Lisbon to face Portugal on Sunday.
And in that scenario, Slovakia would also need to lose their final game in Bosnia which is also on Sunday.
That combination of results might not even be enough as Luxembourg, a recent bane of Kenny's Ireland, are lurking with intent to potentially nick second spot in Group J.
Ireland would have to hope that they get no more than four points in their matches against Bosnia (H) and Liechtenstein (A), whilst keeping fingers crossed that Iceland hold up their end of the bargain.
Ultimately though, the coup de grace could be delivered for Ireland by around 9.30pm tonight if Iceland fail to win in Bratislava.
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Watch Norway Under-21 vs Republic of Ireland Under-21 in Euro 2025 qualifying on Friday from 4.30pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player and follow a live blog on www.rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app
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Watch the Women's FAI Cup final, Athlone Town v Shelbourne, on Sunday from 2.15pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player. Follow a live blog on RTÉ.ie/Sport and the RTÉ News app and listen to live radio commentary on Sunday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1.
