There have been many unexpected results taking place throughout this Euro 2024 campaign, but they would have to get even stranger for Ireland to secure a place in the March play-offs.
Losing twice to the lower ranked Greece certainly falls into that category, however, there have been many more surprising results, and they are currently reflected in the group standings heading into the final international window.
While five of the groups are topped by teams that would be perennial qualifiers for the big tournaments, like France, England, Spain, Belgium and Portugal, the other five leaders are Turkey, Albania, Hungary, Slovenia and Romania.
Three of those teams are actually ranked lower than Ireland in the UEFA standings, which really highlights the ever-changing landscape of international football.
The general consensus going into the Euro 2024 qualifiers was that Ireland were well placed to take a play-off place on the basis that most of the 25 higher ranked sides would qualify automatically.
Now with two rounds of games remaining, Ireland are all-but eliminated ahead of the November games.
But not yet.
The Republic of Ireland has yet to turn yellow on the Wikipedia map of Europe and remains in the light blue, "Team may qualify" category.
As it stands, Ireland are sixth in League B in a race for the four play-off places and they need two groups to dramatically change to have any chance of making it.
In short, Israel would have to qualify automatically in place of Romania in Group I, which is not beyond the realms of possibility as they have four games remaining to close the five-point gap, while the two teams have still to face each other.
Group J is the other avenue for Ireland to navigate, however, in this case, they need Iceland to displace Slovakia and hope that Luxembourg drop points in at least one of their two remaining games.
Iceland are currently six points behind that second automatic place so they would have to beat Slovakia in Bratislava, before heading to Portugal to beat the group leaders, who look set for a perfect record, having won eight from eight with Liechtenstein next up.
At the same time, Iceland would need Slovakia to lose in Bosnia, and it would all be in vain if Luxembourg win their last two games.
So reality appears to have bitten Stephen Kenny, who admitted after the Gibraltar game that it was "more unlikely than likely" that his side would reach the play-offs.
However, the manager, buoyed by the 4-0 win in Faro, is plotting one big performance in an attempt to sign off from this campaign in style as they head to Amsterdam to take on the Netherlands in the final group game.
A game that is unlikely to have any impact on the group, unless the Dutch somehow drop points to Gibraltar in their final game, however, it will allow the manager to mastermind a big performance, which may give the FAI some food for thought ahead of their end-of-campaign assessment.
"It's still more unlikely than likely and I think regardless we have to go to Amsterdam and try and get a win if we can," said the manager, speaking to RTE Sport after the game.
"We've got to get organised, go there and put in a performance that gives ourselves a chance of getting a result."
And while qualification for the upcoming tournament is looking further and further away, the manager still emphasised the belief that he has in his young squad ahead of that trip to Amsterdam.
"Yeah, I do," said the manager, when asked if he still had the belief that the squad is good enough to qualify.
"We are stronger in some areas than others. Centre-half area is strong. We need to increase our pool in wide areas for sure and midfield players, the likes of Will Smallbone, and Evan Ferguson have a few caps under their belt. The other players, with maturity, will get better as well, more experience.
"There's no doubt we have talent. Obviously, the centre forward area has been an issue for Ireland for a little bit. Evan (Ferguson) bursting on the scene has been a breath of fresh air, it gives renewed hope as well, but you need competition.
"We need a pool of players, we blooded a lot with a view to that. We are still light in wide areas in terms of real depth, and I know it's been mentioned there hasn't been a real outstanding midfield creator, but you can't have everything, and I think we've got a lot of good players who have done well for us at different periods."
But when judgement day does come following the November friendly against New Zealand, when the FAI decide on the future direction of the national team, Kenny seems to concede that the double defeat to Greece may prove an influencing factor in his future.
"That's for another day, I'm still in the job," said Kenny, when asked if he felt the job has been harder than he expected.
"I'm going to Amsterdam, I'll manage against New Zealand and all of that can wait.
"Obviously, the Greek games. The fact we lost at home to Greece, I understand there is implications for that but at the same time, since the end of Covid – I know if I throw a stat people can throw another one back – but we've won as many as we have lost, we have won 11, lost 10 and drawn six in 27 games including friendlies.
"In the group, which is the most important thing, we lost both games to Greece, which has hurt us and I understand there are implications for that as well so we'll have to wait and see."
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