The Republic of Ireland's 2-1 loss to the Netherlands means our chances of qualifying for Euro 2024 are now in the hands of other countries.
A fourth defeat in five games makes finishing in the top two of Group B all but impossible and so coming through the play-offs is the only possible route for Stephen Kenny’s side to Germany.
Twenty of the 23 qualifiers (hosts Germany are automatically qualified) come via the 10 groups, with the final three places being decided courtesy of play-offs.
Those play-offs will be based on Nations League performances rather than where you finish in the qualifying group so Ireland could potentially come fourth behind France, the Netherlands and Greece and still make it.
What are the chances of that happening? The We Global Football odds and statistics website currently estimates it about 10% and though it's about as straightforward as a Pep Guardiola tactics Ted talk we’ll endeavour to explain.
The four group winners of Nations Leagues A, B and C are guaranteed play-off spots in their respective paths; (A): Spain, Croatia, Italy, Netherlands (B): Israel, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Scotland (C): Georgia, Greece, Turkey and Kazakhstan.
But some of those countries and most in League A will qualify automatically, opening up play-off spots for sides like Ireland, who ranked 10th in League B and 26th of 55 overall.
There were only seven teams in League D last time but winners Estonia are guaranteed a place in the A path if 13 or more of those 16 League A teams qualify automatically, which is currently the case. So if the the A play-offs were decided today they would be: Italy v Estonia and Poland v Wales.
Path B would be Israel v Iceland and Bosnia Herzegovina v Finland, and Path C Georgia v Greece and Kazakhstan v Luxembourg.
Ireland can only get into Path A or B and so need as many as possible of the teams ranked higher than us to qualify directly and free up play-off spots. Norway, who look unlikely to emerge from Group A, are one place ahead of us at the top of the waiting list, as it stands.
Italy have a game in hand on Ukraine in Group C and should still qualify directly (bringing Ukraine back into the play-offs and ensuring some League B teams go to Path A) but it looks tougher for Wales and Poland. Turkey are currently the only League C team guaranteed a play-off who are qualifying automatically, from Wales’ Group D, and as it stands are passing on their play-off spot to Luxembourg.
Wales catching the Turks would do Ireland a big favour by bringing that play-off spot back to League B, whereas Poland beating the Czechs to second in Group E would just mean they swap for the A path play-offs. Current surprise Group E leaders Albania are ranked below Ireland in Path B so it would help us if they dropped out of the top two altogether, likewise Romania, currently second ahead of Israel in a weak-looking Group I.
Bosnia and Herzegovina or Iceland overhauling League C Slovakia in Group J would also open up another Path B play-off place.
Movement that would count against Ireland would be Sweden beating Austria to second in Group F or Montenegro catching Hungary and Serbia in G. Group H contenders Slovenia and Finland are both ranked ahead of us in Path B so it doesn’t really matter which of them gets automatic qualification and which goes to the play-offs.
We won't have a clearer picture until the final rounds of games in November but taking a purely selfish perspective on the 14 qualifiers remaining this week, Ireland fans should be cheering for: Croatia (away to Armenia), Wales (home v Latvia), Bosnia (at Iceland), Liechtenstein (at Slovakia), Portugal (home v Luxembourg), Austria (away to Sweden) and Israel (home v Belarus).
If Ireland miss out on the play-offs, it would be for just the second time since their introduction and first failure since 2004.
Ireland featured in the very first edition, the 2-0 defeat to the Netherlands that ended Jack Charlton’s reign in 1995.
We also experienced heartbreak against Turkey in the Euro 2000 campaign and Slovakia for Euro 2020 but beat Estonia to reach Euro 2012 and Bosnia and Herzegovina for Euro 2016.
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