From goal shy to travel sick - Assessing Shamrock Rovers' title rivals

The final quarter of the SSE Airtricity Men's Premier Division season is upon us, and half of the league could still have a say in who emerges as champions. With just eight points between first and fifth, all is still to play for with European places also on the line.

The season returns from last week’s FAI Cup round with a double-double of six-point contests. This Friday Bohemians (fourth) play Derry City (third) while Shamrock Rovers (leaders) face Dundalk (fifth). A week later it will be Dundalk meeting Derry as well as Bohs going to take on Shamrock Rovers. The difference between taking six or zero points in the next seven days could define seasons.

Shamrock Rovers go into the final phase with the advantage of the experience of winning the last three titles, a four-point lead, the best goal difference and no distractions of cup football. Stephen Bradley will feel like his group knows what it takes to see it out from here.

But what about their rivals? What would it take for any of the other four top-half sides to usurp the Hoops’ four-in-a-row ambitions? Let’s looks at the key factors for each team.

Derry City

Although currently sitting third, Derry probably have the best chance of taking first place. A win in their game in hand, against a UCD team with only two wins all season, would place them just two points back. They can boast a win over Shamrock Rovers this season, something both Bohs and Pat’s can’t.

But to grab a league title they will need to provide a better answer to the question we posed in our season preview – can they score enough goals at home? So far, they have scored 10 fewer than Shamrock Rovers and eight fewer than each of Bohs, Dundalk and Pat’s.

The Candystripes have had a weakness in hitting the target both at home and away. Just 32.9% of their attempts work the goalkeeper which is the league’s third worst. All other top five sides manage at least 35.4%.

This has manifested in a difficult run of results and shooting which saw them fall from their position at the top of the table at the end of May. They went below their season average in the first five games where they dropped points with an increase in four of the last five games bringing better results.

They also rank just sixth in xG per shot, meaning a reason why they are not hitting the target enough could be that they are not creating good enough opportunities.

St. Patrick’s Athletic

The Saints are trying to become the first team to win the league while having an in-season managerial change since they had both Pat Dolan and Liam Buckley in 1998-99. But despite replacing Tim Clancy with Jon Daly in May, Pat’s have struggled to fix an ongoing problem – beating the teams around them.

In 2022, Pat’s took comfortably fewer points (nine) in games against the other sides in the top four – Shamrock Rovers (22), Derry City (16) and Dundalk (17). While there has been an improvement this year, they still trail those around them.

There has been some progress under Daly with wins at home to Dundalk and Derry but more may be required.

Their upcoming fixtures are against lower half teams, giving them a good chance of keeping their hopes alive until late in the season.

But their final three games are what will likely determine the success of their season: Bohemians (a), Shamrock Rovers (h) and Derry City (a). They will need to improve their record when the pressure grips tightest to get the points they will need from those games.

Bohemians

Declan Devine’s team took everyone by surprise coming out of the traps fast and holding a four-point lead after the May Day fixtures. But one of the pillars of their success was a strong away points tally with four more on the road than at Dalymount Park.

However, those results were built on the shaky foundations of five narrow wins, with three by a single-goal and in the two others only getting a second goal in stoppage time. In two of the wins, they had a lower xG than their opponents.

But starting with a draw away to UCD, they have gone on a run of eight without a win, losing three. UCD are the only team without an away win in that time. In the same time, they have five wins from eight at Dalymount Park with just one defeat.

The road record needs to change soon because, as ever, the key game will be against fierce rivals Shamrock Rovers. Their next away game comes at Tallaght Stadium next week in a venue where they have lost six out of seven with no wins.

A win this time could cut the gap to two points and swing their fortunes on the road in the opposite direction.

Dundalk

Sitting in fifth position with a gap of eight points makes a title charge a fainter hope for the Lilywhites. But a top three spot might be required to guarantee European qualification and that end of the table is where Dundalk will believe they should be competing.

But if they want to do so, they will need to improve how they perform at the top end of the pitch. Stephen O’Donnell’s team have the third-most possession and make the second-most passes into the final third. But things break down then. Dundalk have recorded the fourth-fewest touches in the opposition box and rank the same for shots taken.

Rather than improving, this lack of shots taken seems to be getting worse in recent weeks with their average in the last four games down to seven from a season average of 10.

They managed to defeat Shamrock Rovers by scoring with their only shots on target of the game but were out-shot by their opponents 21-14 in dropping points against Bohs and Shels.

With a striker like Patrick Hoban outperforming his xG 10 vs 8.05, they need to ensure he has adequate service to guide them up the table.

The next fortnight should provide clarity on who can realistically contend for a league title. But with so many games to come between these evenly-matched teams, there will be plenty of opportunities for all to have a big say in how the league and European places are won.

While no team has yet proven they have the quality to outlast Shamrock Rovers over a full season, there is a good quantity of teams lining up to try and take them off their perch.

Watch Shamrock Rovers v Dundalk in the League of Ireland on Friday from 7.35pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player and follow a live blog on all matches RTÉ.ie/Sport and the RTÉ News app