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Keith Treacy: Pep Guardiola's temptation to over-think is main risk to Manchester City in Champions League final

Could Pep Guardiola over-think things in Istanbul?
Could Pep Guardiola over-think things in Istanbul?

"When you look at Guardiola's reaction, the outpouring of emotion, I think he knew that this was the trickiest game of the two."

From Keith Treacy's vantage point, Pep Guardiola's post-match elation after Saturday's FA Cup final win over derby rivals Manchester United betrayed the Manchester City manager's feelings about the final two staging points of their treble bid.

With two trophies in the bag, the Sky Blues now go into this Saturday night's Champions League final - live on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player - as heavy favourites against Inter Milan.

Guardiola has fallen upon a system spearheaded by Erling Haaland, featuring John Stones in midfield and without nominal wing-backs that has swept all before them during the run-in.

Thus far, the former Barcelona and Bayern Munich manager has not shown an inclination to try and fix what's not broken as he has done occasionally in past Champions League campaigns.

And as long as he avoids that temptation, City should have too much for Inter according to ex-Republic of Ireland midfielder Treacy.

"It's difficult to see any weaknesses anywhere. But the one thing I'd be worried about if I was a City supporter would be if Pep starts to over-think things," he told the RTÉ Soccer Podcast.

"Nine times out of 10, Manchester City's players are better than the other players that are on the pitch, so if they work as hard as them they'll win the game. It's as simple as that.

"But sometimes Pep just gets bogged down in these tactics. And I think if Inter Milan were to watch the FA Cup final, when you look at the likes of Bernardo Silva, Kevin De Bruyne, Jack Grealish and Erling Haaland, they didn't do a thing in the game. They were kept very, very quiet.

"It was Ilkay Gundogan who came out and got the two goals. People will say it was a tight game. I don't really buy that. I know it was a 2-1 result but I thought City were very comfortable. I thought United struggled."

And while Treacy can foresee a scenario where Inter Milan put in a typically outstanding Italian defensive display to thwart City in Istanbul, both he and ex-St Patrick's Athletic and Shelbourne midfielder Conan Byrne feel the Premier League side will be overwhelming favourites to win comfortably.

Simone Inzaghi has proven to be a cup specialist as a manager

However, Byrne pointed to Simone Inzaghi's good record in cup finals as a boon for Inter, with the Nerazzuri having already won this season's Coppa Italia decider against Europa Conference League finalists Fiorentina.

"I think what's going under the radar here is Simone Inzaghi has seven wins in seven finals as a manager," he said.

"And I know they're all Italian finals and they're probably favourites in them all but he knows how to win them and that's a very interesting stat."

However, City's current system is the trump card according to Byrne even if Inter employ catenaccio-style tactics.

"But I'm going to put my neck out here and I think Man City are going to win by three or four and the reason I say that is because of the shape," he said.

"The shape that Man City have, I feel in wide areas, they're going to destroy Inter. You have (Matteo) Darmian, (Alessandro) Bastoni and (Francesco) Acerbi as probably the three centre-backs, (Denzel) Dumfries right wing-back and I think in those situations you're going to have Darmian and Dumfries up against Grealish who is in absolutely scintillating form - kept quiet the other day by (Aaron) Wan-Bissaka who is probably one of the best one-v-one defenders in the Premier League - and (Federico) Di Marco at left wing-back. I just think with Man City's threat going forward, I think they're going to over-run them."

Watch the Champions League final, Manchester City v Inter Milan, on Saturday from 7pm on the RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player and follow a live blog on RTÉ.ie/Sport and the RTÉ News app

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