Bohemians have come back to the top of the League of Ireland Premier Division early in the 2023 season and they have done so by staying in front.
In his first season at Dalymount Park, Declan Devine and his side have been the success story of the year so far. They just hold a lead of four points but in a competitive league where only five points separates third from seventh, they have done well to stay clear at the summit for all bar two weeks.
They are having their best start since their remarkable 2008 league-winning season. Even then they had only two more points after 13 games, 30 rather than the current 28. Only once since 2017 has the season's champions had more than 28 points at this stage.
What has been most notable about this year’s Bohs has been their ability to maintain leads after scoring first. In doing so, they have turned a weakness into a strength.
Bohemians have scored the first goal in 10 of their 13 games to date, the joint-most in the league with Shamrock Rovers. They have converted 80% of those leads into wins. Only St. Pat’s have a better percentage, but they have only scored first four times. Meanwhile, rivals Shamrock Rovers have only won 60% of the games in which they found the net first.
|
Team |
SCORE FIRST - WIN |
SCORE FIRST - DRAW |
SCORE FIRST - LOSS |
SCORE FIRST - TOTAL |
SCORE FIRST WIN % |
|
BOHS |
8 |
1 |
1 |
10 |
80% |
|
CORK |
2 |
2 |
0 |
4 |
50% |
|
DERRY |
6 |
2 |
0 |
8 |
75% |
|
DROGHEDA |
3 |
2 |
0 |
5 |
60% |
|
DUNDALK |
4 |
1 |
0 |
5 |
80% |
|
ST. PAT’S |
4 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
100% |
|
SHAMROCK ROVERS |
6 |
4 |
0 |
10 |
60% |
|
SHELBOURNE |
3 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
50% |
|
SLIGO ROVERS |
4 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
67% |
|
UCD |
1 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
33% |
This is a major turnaround from the last two years at Dalymount Park. In 2022, the Gypsies took a lead first in over half of their games, 22. Only Shamrock Rovers (25) did so more often. But just 50% of the time they went on to win, a rate in which only Finn Harps trailed them.
It followed the year previous where 20 times they scored first (third-most) but only got the win 60% of the time. That was better than just two other teams. This caused the agony of losing the most points (19) in the final 15 minutes of games over that two-year span of any team.
This year’s Bohs is a return to previous form, in 2019 Bohs took the third-most leads and had the third-best conversion rate. They were even better a year later with a 100% record (level with Shamrock Rovers) from 10 games scoring first.
Much of the credit for this must go to having a defence able to hold out against teams looking to find a way back into games. For 482 minutes (second-most) played Bohs have been leading. Their improvement in goals conceded per game (from 1.28 to 0.85) is only bettered by Shelbourne so far in 2023.
Last year’s defence struggled for continuity. Four different goalkeepers were used while only one defender (Ciaran Kelly – 31) started more than 22 times. Declan Devine’s revamped back line has seen James Talbot play every minute along with Kacper Radkowski. Grant Horton has played every game with Paddy Kirk missing just one.
Despite these good overall returns, there has been a slight trend downward recently. The two times that a first goal hasn’t resulted in a win have come in the last four games. A 14th minute lead against St. Pat’s lasted only five minutes before ending in 3-2 defeat while a week ago UCD struck with an 88th minute equaliser.
This will be tested to the fullest against Shamrock Rovers in what is set to be a crucial Derby. Since the start of the 2020 season, in only 29 games have the opponents of Shamrock Rovers scored first. That’s the fewest for any team to play every season during that time. However, they have 11 wins from those 29 games which is five more than any other team. No lead is safe against Stephen Bradley’s men.
The below combines the years 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023:
|
TEAM |
NOT SCORE FIRST - WIN |
NOT SCORE FIRST - DRAW |
NOT SCORE FIRST - LOSS |
NOT SCORE FIRST – TOTAL |
NOT SCORE FIRST TO WIN % |
|
BOHS |
6 |
6 |
28 |
40 |
15% |
|
DERRY |
5 |
17 |
20 |
42 |
12% |
|
DUNDALK |
2 |
12 |
25 |
39 |
5% |
|
ST. PAT’S |
2 |
8 |
31 |
41 |
5% |
|
SHAMROCK ROVERS |
11 |
6 |
12 |
29 |
38% |
|
SLIGO ROVERS |
6 |
6 |
36 |
48 |
13% |
That is not to say matches between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers are the same as a regular league game. Coming from behind is not always as easy. The last time either team won a game despite conceding first when these fierce rivals have faced was just over five years ago when Bohs won 2-1 in Tallaght with a 90th minute Darragh Leahy winner.
Shamrock Rovers last did so in July 2016 during a 3-1 win over a Bohs team playing with 10 men since the 20th minute. Before that you must go back to May 2009 with Gary Twigg scoring in the 88th and 90th minutes to reverse a lead Jason Byrne gave Bohs in the 15th minute.
Overall, 10 of the last 16 league meeting between Bohs and Shamrock Rovers have had a 1-0 scoreline. This includes both games played in Tallaght Stadium last year. Clearly, the first goal is most often the most important.
When these two Dublin heavyweights clash, landing the first blow could be crucial as it has often proved to be a knockout. Don’t be surprised if it is another tight affair on Friday as both teams try to avoid going behind.
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