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'Swiss model' won't fix predictable group stage status quo

The match ball ahead of Liverpool's last outing against Porto when the Reds had already qualified for the last-16
The match ball ahead of Liverpool's last outing against Porto when the Reds had already qualified for the last-16

If this season's Champions League group stage was a Netflix series, it would be cancelled after one distinctly underwhelming season.

A mildly promising pilot episode with an obvious story arc that would have you jumping ship long before episode six.

In a week where Formula One has set up a thrilling finale to cap a scintillating season, this week's conclusion to the first phase of UEFA's elite club competition lacks little of that ingredient that helps to hold interest: suspense.

Of the 16 places up for grabs for the next phase, 11 have already been confirmed with all of the likely contenders to go all the way safely through as expected.

Liverpool achieved their aim with two weeks to spare and the rest of the Premier League sides are also into the last-16 with a match still to play - even if Manchester United made it a little hard for themselves until the victory at Villarreal confirmed them as Group F winners.

Bayern Munich and Juventus also sailed through and while Real Madrid did suffer a shock against Moldova's Sheriff, they are also through with a bit to spare, alongside Inter Milan.

Only Group G (Lille, Red Bull Salzburg, Sevilla and Wolfsburg) is completely in the balance, and none of those sides are a real threat when it comes to making a dent in the competition's latter stages.

Apart from that, as well as seeing whether a severely diminished Barcelona can avoid an early exit and finding out which former winner/finalist can join Liverpool in progressing from what at least was an initially compelling Group B, the main bit of housekeeping will be in regards to seedings for the last-16 draw.

Group A served up PSG and City but the two other sides were unable to keep pace despite the Parisians' teething problems

None of which is particularly riveting for the neutral, aside from the presence of a Paris Saint-Germain this time in Pot 2 which could potentially guarantee at least one last-16 cracker - unless they land a Group G winner.

And there is no obvious structural solution in sight to make the group stage more interesting. UEFA's own approach, the 'Swiss model' which will replace the current 32-team format, is due to begin in 2024.

Much of the attention on that focused on the increase to 36 teams and the provenance of the four extra teams who would qualify - the suspicion being that it offered a couple of backdoor routes for major clubs who failed to qualify from their respective leagues.

The other point that jumped out was the increase in group stage matches from six to 10 (five home and five away) for each club, guaranteeing more revenue in their coffers and those of the governing body.

But given a seeding system would still be in place, one would still expect the same sides that routinely reach the knockout stages to progress - either automatically among the top eight sides in the 'league' or among the next 16 sides that would duke it out in a play-off round for the prize of meeting that aforementioned top eight.

And more games just means more margin for error for a big club that, like Manchester United or Barcelona this season, makes an underwhelming start or stumbles along the way. It also favours the clubs with deeper squads who can rotate in an already groaning schedule, under the weight of more - but not necessarily truly meaningful - matches. So to say it in another way, the exact same elite clubs are at an advantage.

Until the gap between the elite clubs and the also-rans from Europe's smaller leagues is addressed - a fanciful notion given the collective bargaining power of the 'haves' and the fact that the likes of Juventus chairman Andrea Agnelli, who was part of the failed Super League breakaway, favoured the 'Swiss model' - the group stage will continue to offer up only the occasional turn-up for the books in regards to sides plotting a path to the knockout stage.

So the inevitable would still be likely to occur, just in a longer time-frame and with a few more 'episodes' to play out the narrative.

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