Decade of goal woes on Ireland's shoulders

Brian Cowen was Taoiseach, Anglo-Irish bank was still operational, the Aviva Stadium was a building site, I Gotta Feeling was in the charts and Giovanni Trappatoni was managing the Irish football team against his native Italy.

A 2-2 draw sealed a spot for Ireland in the World Cup qualification play-offs in October 2009. Who knew what was to come? 

Two things happened that night that have not been repeated in the decade since. One, Glenn Whelan scored.

The other, Ireland scored two goals from play at home to a team ranked inside the top 100 of the FIFA rankings.

Whelan has taken more than his fair share of criticism and answered it, so we will look at the issue Ireland have had in scoring goals at home.

Below is the 30 competitive home fixtures played by Ireland since with the number of goals scored. The average is 1.4 per game. Excluding the 2014 demolition of Gibraltar and it is 1.21. Against teams ranked inside the top 100 at the time of the game, it's just 0.86.

A win is almost certainly required when Ireland face Denmark on home soil on the final night of Group D qualifiers.

Given Ireland's poor scoring record, the hope may be that win could be attained with a 1-0 scoreline like 2015’s famous victory over Germany.

The last eight competitive home wins have all had a clean sheet.

However that will be far from easy.

In the last four years, Denmark (ranked 14 in the world) have an impressive scoring record away from home with 26 goals from 11 competitive games.

That includes the five-goal rout that still gives the 50,000 in attendance at the Aviva that evening nightmares. They also put three past fellow qualification contenders Switzerland in March.

Ireland’s lack of bite in front of goal also makes scoring even more challenging.

Only 12 of the 55 teams attempting to qualify have had fewer than Ireland’s 21 shots on target in these qualifiers. 10 of those 21 shots were in the two games against Gibraltar.

Just 25% of shots taken by Ireland in the seven games so far have been on target. That only beats Moldova (24%), Andorra (23%) and Malta (19%) for shooting accuracy.

Only 11 teams convert a lower percentage of their total shots into goals than Ireland’s 7%. None of those 11 teams are in contention for qualification.

Of the four recent meetings with Denmark, Ireland average less than four attempts at goal per game with 1.5 on target. The Dane’s averages are 10 and four.

The squad announced for this fixture contains eight players listed as forwards. It will be from this group that Mick McCarthy will have to decide who gives the best chance of scoring goals.

They have a combined 48 caps and three goals. Two of those three goals came in friendlies and against much weaker opposition than Denmark (Bulgaria and USA).

Since that squad was announced, Aaron Connolly has been ruled out with injury. Looking at performances at club level this season, Connolly appeared the best option to increase shots taken at goal. He averages 3.5 shots per 90 minutes. That is a full shot more than any other.

David McGoldrick produced a key goal against Switzerland and is the only player hitting the target with more than 50% of his efforts. However he has failed to convert any of those into a goal and is currently fourth in the Premier League for most shots taken without scoring - 16.

His club-mate Callum Robinson has managed one goal but his rates of 33% of shots on target and 8% resulting in goals are low. They are well down from his 2018-19 Championship season with Preston North End.

James Collins has the most playing time of any. He has used that to score the most goals at five with good shooting rates (41% on target and 14% goal conversion). With seven of the nine goals scored under Mick McCarthy resulting from crosses, his threat there presses his case.

Sean Maguire was once seen as the best hope for the future of Irish goalscoring but used predominantly as a winger for Preston this year his numbers are solid if not spectacular (30% on target and 11% goal conversion).

It is difficult to assess Troy Parrott given his lack of senior football, his debut on Thursday will offer some insight.

Scott Hogan does have three goals but in limited playing time. Likewise Alan Judge has not been a regular starter.

None of these players’ numbers demand selection. In order to find the necessary goals to win the same McCarthy may have to rely on a team effort to get the job done.

Set-pieces, where Shane Duffy (Premier League’s top-scoring centre-back in 2018/19 with five goals) or John Egan can contribute, should be a major point of emphasis especially given Ireland’s record of scoring from crosses.

If someone can score that crucial goal it will put them in history with famous qualification goals scored by the likes of Alan McLoughlin and Jason McAteer in decades past.

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