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As it stands: Euro 2020 play-off permutations

The Henri Delaunay Trophy
The Henri Delaunay Trophy

Despite a disappointing haul of one point from two games in Tbilisi and Geneva, the Republic of Ireland's Euro 2020 fate still remains in their own hands.

Remarkably, Ireland still top Group D despite scoring only six goals in seven games, three of those coming against Gibraltar.

Victory over Denmark in Dublin on 18 November would bring Ireland level with the Danes on 15 points and likely guarantee their progress on the head-to-head rule.

However, if Switzerland managed to draw at home to Georgia three days before that and then beat Gibraltar, all teams would be on 15 points and ranked by cumulative goal difference in matches between the three teams.

In this scenario, Ireland would need to beat Denmark by two goals or more to claim the second and final qualifying spot.

It's not overly pessimistic to suggest defeating a team that hammered us 5-1 two years is a tall order.

So what then, if Ireland draw or lose against the Danes? Is that it?

Not quite. UEFA's convoluted Nations League system, which has successfully transformed international friendlies from almost totally pointless to only largely pointless, will deliver the final four Euro 2020 teams via play-offs next March, one each from Nations Leagues A, B, C and D.

Martin O'Neill's Republic of Ireland won two points in four Nations League games

But didn't we fail to win a game in our League B campaign I hear you struggle to remember? Correct, in fact, Ireland were so poor that it hastened the end of Martin O'Neill's time in charge. 

So how could we still be in contention? Effectively, because all the countries ahead of us who would otherwise have contested the four-team play-offs will have already qualified.

As it stands, England, Czech Republic, Ukraine, Portugal, Netherlands, Germany, Republic of Ireland, Denmark, Croatia, Hungary, Spain, Sweden, Poland, Austria, Turkey, France, Belgium, Russia, Italy and Finland are in the automatic qualifying spots.

Predicting the last two rounds of fixtures, if we imagine the only results impacting on the top places are that Ireland don't beat Denmark and Wales get the better of Hungary, then Switzerland will replace Ireland and Wales the Hungarians. 

This would leave us with the following 16 teams for the play-offs: Iceland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovakia, Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Norway, Serbia, Bulgaria, Israel, Hungary, Romania, Georgia, North Macedonia, Kosovo, Belarus.

The groupings are subject to certain conditions, such as Nations League group winners not being able to face a team from a higher league and the 'paths' being constituted completely from teams of a single league where possible.

A team's final Nations League ranking (the Republic of Ireland were 23rd) is also taken into account.

In Path B in this scenario, Bosnia (ranked 13th), who the Republic of Ireland beat in a play-off to qualify for Euro 2016, would play Northern Ireland (24th) at home and Slovakia (21st) would host the Republic. A draw (22 November) will be made to determine which of the one-leg semi-final winners would host the play-off final.

Possible play-off paths

A: Iceland, Three from Bulgaria/Israel/Hungary/Romania.

B: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovakia, Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland

C: Scotland, Norway, Serbia, One from Bulgaria/Israel/Hungary/Romania.

D: Georgia, North Macedonia, Kosovo, Belarus

Of course, there may still be some shocks in the conclusion of Euro 2020 qualifying, which could potentially whoosh Ireland up to Path A and the arguably stiffer test of Euro 2016 quarter-finalists Iceland.

So it's probably best that Mick McCarthy's men just get the job done against Denmark and then we won't need to tax ourselves any further with the brain-aching possibilities.

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