"Changing hasn’t worked for this club". That was the response of Stephen Bradley to the calls for his removal following the 5-2 humbling to Dundalk at Tallaght Stadium on the first evening of June this year. Yet change is exactly what he has brought since then, and to positive effect.
The defeat left Shamrock Rovers in the bottom half of the table, 23 points behind the league leaders and with more losses than wins (eight to seven).
They were as close to the relegation play-off position as the European qualification places.
Eight days after Dundalk marched their way through the Hoops lines of defence and blasted five goals past a hapless, and not-seen-since, Tomer Chencinski.
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Bradley made five changes to that team in the next game - the most he has made all season. It brought a five-goal win.
Since that Dundalk loss, only the Lilywhites have taken more points in the SSE Airtricity League (30-28), they are the third-highest scorers (trailing Bohemians by one goal though they have played one game fewer) and have conceded the fewest goals (two).
Two of the changes made for that game are of particular note in reflecting the ideology which is being promoted at the club in the last few years. First league starts were given to 16-year-old goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu and 17-year-old midfielder Brandon Kavanagh.
Bazunu came in behind a defence which had kept four clean sheets in 12 games. He would play just four times in the league and has a 100% clean sheet record. That brought three wins and a draw to finish against Cork City at Turner’s Cross.
He produced the most memorable moment of that game by saving a Kieran Sadlier penalty.
Experience has since taken over between the sticks in the returning Alan Mannus and it may well transpire that when he leaves the club for Manchester City, he does so without ever having conceded a league goal.
Kavanagh would also make an immediate impact. On debut, he provided the assist for Graham Burke’s final goal at Tallaght Stadium. He has added two more since.
In games he has played Shamrock Rovers average 2.33 goals per game compared to 1.5 when he has not.
They are also yet to concede in any of his six starts. As a result they average 1.17 more points per game when he starts which puts him among league-leaders in that category.
After that first win Bradley explained his comfort with putting in Bazunu and Kavanagh respectively:
"At 16, especially goalkeepers, you don’t want to throw them in that early but sometimes you just can’t hold them back. Sometimes they’re ready and he’s ready.
"He does things with the ball that not many people can do. We forget that he is just 17 years of age and he’s playing men’s football and it’s a walk in the park to him."
Another injection of youth also came into the side a few weeks after the Dundalk humiliation in 21-year-old playmaker Dylan Watts.
His impact was quick; in his second start he broke a deadlocked game with Sligo Rovers to send his team to victory. Watts was also instrumental in ending Dundalk’s unbeaten home record. He made an assist and scored the winner in a 2-1 victory.
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In each of the next two games he again had both a goal and an assist. Only Conan Byrne (three times), Graham Cummins (five times) and Michael Duffy (six times) have done this but not in three consecutive games. Shamrock Rovers earn 1.09 more points per game with him in the side.
Bradley commented: "He can do everything in midfield – he can start the game, play at the top of the game and score goals. His ability gives a different dimension to us."
The trend of the club’s younger players contributing to better results has been there all year.
Sam Bone’s 10 starts have led to eight wins and one draw with a goal difference of +25. 1.14 more points per game were earned when he plays. He is just 20-years-old.
2017 PFAI Young player of the Year and double Shamrock Rovers Young Player of the Year Trevor Clarke was in his fifth start of the season. It would end early with a 31st minute injury. In a small sample size of games, the Hoops scored more per game, conceded less and won an extra 0.81 points when Clarke started.
After his injury Bradley said: "Trevor is a top player. Any team in the country would miss him and we’re no different."
During the off-season Bradley shocked many by allowing right-back Simon Madden to depart. He explained the decision as being necessary as they were conceding too many goals relative to the top two:
"We looked at where we needed to get stronger and, if you looked at our goals against last year, that was one of the areas. We needed to fix that."
Age was not stated as a reason but joining 30-year-old Madden in leaving was 28-year-old David Webster.
Lee Grace (25) has missed only one game since coming in late in the 2017 season. Ethan Boyle (21) has taken over from Madden just missing three.
The results have been clear with a reduction in goals conceded per game down from 1.24 to 0.75. This year’s figure is fewer than any since the 2011 league-winning year (0.67) and betters the 2010 (0.94) when the league was also won.
Shamrock Rovers are at 18 clean sheets so far, 10 more than 2017 and one more than 2011. Only Dundalk have better defensive statistics this year.
So, do Shamrock Rovers really do better with younger players? In league wins under Stephen Bradley, the team’s average age has been 24.57. In losses, it is 24.66. Clearly there is no significant difference in those numbers but it shows that experience is not necessarily essential to get wins.
The fact that Dundalk and Cork City are two of the most experienced sides in the division shows the benefits of having it. The only teams younger than Shamrock Rovers are Bray Wanderers and Sligo Rovers.
With an influx of younger players boosting results and an improved defence, what has caused Shamrock Rovers to fail to challenge for the league title?
One quick answer is that their kryptonite and been coloured red and black and been in the shape of fiercest rivals Bohemians. One point from 12 against them is three fewer than any other club.
Removing results against Bohemians would leave Shamrock Rovers just four points behind Cork City.
Obviously this is a major hypothetical but it demonstrates the cost of having a bogey team, especially when playing each team four times. They have matched up well against the top two taking eight points from seven games.
The goals Bohemians have scored do not provide major clues. Three have come from set-pieces and two from crosses. However in total this season, Shamrock Rovers have only conceded five from set-pieces (league fewest) and seven from crosses (only trailing Cork City and Dundalk). So it does not appear that Bohemians exploited a weakness in how they found the net.
A trend is visible however when looking at when these goals were scored. Bohemians have scored in minutes 68, 70, 73, 81, 84, 88 and 90. That is a startling amount of late goals.
When Bradley took over mid-way through 2016, they had not conceded a late goal (defined as last 15 minutes) for 23 games and had only conceded one in 50.
In his fourth game as manager they conceded a 77th minute goal. Across the 2017 and 2018 seasons 32% of goals conceded have been in the last 15 minutes – that is the highest percentage in the league. Since the Dundalk loss discussed above they have not conceded later than the 68th minute.
These late goals have contributed to their being 11 games since last February in which Shamrock Rovers were first scorers but failed to win (joint-most). In the five games it has happened this season, one trend is noticeable across four – the substitution of Ronan Finn.
- Against Bohemians he was subbed in the 73rd minute with the score at 1-1. They lost 3-1.
- Against Limerick he was subbed in the 79th minute with a 1-0 lead. They drew 1-1.
- Against Bohemians again he was subbed when 1-0 up in the 84th minute. Another 1-1 draw.
- Level at 1-1 at half-time against Dundalk he was subbed. It finished 5-2 to Dundalk.
That’s eight goals conceded in 79 minutes. Injuries were reported in the first Bohemians loss and against Dundalk. However the captain has been substituted 10 times this season which is more than is seen among players who play similar roles with other teams.
Without injury, it is a questionable tactic. Since the 5-2 Dundalk loss Finn has been replaced twice but they have been when games were secured.
Bradley spoke in June 2017 about game management being important to his team: "There are times when you do have to manage games for five or ten minutes and that is an area that we could improve on, but that comes from the players being around each other for a long time.
"We’re already doing that [improving game management]. Can we put more of them away? Of course we can.
"We could be more ruthless in front of goal."
It was also something mentioned as an issue by Ronan Finn a month before: "We’ve learned a lot after the first series of games, how to manage games and what we have to do when we go a goal up.
"There are times when we’ve played well and lost and then times, like against Bohs, when we haven’t played great and won."
Yet almost a year later after blowing the one-goal lead in the final 20 minutes to Bohemians at Tallaght Stadium Bradley was again left highlighting that aspect of play as an issue: "As a group we know we didn’t perform but we still should manage the game better and at least win the game from a winning position.
"That’s a disappointing aspect of the whole night, even though you don’t play well, you’re 1-0 up and could have been 2-0 up but then lose the game."
Again the following week after allowing Limerick to take a point despite playing from behind for 71 minutes of the game: "We just need to take our chances. Against Limerick it could have been four or five so we need to be ruthless. We create chances in most games and we need to take them."
Prior to 1 June when scoring first they went on to score the next goal of the game four times, but conceded the next goal eight times. Since then, after scoring first, they get the second goal six times from seven.
Off-season efforts to improve defensively have borne fruit and the addition of young talent to the squad has improved results.
In order to eradicate the late goals and lost leads it will be interesting to see if Shamrock Rovers choose to continue to follow the path of youth.
The form of the last four months has shown they are capable of bridging the large divide from Cork City and Dundalk to the rest of the league.
This Friday they will be favourites to overcome a Cork team with an eye on the FAI Cup semi-final.
Whether they are favourites for the fixture next season remains to be seen.
Follow Dundalk v St Patrick's Athletic this Friday (kick-off 7.45pm) via our live blog on RTÉ.ie/sport and the RTÉ News Now app, or watch live on RTÉ2, with updates from Shamrock Rovers v Cork City, including match highlights.
