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Champions League final: Liverpool can stun Madrid, but champions are firm favourites

The NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium will be rocking come 7.45pm
The NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium will be rocking come 7.45pm

There will be goals. After last weekend’s drab FA Cup final, this is a game to genuinely get excited about as two of Europe’s most decorated and attack-minded teams go head-to-head for the biggest prize in club football.

It’s a final that few would have predicted at the start of the knockout phase, with both teams having been written off by the pundits and analysts at the mid-stage of the season.

Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool were nowhere near the conversation for the final at the beginning of the campaign and their progress to the last 16 didn’t suggest that was likely to change.

They're relaxed in Real Madrid before this final. They've never been so calm and confident in the club before a final than now.

Their early form in the group stages certainly didn’t hint at what was to come. Twice throwing away the lead in their opening game to draw 2-2 with Sevilla before only claiming a draw away to Spartak Moscow, it was an inauspicious start for Klopp’s side.

Two thumping wins over minnows Maribor set them on the path to qualification but defensive issues came to the fore when they threw away a three-goal lead against Sevilla away and it wasn’t until the final group game that they secured their progress to the knock-out phase.

With a shaky defence, a manager struggling to settle on one of two unreliable goalkeepers and then losing the man considered to be their most creative player to Barcelona as Philippe Coutinho moved on, few gave the Reds much of chance of being involved past the quarter-finals.

Enter Virgil van Dijk and Mohamed Salah.

Egyptian international Salah has arguably been the stand-out performer across Europe this season, leading a reshaped Liverpool front-line after the exit of Coutinho in January.

With 24 goals since Coutinho’s final game for Liverpool, Salah has been in unstoppable form and helped his side to shrug off the loss of the Brazilian star.

It’s been those goals and those of his fellow attackers, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino, which has fired Liverpool to the final as the Reds scored 17 times in their three knock-out ties to book their place in Kyiv.

At the back, van Dijk has made a similar, if less spectacular, impact, helping to bring stability and even confidence to a defence which had long be considered brittle, vulnerable and prone to awful gaffes.

Since the Dutchman’s January arrival, Liverpool have conceded 21 goals in 24 games – not exactly the stuff to make George Graham’s Arsenal record look weak – but a huge improvement and Van Dijk has brought a confidence and resilience to the back line.

Likewise Real Madrid have upped their performances since January, a time when the future of manager Zinedine Zidane was very much in question, with open speculation about his successor and when the axe would fall, as it looked increasingly likely to do so.

Having failed to get off the ground domestically and seeing bitter rivals Barcelona streak away at the top of La Liga, Zidane’s men finished a disappointing second in their Champions League group, behind Tottenham and had been drawn to face the highly fancied Paris St Germain.

But Madrid have a special relationship with the Champions League and they made light work of the PSG challenge before going on to grind out narrow victories over Juventus and Bayern Munich.

In both of those ties Madrid were under the cosh for long periods and appeared to be the weaker team, but they somehow managed to emerge victorious despite never being at their best.

That ability to grind out results in the biggest games comes from experience and Madrid have a huge advantage over Liverpool in that regard. Zidane and most of his team have been here before and crucially have won at this level before.

A Champions League final is uncharted territory for the Liverpool squad, if not manager Jurgen Klopp who finished as a runner-up with Borussia Dortmund in the 2013 final.

Much has been made of Klopp’s record in finals and the fact is that he’s had one win from six finals as a manager but most of those were against stronger and more established teams. There’s a feeling this time out that the sides are more evenly matched.

So what will Liverpool do to ensure their manager isn’t on the losing side again? Well it will largely be what they’ve done all year.

Expect the same frantic, high pressure start we’ve seen from Liverpool for much of the season with their front three closing down the Madrid defence high up the pitch and trying to force them into making mistakes.

Just as Liverpool have had their issues at the back, so have Madrid, and the amount of genuine chances they coughed up against Bayern Munich in the semi-finals should be enough to give the Reds some real encouragement.

Brazilian fullback Marcelo has been pinpointed as a weak link in the Madrid defence and he often appears to be a frustrated winger who often finds himself caught out of position when Real lose the ball. Don’t be surprised to see Klopp target his side of the pitch in the early stages with long, angled passes from midfield in behind him for Salah and Mane to chase.

Liverpool have caught out better teams than Madrid with their high pressure blitz this season but they do tend to run out of steam given the physically demanding nature of that approach and that’s where Madrid can really punish them.

It might not be overstating things to say that Liverpool may need to be two goals up going into the final 30 minutes of the game if they want to lift the Cup.

Madrid have the experience, the guile and are streetwise enough to find a way to get their way hands on their third consecutive title but there is a sneaking suspicion that they're under-estimating their opponents.

Reports coming out of Madrid would already have you believe that Los Blancos have this one wrapped up, with confidence levels crossing into arrogance. "There isn't any sensation of fear in Madrid about Liverpool - among the directors, among the players," says Spanish journalist Diego Torres.

"They're relaxed in Real Madrid before this final. They've never been so calm and confident in the club before a final than now. This final is the easiest final they have in front of them, all of them - [club president] Florentino Perez, the captains. Everyone."

Even the normally level headed Tony Kroos appears to be getting caught up in the Madrid hype, blithely saying: "It is a great achievement for Liverpool to reach a final and to have a chance to win the Champions League."

The biggest mistake that Madrid can make is to take Liverpool lightly and if they’re not right on top of their game from the first whistle, they could well find themselves two or three goals behind before they get going.

What makes this such a fascinating final is that should that happen and Liverpool race into a lead, there’s still the belief that Madrid have the ability to chase them down and Premier League side have the tendency to give up chances.

So expect goals and plenty of them in a game that’s going to be a lot closer than many observers, both neutral and Madridistas believe.

Liverpool can win this game and they can lift the European Cup, but they may need a little bit of help and complacency from Real Madrid in order to do so.

Keep up to date with the Champions League final with our live blog on RTÉ Sport online and the News Now App. Live coverage on RTÉ2 Television from 7pm.

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